WilkesboroDude Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 The progression of oceanic conditions in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific towards El Niño has been interrupted by a marked cooling over the past two weeks, and the onset of a full-fledged El Niño event this fall and winter is now in considerable doubt. Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific were approximately 0.5°C above average--the threshold for a weak El Niño event--from the beginning of July through mid-September. However, for the past two weeks, these temperatures have fallen to just 0.2°C above average--solidly in the neutral category. In addition, over the past three months, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the Pacific have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño (one exception: some stronger westerly surface winds than usual have developed near New Guinea and Indonesia, which could act to push warm water eastwards towards South America in coming months and tip the ocean more towards El Niño.) NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) classified conditions as being neutral in their monthly El Niño discussion, issued October 4, but continued their El Niño watch, giving a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place for the October-November-December period. This is a big reduction from 69% odds given in theirSeptember forecast. NOAA's final take on the matter: Due to the recent slowdown in the development of El Niño, it is not clear whether a fully coupled El Niño will emerge. The majority of models indicate that borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions will continue, and about half suggest that El Niño could develop, but remain weak. The official forecast therefore favors the continuation of borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions into Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13, with the possibility of strengthening during the next few months. - Dr. Jeff Masters http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 5, 2012 Author Share Posted October 5, 2012 Don't shoot the messenger. (flame suit on) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Neutral FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Based on that any new analogs for this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 5, 2012 Author Share Posted October 5, 2012 Based on that any new analogs for this winter? I still have good hope about this winter. There is just no way in my mind how it could possibly behave as bad as last winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 5, 2012 Author Share Posted October 5, 2012 The tropics may take advantage of this soon...Dr. Masters thinks 2 more storms could form through November this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Pretty sure la nada winters aren't too fruitful around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Don't shoot the messenger. (flame suit on) I have a question I am curious about. I know the NWS redoes average temps for 30 year periods every 10 years. Is anything done similarly with average ocean temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 5, 2012 Author Share Posted October 5, 2012 Pretty sure la nada winters aren't too fruitful around here. Neutral looks more reasonable than la nada... I have a question I am curious about. I know the NWS redoes average temps for 30 year periods every 10 years. Is anything done similarly with average ocean temps? I am not too sure. I googled and came across this. http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 I am not too sure. I googled and came across this. http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/ That's interesting. I seems as if they are in the early stages of getting a handle on ocean trends based on many more data points than we have had previously. I didn't see anything about averages per say but I bookmarked the site so I can keep an eye on it. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Climo models continue to hint at a weak nino persisting through February before starting to weaken. That goes along well with Nino climo during wintertime. Started doing the winter forecast research today. Hoping to do much better than last year and want to include more indepth stuff this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 A weak El Nino is really what we want in the SE anyway. Moderate El Ninos tend to overpower the Arctic Air. Give me a split flow with -NAO and -AO along with a weak El Nino. Good times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 9, 2012 Author Share Posted October 9, 2012 Look off Ecuador. El Nino may truly be faltering. Anybody think this winter will be Neutral? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Look off Ecuador. El Nino may truly be faltering. Anybody think this winter will be Neutral? We don't want a Moderate to Strong East centered El Nino anyway but one that is weak and central or west based, like this one appears to be. When there is warm water all the way to Peru, we get very mild winters here. A weak El Nino or a La Nada with a negative NAO is when we get our coldest and sowiest winters in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 We will have an el nino. The ghost of Chris Farley told me so. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Climo models continue to hint at a weak nino persisting through February before starting to weaken. That goes along well with Nino climo during wintertime. Started doing the winter forecast research today. Hoping to do much better than last year and want to include more indepth stuff this time around. Do the climo models show a rebound from the current neutral readings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 is there not a lag between the effects? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 9, 2012 Author Share Posted October 9, 2012 We don't want a Moderate to Strong East centered El Nino anyway but one that is weak and central or west based, like this one appears to be. When there is warm water all the way to Peru, we get very mild winters here. A weak El Nino or a La Nada with a negative NAO is when we get our coldest and sowiest winters in the SE. Right...right...but I am having considerable doubt we even have a weak El Nino. Neutral is looking somewhat likely. is there not a lag between the effects? I think the lag is over with after coming out of that strong La Nina. The neutral / weak to nonexistent El Nino pattern is here IMO. Do the climo models show a rebound from the current neutral readings? I don't see any significant rebounds to El Nino or La Nina. Very little change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Someone cue Larry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 10, 2012 Author Share Posted October 10, 2012 NAO has a more direct influence on NC snowfall than ENSO. NAO had the most significant impact on snow days. Even in winter months that featured La Niña conditions (typically warm and dry), combined with a negative NAO, only February saw a decrease in snow days, which suggests that the NAO has a more direct influence on NC snowfall than ENSO. Excluding March, winter months that averaged a negative NAO experienced at least a 25% increase in the number of snow days compared to the 52 year average, while positive NAO months had at least a 25% decrease in snow days. Winter months in NC that average a negative NAO see a significant increase in snow days. http://www.nc-climat...NC_Snowfall.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 NAO has a more direct influence on NC snowfall than ENSO. NAO had the most significant impact on snow days. Even in winter months that featured La Niña conditions (typically warm and dry), combined with a negative NAO, only February saw a decrease in snow days, which suggests that the NAO has a more direct influence on NC snowfall than ENSO. Excluding March, winter months that averaged a negative NAO experienced at least a 25% increase in the number of snow days compared to the 52 year average, while positive NAO months had at least a 25% decrease in snow days. Winter months in NC that average a negative NAO see a significant increase in snow days. http://www.nc-climat...NC_Snowfall.php Seconded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 We will have an el nino. The ghost of Chris Farley told me so. Lol. LOL.....funniest thing I have seen all day!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Folks, 1) The chance of not getting an official Nino this fall/winter (no getting 5 trimonths (corrected data) in a row of +0.5+) has obviously increased in recent weeks after a weak Nino had been looking highly likely to me. Based on the weekly patterns of 1991 and 1994, I'm not yet giving up on weeklies getting back into weak Nino territory. Also, the weak Nino of 1939-40, which followed a weak Nina, did have a cooling in Oct. in region 3.4. Oct. was the coolest month since June as the anom. dropped to near or below +0.3. However, those autumns had solid -SOI months. Admittedly, I still see no solidly -SOI period at least til 10/22 per the latest Euro. That admittedly has me concerned. Then again, 1904-5, which was a weak Nino that had followed a Nina, had small +SOI's in Aug., Sep, and Oct. after moderate -SOI's in June and July. These +SOI months didn't stop that Nino from developing. Then Nov. came in with a strong -SOI. 1968-9 was another weak Nino that followed a Nina. It didn't have a solidly -SOI month until 1/1969! Finally, the 1986-7 moderate Nino had a +6.6 SOI in Oct. Bottom line: despite the recent 3.4 cooling, no good string of -SOI's, and no solid string of -SOI's expected at least until 10/22, I'm not at all giving up on weak Nino anom.'s returning in 3.4. 2) Here is a link to animation over the last two weeks of SST anom.'s: http://www.esrl.noaa....anim.week.html It looks to me like the PDO has been rising quite a bit. I assume this is due to the recent -EPO. It looks to me like the PDO may now be near or above -1. Then again, that NOAA PDO table had a further drop in Sep. vs. Aug. to -2.82. So, what do I know? We'll have to see what happens with the Oct. readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Bottom line: despite the recent 3.4 cooling, no good string of -SOI's, and no solid string of -SOI's expected at least until 10/22, I'm not at all giving up on weak Nino anom.'s returning in 3.4. http://www.esrl.noaa....anim.week.html It looks to me like the PDO has been rising quite a bit. I assume this is due to the recent -EPO. It looks to me like the PDO may now be near or above -1. Nino 3.4 has resumed warming after having steadied out for the last few days based on five day averages. I estimate that it has just warmed 0.06 C (not 0.6C) and looks to warm more as the week progresses. The warming is occuring from two directions: from the NE and from the west (a squeeze of sorts). So, a further warming in next Monday's number from the just reported +0.3 C is starting to become more likely. We're currently in a crucial time as far as getting a weak Nino peak this fall/winter. Warming in western 3.4 is also strongly suggested on this animation: http://www.esrl.noaa....anim.week.html Folks, The weak Nino may have been struggling to stay alive long enough to make it official, but it is not dead yet by any means. Nino 3.4 warmed further. Today's release (for the prior cal. week) has it at +0.5 vs. +0.3 last week and +0.1 two weeks ago. Niño 4 just warmed from +0.5 to +0.7. More net warming over the next 2-3 weeks will be crucial to getting an official weak Nino peak this fall/winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Folks, The weak Nino may have been struggling to stay alive long enough to make it official, but it is not dead yet by any means. Nino 3.4 warmed further. Today's release (for the prior cal. week) has it at +0.5 vs. +0.3 last week and +0.1 two weeks ago. Niño 4 just warmed from +0.5 to +0.7. More net warming over the next 2-3 weeks will be crucial to getting an official weak Nino peak this fall/winter. This is crazy - looks like an El Nino in the western basin, and La Nina in the eastern basin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 This is crazy - looks like an El Nino in the western basin, and La Nina in the eastern basin Holy cow. Ella Nino? I dated her. She was hot sometimes and cold other times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Holy cow. Ella Nino? I dated her. She was hot sometimes and cold other times. Good one JB...probably how winter will be too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Good one JB...probably how winter will be too. Based on the very impressive Asian snowcover as well as the recent strongly -AO, the odds of a -AO this winter have become a good bit higher than normal. A -AO winter would favor a -NAO winter. If there actually is a -NAO winter coming, if a weak Nino can actually be attained, and if the PDO (which has warmed considerably since Sep. 10) can warm even further such that it averages positive for DJF, the odds of a very cold or even historically cold winter become much higher than normal. The combo of weak El Nino following La Nina, -NAO averaged during DJF, and +PDO averaged during DJF has historically been the best combo by far for very cold SE US winters. Even if the PDO were to remain slightly negative, the chances for a cold winter would still be a good bit higher than normal if the weak Nino is attained. If we don't get the weak Nino and instead get neutral positive, things would be more wide open. However, a neutral positive ENSO, -NAO, and +PDO could still yield a very cold winter based on history. The chances just wouldn't be as high. 1935-6 was neutral positive ENSOwise, it had a -NAO, and it had a +PDO. That was a very cold winter for much of the SE US (5th coldest on record at KATL)/much of the country, and it was a very wet winter for the SE US. KATL had two major ZR's and a major S that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Well, with little or no, chance for a record tonight, we need something! Nice work there, Dr. Larry. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Folks, The weak Nino may have been struggling to stay alive long enough to make it official, but it is not dead yet by any means. Nino 3.4 warmed further. Today's release (for the prior cal. week) has it at +0.5 vs. +0.3 last week and +0.1 two weeks ago. Niño 4 just warmed from +0.5 to +0.7. More net warming over the next 2-3 weeks will be crucial to getting an official weak Nino peak this fall/winter. I'm trying my best, Tony. Looking at today's 5 day averaged 3.4 SST anom. map, there is now noticeable warming occurring in Nino 3.4 west of 150W and to the west of Nino 3.4 in Nino 4. I expect this to translate into further warming in the days to come. As a result as of now, I'm already leaning to further warming in the upcoming Monday weekly release for 3.4 to a minimum of +0.6. The weak Nino is far from dead and is putting up a good fight to come back just in time. We'll see how it evolves over the next 2-3 weeks, a very crucial period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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