famartin Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I'd be a great sales person if I went into the NE forum and told them to check out the great disco going on in here! (We have some good disco, just not a lot). New England is definitely the land of weather weenies, and it shows more than just in the conversation on the NE forum. Just for fun, I counted the CWOP stations in Massachusetts... 156. New Jersey only has 114. Considering also the population difference, and the ratio of CWOP stations to residents is about double in Massachusetts as compared to New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2012 Author Share Posted November 16, 2012 I'd be a great sales person if I went into the NE forum and told them to check out the great disco going on in here! (We have some good disco, just not a lot). Keeping things on topic, starting to get a robust signal for the -NAO we've been banking (wishing) for showing up the GEFS. It's a while out, but slowly been showing up more on more on the long range. the -nao looks nice, but thats not a big coastal storm pattern. The goa low is a killer right there no ridging over the west which you need. Its pretty much a zonal flow, but probably some cold to boot. That pattern looks more like west to east bowling balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 the -nao looks nice, but thats not a big coastal storm pattern. The goa low is a killer right there no ridging over the west which you need. Its pretty much a zonal flow, but probably some cold to boot. That pattern looks more like west to east bowling balls. ehh, i was more or less pointing out the signal for a developing -NAO. We'll see how the Pacific looks once/if we get the NAO set up. edit* still not liking how the GOA low sits. perhaps if we can get it to retrograde west a bit we'd be in better shape. But, as we've seen the last few winters, a good -NAO can offset a less than stellar pacific. Speaking of which, Brett Anderson of Accuwx had this to say about the weeklies. Should make Adam very happy. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/signs-of-a-cold-start-to-december-in-the-east/1619732 "The new weekly ECMWF model just came in and it shows very cold air over the western half of Canada shifting south and east and expanding into eastern Canada (not Atlantic Canada) and the eastern U.S. by the second week of December as the North Atlantic Oscillation shifts back into a negative phase. A second indicator, the MJO, also suggests a cold pattern into eastern North America starting around the 5th." Good article to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Yeah. I kinda posted my thoughts up in NE yesterday, because they were already on the topic. MJO + Strat + AAM all indicate the first week to ten days of December will feature increased risks for snow and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 ^^ Good news for the local skiers. Maybe a nice early start here. Its been a few years since things got rockin early for us skiers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 ^^ Good news for the local skiers. Maybe a nice early start here. Its been a few years since things got rockin early for us skiers. Heading to Bretton Woods, NH on Sunday for a week - they are opening today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Heading to Bretton Woods, NH on Sunday for a week - they are opening today. Cool! 12z gfz looks like fun after turkey also keeping a low close by mid next week? Got my happy fix in NE forum today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Although the teleconnections are arguing for a cold spell in the east for early December, the EPO and PNA are against any storms here. We'll see. MJO doesn't look too hot hot either on the GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Euro weeklies have -EPO/+PNA/-NAO for Week 3. Those GEFS MJO forecasts are pretty much garbage, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Euro weeklies have -EPO/+PNA/-NAO for Week 3. Those GEFS MJO forecasts are pretty much garbage, fwiw. Can't afford the Euro weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Can't afford the Euro weeklies. Oh no, I was just pointing out that the EPO and PNA are forecasted to come around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2012 Author Share Posted November 16, 2012 Although the teleconnections are arguing for a cold spell in the east for early December, the EPO and PNA are against any storms here. We'll see. MJO doesn't look too hot hot either on the GFS ensembles. use the euro's mjo forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 use the euro's mjo forecasts. There not on the CPC site correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ago4snow Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Euro weeklies have -EPO/+PNA/-NAO for Week 3. Those GEFS MJO forecasts are pretty much garbage, fwiw. It sort of looks like we’re not going to have any real potential until at least mid-December. For some reason, I never really think about winter getting serious(other than cold) in this area until after Christmas. When we do get a major snowstorm in December, it subjectively feels like that is a great indicator for the rest of the winter. I’m thinking of 1960-61 (showing my age), 2009-10 and 2010-11. We had a great storm on Christmas Eve in 1966, but I can’t remember how the winter turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2012 Author Share Posted November 16, 2012 There not on the CPC site correct? they are... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 they are... http://www.cpc.ncep....clivar_wh.shtml Thanks for the tip guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 My thoughts into December. *Mild through Black Friday -- could hit 60 on a day or two for a high -- Turkey Day and Black Friday might be the most likely candidates. *Cool shot next Saturday through Monday. 40's for highs (yawn). *Transition storm timing 28-29th -- rainy. *Cold into December. Maybe a clipper on 3rd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 It sort of looks like we’re not going to have any real potential until at least mid-December. Strongly disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 My thoughts into December. *Mild through Black Friday -- could hit 60 on a day or two for a high -- Turkey Day and Black Friday might be the most likely candidates. *Cool shot next Saturday through Monday. 40's for highs (yawn). *Transition storm timing 28-29th -- rainy. *Cold into December. Maybe a clipper on 3rd? The pattern after the transition is going to be conducive to meridional moving storms, not clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Strongly disagree really like this season's adam compared to last season's blow torch adam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 really like this season's adam compared to last season's blow torch adam I don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I don't Give it time, you'll learn To actually enjoy it :-) !!!! By the way, the 6z GFS compared to its GEFS is night and day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Give it time, you'll learn To actually enjoy it :-) !!!! By the way, the 6z GFS compared to its GEFS is night and day. Yep, think 12z will also be night and day as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2012 Author Share Posted November 17, 2012 Strongly disagree Im not sure what constitutes as a strong signal on mtn torque, but the rocky mtn torque is the highest its been atleast since september. So it adds some credibility to maybe -nao forming in a week and a half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 12z euro is cold long range. Here's the thing. Can't take the models verbatim. Gotta look at whys going on with such things as the Ao, MJO, mountain torque, Strat etc... Simply put, we're nowhere near last years pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 12z euro is cold long range. It doesn't last long... Cold front moves through Friday night, next weekend is cold but by Monday its warming back up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 17, 2012 Author Share Posted November 17, 2012 It doesn't last long... Cold front moves through Friday night, next weekend is cold but by Monday its warming back up again. Yea thats the transition period, the cold front in the central plains would be the patten changer. Nice -nao days 9-10, and -epo, with a neutral to slightly pos pna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 GEFS says "hello beautiful December" Keeps the NAO all the way through. Lets hope we can keep this going and get it to come to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Here's a composite of H5 patterns for years in the last -PDO decadal phase(and the new one) that featured a -PNA, -AO, and -NAO overall for DJF. The resultant years that fit were: 1958-59, 1961-62, 1967-68, and 2008-09, all neutral ENSO winter seasons as well. Those four winters were quite cold, but again, going along with the dry theme, rather hit and miss on the snowfall events. Not saying that'll happen this year. However, the pattern depicted on D 10+ guidance looks fairly similar to these 4 years regarding the Aleutian ridge/-EPO connection across the top to west based -NAO. Underneath you've got a belt of below normal heights from the PAC NW east to the NE US. These are the type of patterns that can yield bitter cold from coast to coast given the -PNA/-NAO and AK ridging. However, without the Western US ridging, you also tend to lack bigger snowfalls on the east coast. Food for thought. DJF H5 composite of years w/ -PNA/-AO/-NAO/-EPO: Breaking them down by year. 1958-59 1961-62 1967-68 2008-09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 ^ 08-09 .. Don't tease me bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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