kpantz Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 The Nogaps was pretty much in tandem with the Euro on Sandy, is it back to normal? I see the "gap" between the Euro (and UKMET) and the NOAM models has not narrowed today. Its almost a geographical Sandy repeat with respect to the distance differences. Total model anthropomorphism here, but I'm figuring that since this is a pure mid-latitude setup, the NOGAPS is going to take its normal seat near the back of the classroom. What concerns me is that what it's progging is what it usually does with coastal storms in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I've only seen belmar and asbury park beaches, but they both sit about 4 feet lower now than what they were..any sign of dunes/protection is gone. belmar looks like it wouldn't take much to get water back into the damage areas since all the slope of the beach is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I'm pretty sure there wouldn't be any freshwater flooding there (though some of the better hydro guys can feel free to correct me). This isn't all that deep (~995mb), so I doubt there would be much of a surge, either, though obviously any surge is bad right now. The Euro solution timing of strongest winds close to the higher of the two astronomical tides of the day would be problematical. "As is" it would bring advisory level winds to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I'm pretty sure there wouldn't be any freshwater flooding there (though some of the better hydro guys can feel free to correct me). This isn't all that deep (~995mb), so I doubt there would be much of a surge, either, though obviously any surge is bad right now. Yeah, you're probably talking a couple feet at the worst, but I'm not the expert. Still, with defenses lowered, the impact might be greater than it otherwise would. I think the biggest issue we'll have to combat is the hysteria/hype. I think Tony mentioned this seems like a pretty garden-variety nor'easter, and it'll be a challenge to focus people on that fact so soon after Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Total model anthropomorphism here, but I'm figuring that since this is a pure mid-latitude setup, the NOGAPS is going to take its normal seat near the back of the classroom. What concerns me is that what it's progging is what it usually does with coastal storms in the medium range. Yeah and the GFS ensembles are not too much help today in offering different camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Yeah and the GFS ensembles are not too much help today in offering different camps. Yeah - I just peeked and thought I was hallucinating. What's up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Per helicopter videos, Jersey beaches are not in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Still have issues with the internet, therefore my office cannot post the briefing package to our homepage. A briefing package regarding next weeks nor'easter has been issued and is located at this link, http://dema.delaware.gov/documents/NWS_Weather_Briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Still have issues with the internet, therefore my office cannot post the briefing package to our homepage. A briefing package regarding next weeks nor'easter has been issued and is located at this link, http://dema.delaware.gov/documents/NWS_Weather_Briefing.pdf Thank you for posting. I have been forwarding these along to local Emergency Management folks in the southern/western limits of the Upton forecast area to supplement the information they are receiving directly from that office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Still have issues with the internet, therefore my office cannot post the briefing package to our homepage. A briefing package regarding next weeks nor'easter has been issued and is located at this link, http://dema.delaware.gov/documents/NWS_Weather_Briefing.pdf Nice. Anyone following the previous briefings should notice the difference in tone and pay attention but not panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Yeah - I just peeked and thought I was hallucinating. What's up there? I don't know and the 18z GFS has discovered the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I don't know and the 18z GFS has discovered the low. In a big way. On my phone, but that almost looks like a bigger inland flood threat to areas south and west of the CWA... Areas already hit with lots of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 00Z UKMET holds serve with a coastal sub 990mb system. 00Z GFS was in the neighborhood, but a little offshore. Might be getting near the time to create a thread, if only to jinx this thing out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 EC has sub-988 off the Delmarva. Too warm for anything but rain except far NW (Pocs and NW NJ) but definitely a coastal flood threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I think Tony mentioned this seems like a pretty garden-variety nor'easter, and it'll be a challenge to focus people on that fact so soon after Sandy. I think this is the first time I've ever seen that term used, but in light of Sandy's strength, I suppose it would seem that way. Anyway, one has to wonder how much impact even a garden variety nor'easter would have on those communities who've lost their protection (dunes, sloped beaches, sea walls, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEREALTOR1 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I think this is the first time I've ever seen that term used, but in light of Sandy's strength, I suppose it would seem that way. Anyway, one has to wonder how much impact even a garden variety nor'easter would have on those communities who've lost their protection (dunes, sloped beaches, sea walls, etc). I would imagine it would be somewhat like simply pouring a glass of water across your kitchen countertop. Not good for those folks for sure. Also, I was thinking about a video I saw on Fox 29 or one of those morning shows where the reporter was talking about how in some of the areas the clean up crews had just bulldozed the sand to either side of the roads (kind of similar to what you would do with snow, except as the reporter pointed out, "sand don't melt"). Can't imagine what would happen once water gets into these, now man-made channels, and where it goes from there is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I think this is the first time I've ever seen that term used, but in light of Sandy's strength, I suppose it would seem that way. Anyway, one has to wonder how much impact even a garden variety nor'easter would have on those communities who've lost their protection (dunes, sloped beaches, sea walls, etc). If the present Euro solution comes to fruition, it will cause set backs. The Euro has trended deeper and slower since I planted the garden. Even under normal circumstances the present solution could cause moderate tidal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 If the present Euro solution comes to fruition, it will cause set backs. The Euro has trended deeper and slower since I planted the garden. Even under normal circumstances the present solution could cause moderate tidal flooding. The last two Euro runs certainly aim to make the "garden variety" discussion moot. Slow moving and sub 990 is a heck of a vegetable. The ensembles are east of the op, but not by too much. The 06Z GEFS mean is also east of the op. There's still hope for a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 00Z CMC and NOGAPS are similar in that it's wide right for our CWA but hooks back into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 00Z CMC and NOGAPS are similar in that it's wide right for our CWA but hooks back into New England. I hate to post this for the people at the coast, but with the way the models are forecasting a double teleconnection switch, I am doubtful of the wide right solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Is there a chance for snow in the interior of the region?? Say the I-81 corrdor?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Is there a chance for snow in the interior of the region?? Say the I-81 corrdor?? I'd say yes. May not be all snow, and the Euro looks warmish, but there's definitely a shot this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Still have issues with the internet, therefore my office cannot post the briefing package to our homepage. A briefing package regarding next weeks nor'easter has been issued and is located at this link, http://dema.delaware...er_Briefing.pdf Mike, thanks for posting. I don't know if these briefings are somehwat new to the NWS offices, but I like them a lot. Very succinct about the valuable takeaways. I hope this remains a feature for future events. I like the detailed discos, but most people would find them too challenging to read and understand at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 6z GFS store vista says PHL jackpot for 4-8"!!! Lol. any nor'easter would be bad for the coast. The low level wind field is pretty impressive on the GFS and euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Again thanks you very much Mt Holly Mets!!! I have gotten positive feedback from friends on FB from these updates...some of whom are still without power/internet and are using their phones as their primary info resource. Question for quantifying the potential impact of this weeks storm? Someone asked me if this Noreaster is comparable to an "aftershock" after a major earthquake in terms of impact of this storm as related to Sandy? A lot of hype/fear mixed with concern and a genuine desire to begin taking common sense preparedness action amongst people in these areas thanks again and thanks for future info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Question for quantifying the potential impact of this weeks storm? Someone asked me if this Noreaster is comparable to an "aftershock" after a major earthquake in terms of impact of this storm as related to Sandy? That's not a bad comparison... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Again thanks you very much Mt Holly Mets!!! I have gotten positive feedback from friends on FB from these updates...some of whom are still without power/internet and are using their phones as their primary info resource. Question for quantifying the potential impact of this weeks storm? Someone asked me if this Noreaster is comparable to an "aftershock" after a major earthquake in terms of impact of this storm as related to Sandy? A lot of hype/fear mixed with concern and a genuine desire to begin taking common sense preparedness action amongst people in these areas thanks again and thanks for future info. I agree with Ray. Its a very good analogy, an aftershock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 EC has sub-988 off the Delmarva. Too warm for anything but rain except far NW (Pocs and NW NJ) but definitely a coastal flood threat. the euro off wunderground snow maps shows snow from lns to abe points north and west. Not sure how accurate those maps are. But looking at my 2m temps on the euro its in the 30s from the del river west. 850s are just north and west of the city and slowly creep west and north through the storm. Thicknesses are 540-546 so sounds like their might be a warm layer in their. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Per JB this AM "I remember like yesterday the Nov 11-12 1968 storm that exploded north over ACY with hurricane winds and 2 feet of snow on its western side. While that is the extreme case, what is reasonable is to believe that a major noreaster is on the way and with coastal sites stripped bare of protection,a 2-4 foot push of water would be a major problem. In addition the lack of heat and electricity into areas where a howling gale, temps in the upper 30s to 40s and rain and then perhaps wet snow occurs, means that there is true danger to people caught in this without proper protection. It would be a major storm anyway, but one that most people would just say, "yah" we had a bad noreaster, but now it could be one that would pile on an already bad situation. In addition this willl deliver a snowstorm on its western side, and the snow may get all the way to the coast before its done" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Per JB this AM "I remember like yesterday the Nov 11-12 1968 storm that exploded north over ACY with hurricane winds and 2 feet of snow on its western side. While that is the extreme case, what is reasonable is to believe that a major noreaster is on the way and with coastal sites stripped bare of protection,a 2-4 foot push of water would be a major problem. In addition the lack of heat and electricity into areas where a howling gale, temps in the upper 30s to 40s and rain and then perhaps wet snow occurs, means that there is true danger to people caught in this without proper protection. It would be a major storm anyway, but one that most people would just say, "yah" we had a bad noreaster, but now it could be one that would pile on an already bad situation. In addition this willl deliver a snowstorm on its western side, and the snow may get all the way to the coast before its done" TTN had 0.5" of snow in that one. ABE had 6.4". West Chester had 1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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