dssbss Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Is it looking like snow for Berks/Lehigh. I know we are often on the border between the changeover. If it is snow...I'm imagining heavy wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 12Z GFS shaping up to be a bad time for the Jersey Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Saving grace with the 12Z GFS solution is that the stall occurs over LI/SNE instead of further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 After this storm, early winter and prolonged cold is pretty much done till thanksgiving or after. Mtn torque does indicate meridonal flow, but with the mjo trying to break out of COD into phases 4-6 that favors western US cold with a moderating airmass moving eastward. Also, with the emergence of the +nao,+ao, -pna and neutral epo, favors a normal to warm eastern US. Later on towards or after thanksgiving we wil have to watch and see where the mjo decides to go once out of COD, does it go into phase 7 and work its way around which would teleconnect to colder eastern us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Torch city Nov 15-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 Torch city Nov 15-30 mjo phases 4-6 ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 After this storm, early winter and prolonged cold is pretty much done till thanksgiving or after. Mtn torque does indicate meridonal flow, but with the mjo trying to break out of COD into phases 4-6 that favors western US cold with a moderating airmass moving eastward. Also, with the emergence of the +nao,+ao, -pna and neutral epo, favors a normal to warm eastern US. Later on towards or after thanksgiving we wil have to watch and see where the mjo decides to go once out of COD, does it go into phase 7 and work its way around which would teleconnect to colder eastern us. Almost seems like a repeat of last year except a week later. Will that mean another atrocious winter like last season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 6, 2012 Author Share Posted November 6, 2012 Almost seems like a repeat of last year except a week later. Will that mean another atrocious winter like last season? philly speaking, when they get an early season snow, the rest of the winter is shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 philly speaking, when they get an early season snow, the rest of the winter is shot The way the climate is these days we cannot assume that anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 This current pattern is also the complete opposite of what we had this time last year heading into the winter months. Honestly, I think this will be an early start to a cold, stormy, and snowy winter. philly speaking, when they get an early season snow, the rest of the winter is shot The way the climate is these days we cannot assume that anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 torch then a zone flow for a while as tom depicted. rather have this now then hopefully december will flip for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The way the climate is these days we cannot assume that anymore. Just stop with these posts. You're like the rainstorm of the Philly forum. You're not going to make it through winter unless you start adding some value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Just stop with these posts. You're like the rainstorm of the Philly forum. You're not going to make it through winter unless you start adding some value. My point is that we have other things going for us like snowcover which is more important than if we get an early snowfall. We did in 2008 and 2008-2009 winter was ok and in november 1995 and we all know how 1995-96 turned out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 My point is that we have other things going for us like snowcover which is more important than if we get an early snowfall. We did in 2008 and 2008-2009 winter was ok and in november 1995 and we all know how 1995-96 turned out! I doubt that was your original intent. This was a good post, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Just going over some of the longer range guidance, seems like we torch for a bit (golf weather!) and then go seasonable. Not seeing any one dominant pattern till thanksgiving or so. No complaints from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Just going over some of the longer range guidance, seems like we torch for a bit (golf weather!) and then go seasonable. Not seeing any one dominant pattern till thanksgiving or so. No complaints from me. Looks "troughy" around Thanksgiving. Something to keep an eye on while we get to enjoy some more outdoor weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Looks "troughy" around Thanksgiving. Something to keep an eye on while we get to enjoy some more outdoor weather... OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 OTS Heat miser is at it again..busted this time ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Heat miser is at it again..busted this time ;-) LOL. It's the Euro monthlies. HUGE grain of salt. I actually told people in our weather briefing today that the next snow storm will be first week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Heat miser is at it again..busted this time ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I actually told people in our weather briefing today that the next snow storm will be first week of December. I now have this marked down on my calendar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 LOL. It's the Euro monthlies. HUGE grain of salt. I actually told people in our weather briefing today that the next snow storm will be first week of December. Dec 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Dec 5? realm of possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 I'm such a weather nut. I always get this "post-storm depression" symptom. Yesterday felt like a late March early April storm so usually I'd feel even worse since it was the last potential storm. This time it's early Nov & I got a full winter only a month away! I'm happy we get a little break right now because I got stuff I need to do lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 8, 2012 Author Share Posted November 8, 2012 realm of possibility when i read this page and saw your quote on the next winter storm shot was first week of dec i got excited. Then i went back to previous page and saw the comments you made out of region and it gave me the diarrhea feeling in my stomach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 when i read this page and saw your quote on the next winter storm shot was first week of dec i got excited. Then i went back to previous page and saw the comments you made out of region and it gave me the diarrhea feeling in my stomach Ummm, okay... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 8, 2012 Author Share Posted November 8, 2012 mike you know you are chomping at the bit to fire up your snow blower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Dec 5? That would be perfect for the next snow event. And I'll take some normal to above normal temps on the weekends until then, while doing yard cleanup work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Here is a question it has been nearly 2 years since KPHL has had a below average month. Despite the warm up coming after that we go right back to average or near it per the models. Given the first 8 days of this month have been below average could we temporary break that cycle this month and end up at best case 1-1.5 degrees below average this month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Here is a question it has been nearly 2 years since KPHL has had a below average month. Despite the warm up coming after that we go right back to average or near it per the models. Given the first 8 days of this month have been below average could we temporary break that cycle this month and end up at best case 1-1.5 degrees below average this month? 14 months. Not quite nearly two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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