Sunny and Warm Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 So is the area still on track for a warmup next weekend thru the holiday?? Looks delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 So is the area still on track for a warmup next weekend thru the holiday?? Looks delayed. It's not going to be uninterrupted and there isn't going to be a death ridge, but we're going to average out +3-5 through the rest of the month. I've just been trolling about the "torch" stuff. After Mon/Tues, I don't think we'll flirt with 70 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 After Mon/Tues, I don't think we'll flirt with 70 again. till May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 till May? Till December, then again in Jan, Feb, and pushing 80 by March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 The CPC shows normal temps in the 6-10 and 8-14 day analogs. Maybe during this period, we'll experience both a mild warmup and a minor cool-down to balance things out and warm up again after Thanksgiving. Or maybe analogs can only be trusted just so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 All I know is that it looks FUGLY for any type of sustained cold or snow in the long range this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 All I know is that it looks FUGLY for any type of sustained cold or snow in the long range this month. I would'nt expect that this early, our average highs are still well up in the 50's and even by the end of the month it is still around 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 This is the coldest start to November in Philly since 1976. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 9, 2012 Author Share Posted November 9, 2012 This is the coldest start to November in Philly since 1976. and watch it finish in the top 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 This is the coldest start to November in Philly since 1976. Kinda coincides to the NH October* snowfall cover relationship? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 and watch it finish in the top 10 Warmest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Increasing signal for another coastal storm in 7-10 days could be the year of the noreaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 10, 2012 Author Share Posted November 10, 2012 Warmest? lol yea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 mike you know you are chomping at the bit to fire up your snow blower I was almost tempted to bring it out onto the driveway Wednesday night, just to introduce it to the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Theres some interesting trends today Im noticing for the 9-11 day period. Both the GFS & Euro ensembles showing a strong HP in SE Canada with a small trough across the east. I guess some pro mets can chime in. Im not sure if this type of pettern could produce snow across our region, but even the OP GFS at day 9-10 is showing CAD. Could be interesting for interior sections & especially interior NE. It looks like one of those odd patterns where the AO is so positive it forced high pressure around SE canada. The cold would probably be in the stale variety but if we can get a shortwave to dig it might be able to keep areas cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Theres some interesting trends today Im noticing for the 9-11 day period. Both the GFS & Euro ensembles showing a strong HP in SE Canada with a small trough across the east. I guess some pro mets can chime in. Im not sure if this type of pettern could produce snow across our region, but even the OP GFS at day 9-10 is showing CAD. Could be interesting for interior sections & especially interior NE. It looks like one of those odd patterns where the AO is so positive it forced high pressure around SE canada. The cold would probably be in the stale variety but if we can get a shortwave to dig it might be able to keep areas cold enough. I'll be home, so you can basically write off any chance of snow until at least the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 All I know is that it looks FUGLY for any type of sustained cold or snow in the long range this month. It's November. Any snow you get this month is typically "bonus" given the average high is north of 50 for the whole month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 It's November. Any snow you get this month is typically "bonus" given the average high is north of 50 for the whole month. Monster storm, on the GFS for Wed/Thurs next week (Thanksgiving). Haven't looked at the map, but there's 5 inches of cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Monster storm, on the GFS for Wed/Thurs next week (Thanksgiving). Haven't looked at the map, but there's 5 inches of cold rain. Yep...and it's rain for Philly. Euro shows a spin up off of the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 US National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mount Holly Here is another look at how this upcoming winter "might" transpire with respect to snow. There was a published paper by Judah Cohen about the relationship of the October Siberian snow coverage and the arctic oscillation/north atlantic oscillation for the upcoming winter. In summary, when the snow coverage in October is above average (as it was this year) in Siberia, the tendency is for colder winters. Another tendency we see locally is for the ensuing winter to also be snowier. Since satellite data has become available in 1967 to measure snow coverage, in 44 years of record, we have found that when Eurasian (we could not isolate Siberia) was above the median half of the ensuing winters were snowier than our current average of 22.4". When it was below average coverage, that percentage of snowier than average winters was only about 18 percent. Seasonal snowfall is not a normal statistical distribution, but a gamma statistical distribution. The snowy winters (like 1995-6, 2009-10) raise the overall average, but the most likely outcome for any given winter is for slightly below average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Yep...and it's rain for Philly. Euro shows a spin up off of the Carolinas. how far is the cold air or is there any at all around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Bastardi on Twitter just tweeted something about a possible nor easter for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame next week. Oh hi! BTW. A friend of mine turned me on to this forum, and I have enjoyed reading it. You all did a great job with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Bastardi on Twitter just tweeted something about a possible nor easter for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame next week. Of course he did. The pattern is there for some overrunning stuff. The models (especially the GFS based ones) are showing some warm conveyor wraparound stuff with a low advancing up the coast right now, but I don't buy it at this time. The H5 pattern that Highzenburg posted above is not conducive for a coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 Of course he did. The pattern is there for some overrunning stuff. The models (especially the GFS based ones) are showing some warm conveyor wraparound stuff with a low advancing up the coast right now, but I don't buy it at this time. The H5 pattern that Highzenburg posted above is not conducive for a coastal storm. that pattern either screams cutter to me, with the trof on the west coast coming in and the building hgts in the central plains. The high would scoot right out to sea with the limited blocking...or if its a weaker wave, it would just traverse the southern teir and go right ots off the carolinas with the sprawling high in se canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 To me, the pattern til the thanksgiving weekend just looks normal temp wise to me. All the indices for blocking, ao,nao,pna, hover around nuetral. The mjo is in the COD, so the forcing isn't that great to change anything. Looks very zonal flow, with some warm ups and some cool downs. The last week of november first week of dec is where things may change. The nao,ao, epo are all "projected" to go negative. The mjo, as of now looks like its forecasted to emerge in phases 8-2, which is a colder pattern in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 ^^ Dec.5th setting up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 how far is the cold air or is there any at all around? On the Euro, the 850's are around +4 locally. GFS is a bit cooler (850 0 line hangs around nearby but thicknesses are kinda high) but the result is (as of 0z) rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 that pattern either screams cutter to me, with the trof on the west coast coming in and the building hgts in the central plains. The high would scoot right out to sea with the limited blocking...or if its a weaker wave, it would just traverse the southern teir and go right ots off the carolinas with the sprawling high in se canada. I think the latter is a reasonable solution ("scooter" out to sea) unless the high is overdone...then I could see a weak wave trying to sneak north a bit. I put "scooter" in quotes as I don't think the storm (if one develops) moves quickly. the 500 high kinda traps it in the western atlantic since there's no kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 here we go Joe Bastardi developing negative ao/nao longer term means reload of cold for possible December to remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 not digging this set up at all: with the GOA low, which i would assume is a downstream effect of the Aleutian Ridging, its keeping the pac jet blasting into our area: which is duly noted in the PNA chart from the CPC Without any ridging towards Greenland, the flow never really buckles over the conus. Sure, we have a cutoff low modeled in the medium range, but thats due the ridging over Central, Western Canada. Whether or not this is a sign of things to come i'm not sure. The MJO isnt going to be any help whatsoever. This makes me think that Aleutian Ridge has some staying power, as well as the GOA low. And as long as the NAO and AO are positive-neutral, expect a zonal flow across the Eastern CONUS. Looking ahead, There is still some hope. The GFS ensembles try to start to develop a cross polar flow with the Aleutian Ridge heading north into the Arctic, as well as some type (east or west) based -NAO building. Tough to say if it's a pseudo N.ATL ridge, or a true Greenland block. (300hr on the GEFS) AT this time, I know the outlook from a majority of the people in the wx community were thinking thanksgiving for a pattern change. However, i think more or less, the models are going away from that, and making it more of a rogue storm threat. If we are to see a shift in the current pattern, I'm thinking its more towards the beginning of DEC timeframe. The good news is the NH and NA snowpack are looking great, due to the current pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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