Isotherm Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 ^ 08-09 .. Don't tease me bro Was that year good in PHL? I thought they were sub normal 08-09, NYC/CNJ we were just near average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Was that year good in PHL? I thought they were sub normal 08-09, NYC/CNJ we were just near average snowfall. 22.9". 0.5" above the current normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2012 Author Share Posted November 17, 2012 Was that year good in PHL? I thought they weresub normal 08-09, NYC/CNJ we were just near average snowfall. phl intl was normal to slightly above. they had that rogue band set up on them with that inverted trof feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I was thinking the BIG year. 09'-10'. That's my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 phl intl was normal to slightly above. they had that rogue band set up on them with that inverted trof feature. I went to bed at 12 with nothing.. Woke up at 6, with 8". So pissed I missed it ongoing. Rob Gaurino did well forecasting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I went to bed at 12 with nothing.. Woke up at 6, with 8". So pissed I missed it ongoing. Rob Gaurino did well forecasting that. My parents got ripped off in that storm (when don't they? )... ended up in the subsidence zone between the two heavy bands, so they only had 5" compared to the near 10" west and 10+ east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 To go along with Isotherm's post above, here are my thoughts on how the winter is likely to unfold. Based on how the fall is unfolding and all other factors such as ENSO, PDO, blocking tendencies, etc, I believe the top overall analogs for the winter are now: 1951-52, 1963-64, 1966-67, 1968-69, and 2003-04. Secondary analogs are 1958-59, 1990-91, 1995-96, and 2006-07. Rolling these forward into composites for the winter, some pretty decent signals emerge. In December, it looks like a somewhat similar pattern in the Pacific to what we are seeing now, except a bit lower heights for much of the West. Probably a seasonably wet pattern for the PNW for much of the month, and likely wetter than normal further south into CA. There is also a signal for a west-based -NAO, which would make cold temperatures likely at times for the eastern half of the nation, with a good chance for storminess in the OH Valley up into New England. Overall, perhaps the stormiest month of the winter for the East. Probably a colder than normal month for the nation as a whole, though not excessively so, unless stronger blocking wins out. Moving on to January, the analogs indicate a strong signal for continued blocking in the NE Pacific up into Alaska, and also a signal for a east-based -NAO. This also looks like the month this winter most likely to feature a SE ridge, though probably not a crazy strong one typical of Ninas. This month looks cold for the West into the northern Plains, and warm for the southern Plains and at least the southern half of the Eastern seaboard. Finally we have February, and the signals change substantially towards a different pattern. There is a good chance that blocking over Alaska will be replaced by lower heights, and ridging will probably nudge into the West Coast at times, resulting in drier than normal weather there. The month could start off cold and stormy for the Mountain West but likely transitioning to warmer and drier weather later in February. The east-based -NAO signal from January continues strong into February, resulting in a very good chance of below normal temperatures for the eastern 1/3 of the nation, though probably not as much precipitation as December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Great post taco. Neutral ENSO years can be pretty divergent depending upon the amount of high latitude blocking. However, it seems at least over recent weeks, that signalling is becoming stronger for the likelihood of, at minimum, some blocking for the ensuing winter. An Aleutian ridge/AK block connection w/ a -NAO is a fairly chilly resultant pattern for much of the CONUS, especially the northern tier. That EPO region is one of the most important keys, and as it stands now, will probably be polar opposite to last winter's raging +EPO regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I went to bed at 12 with nothing.. Woke up at 6, with 8". So pissed I missed it ongoing. Rob Gaurino did well forecasting that. That was one of the more enjoyable snowstorms to watch since it was so unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Great post taco. Neutral ENSO years can be pretty divergent depending upon the amount of high latitude blocking. However, it seems at least over recent weeks, that signalling is becoming stronger for the likelihood of, at minimum, some blocking for the ensuing winter. An Aleutian ridge/AK block connection w/ a -NAO is a fairly chilly resultant pattern for much of the CONUS, especially the northern tier. That EPO region is one of the most important keys, and as it stands now, will probably be polar opposite to last winter's raging +EPO regime. Thanks. There does seem to be a fairly good correlation between the blocking patterns established in fall and the patterns the following winters, especially in weak ENSO years. As you said, the EPO region will be of the utmost importance this winter, and falls that saw a lot of blocking in the Aleutians/Bering Sea/Alaska have tended to see good blocking there as well in the winters following...especially in Dec/Jan. And it works the opposite way often as well. You referenced 2011, which definitely saw a far different fall pattern. Here are other years that featured big-time +EPO falls and what followed. Not surprisingly, many of the warmest winters nationally on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 That was one of the more enjoyable snowstorms to watch since it was so unexpected.i will never forget that was my first year at millersville university out in lancaster. Watched my home get clocked by that band in Villanova got 9" total while I had about 9 flakes at school. Meanwhile, about 3 miles down the road, the city of lancaster had about 12". Unreal meso banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I remember that storm. I was at Rowan in Glassboro and the snow just never seemed to stop. It was a surprise cancellation of class the next day so I was happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I went to bed at 12 with nothing.. Woke up at 6, with 8". So pissed I missed it ongoing. Rob Gaurino did well forecasting that. Sounds like you are thinking of the early March one. A few other people are talking about the early February one. Weird winter, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 That early March storm, 2009, broke us out of a long snow drought. As a teacher here in the Cape May area, we had not had a snow day until March 2009 since PDII 2003! Needless to say, we've had plenty of them since. Also some hurricane days thrown in there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 DT's final winter forecast is out: http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/seasonalforcst/WINTER1213/update.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I went to bed at 12 with nothing.. Woke up at 6, with 8". So pissed I missed it ongoing. Rob Gaurino The NAM did well forecasting that. NAM did really well on nowcasting that rogue band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 NAM did really well on nowcasting that rogue band. lol.. regardless.... he put it out there, not too many other local tv* mets (we'll say he did well amongst local tv mets). anyhow, euro ensembles are looking pretty good post turkey day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 Maybe its just me, but im not really enthused with the pattern down the road. If i lived in the interior, lakes, or further north latitude i would be. The pattern screams gradient and potential cutters. Its all going to come down to how strong the -nao gets, the stronger the better for us, with the lack of cooperation from the pacific. The -epo is nice, should definitely get cold air into the states. The issue is the pna, with a lack of ridge out west their is always going to be the issue any storm coming into the plains cutting north. If the nao is strong enough it cuts north and redevelops off the coast somewhere. I should say this though, this pattern is a heck of a lot better than last year. At least we may have shots at wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 MJO suggests the possibility of a +PNA in early December. The Euro weeklies showed a weak +PNA in week 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 MJO suggests the possibility of a +PNA in early December. The Euro weeklies showed a weak +PNA in week 3 hopefully thats correct. Im just saying what i have seen from teleconnectors and modelling the next 2 weeks. For snow at the coast it would have to be a well timed system or a weak system that doesn't cut and goes more west to east, but the pattern argues for more meridonal flow of systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 How's the STJ looking? Haven't really heard too much on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 hopefully thats correct. Im just saying what i have seen from teleconnectors and modelling the next 2 weeks. For snow at the coast it would have to be a well timed system or a weak system that doesn't cut and goes more west to east, but the pattern argues for more meridonal flow of systems. The ECMWF is showing the MJO propagating into octants 1/2, whereas the GFS and GEFS are starting to bring it into Octants 1/2 at the end of their runs, which would favor a + PNA. Take this FWIW, since MJO forecasts are not the best with these models. ECMWF MJO forecast: Phase 1 for DJF: Phase 2 for DJF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I think any +PNA bursts are likely to be short lived given the moderately negative -PDO, which is strongly correlated to DJF negative PNA patterns. With that being said, all it takes is a transient burst of +PNA to produce a meaningful snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 lol.. regardless.... he put it out there, not too many other local tv* mets (we'll say he did well amongst local tv mets). BTW, I'm not disrespecting him for pushing the NAM in that storm...he should have and was right to do so...it was a smart and correct call. The best part of that storm was Guarino trying to parlay it into a comeback to Philly because he nailed a nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 How's the STJ looking? Haven't really heard too much on it It's actually been quite active for the last three weeks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 thanks Adam. just really hadnt had the time to make the 15 sec effort! there she is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 well let's hope for some winter weather after turkey around here since the torch talk has started Let me also say this: after a possibly snowy period through mid-December in New England, we may have to sound the torch alert from late December into early January. Already starting to raise the alarms here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 well let's hope for some winter weather after turkey around here since the torch talk has started Yup. With no clear ENSO signal, I suspect we're going to be waffling back and forth between regimes a lot this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I suspect we're going to be waffling back and forth between regimes a lot this winter. I'd be OK with tennis weather followed by sledding weather followed by more tennis weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I don't think the upcoming weather around thanksgiving qualifies as a torch for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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