am19psu Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 AT this time, I know the outlook from a majority of the people in the wx community were thinking thanksgiving for a pattern change. However, i think more or less, the models are going away from that, and making it more of a rogue storm threat. If we are to see a shift in the current pattern, I'm thinking its more towards the beginning of DEC timeframe. The good news is the NH and NA snowpack are looking great, due to the current pattern. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 The pattern we're in right now till rhe end of the month is not that bad,but not cold enough for snow. We may actually end up below normal for the month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 this is from ralieghwx Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 12z ECMWF Ensembles show a very strong west-based -NAO block late in 11-15 day period. Cold pattern looking likely early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Not it matters much but the last time many in the area saw accumulating snow in November before last week was way back in 1995. We all know what happened that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Not it matters much but the last time many in the area saw accumulating snow in November before last week was way back in 1995. We all know what happened that winter. Of course, the last time before that was 1989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Nov 1938 had 12" in New Brunswick, similar to Monmouth's totals this month. The winter produced 32.5" of snow for New brunswick, which isn't bad, and certainly a helluva lot better than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Of course, the last time before that was 1989 I'll take a 50 50 chance on 90 or 96 any winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 I'll take a 50 50 chance on 90 or 96 any winter. 1987 ... 33.3% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Well, both the euro went with th GFS idea of an off shore coastal. Could be a score 1 for the GFS. It's feasible, especially with the " look" out west of the GOA low blasting the PAC jet into the coast. Progressive pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Well, both the euro went with th GFS idea of an off shore coastal. Could be a score 1 for the GFS. It's feasible, especially with the " look" out west of the GOA low blasting the PAC jet into the coast. Progressive pattern. I know I've been Mr. Negativity with this system, but it never had a chance. Too much warm air, terrible H5 pattern. We'll be lucky if we see more than a few rain showers. Now, the first week of December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 I know I've been Mr. Negativity with this system, but it never had a chance. Too much warm air, terrible H5 pattern. We'll be lucky if we see more than a few rain showers. Now, the first week of December... For the first time in awhile the ensembles are in farily good agreement of a negative NAO developing during the beginning of December. Btw, really enjoyed your radio show before Sandy, how do you get to call in and participate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Btw, really enjoyed your radio show before Sandy, how do you get to call in and participate? I'm not sure what the number is, but Randy screens the calls and puts them on the air. I think it is on the website? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 I'm not sure what the number is, but Randy screens the calls and puts them on the air. I think it is on the website? Darn I must have missed it, anyway it was nice to put a voice to the profile lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 I know I've been Mr. Negativity with this system, but it never had a chance. Too much warm air, terrible H5 pattern. We'll be lucky if we see more than a few rain showers. Now, the first week of December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Joe Bastardi Storm important synoptically as it supplies base for trough to form to end November with major easter trough likely to open Dec! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Wait, wasn't he just saying on Monday that there would be a Thanksgiving snow storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Bastardi on Twitter just tweeted something about a possible nor easter for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame next week. Yup, he suuuuuuure did. Credibility, that guy has lots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Wait, wasn't he just saying on Monday that there would be a Thanksgiving snow storm? Anything that makes him a buck, he is like a hooker in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Yup, he suuuuuuure did. Credibility, that guy has lots. I think he thinks that he got his mojo back by hugging the euro on Sandy, and it not blowing up in his face. Now he can muck up the internet with every phantom threat that comes down the pike this season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 15, 2012 Author Share Posted November 15, 2012 Way out in time here and take with a grain of salt, but this is the gfs hr 384 h5 hgts. This has a very nice look to it. Ridging in greenland starting to pop. The riding by alaska is a little far west, but move that a little east and thats a nice -epo look it. Nice cross polar flow also. Thats how you get come serious cold over on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I think he thinks that he got his mojo back by hugging the euro on Sandy, and it not blowing up in his face. Now he can muck up the internet with every phantom threat that comes down the pike this season... So, you're saying it's not any different than any other day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 still looks chilly week after turkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 By the way, if you're looking for great disco on the board, head up to the NE winter thread. Some absolutely great conversation going on about the upcoming winter. So,e good, some bad. Check out the last couple pages of it at least. Well worth the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 still looks chilly week after turkey 12z GFS shows that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 By the way, if you're looking for great disco on the board, head up to the NE winter thread. Some absolutely great conversation going on about the upcoming winter. So,e good, some bad. Check out the last couple pages of it at least. Well worth the time. Are you getting a cut or something everytime someone clicks on that thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Are you getting a cut or something everytime someone clicks on that thread? He should look into a career in sales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Yup, he suuuuuuure did. Credibility, that guy has lots. LOL! Don't shoot the messenger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 15, 2012 Author Share Posted November 15, 2012 12z euro is getting ready to dump some serious cold into central and south central canada. Though im not sure how much further south it gets. I just don't see the meridonal flow to bring it right down the pipeline. The nao is still pos, pna is negative, neutral epo. My guess would be a glancing blow for the northern plains into northern great lake and northern new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 ^baby steps, hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Are you getting a cut or something everytime someone clicks on that thread? I'd be a great sales person if I went into the NE forum and told them to check out the great disco going on in here! (We have some good disco, just not a lot). Keeping things on topic, starting to get a robust signal for the -NAO we've been banking (wishing) for showing up the GEFS. It's a while out, but slowly been showing up more on more on the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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