Mitchell Gaines Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Long range thoughts. Agree with Tony and others on much of the above. 1. Seasonably cool first week of the month. It looks like a lack of phasing prevents any big storms. Though would be not be totally shocked to see one of these systems sneak across southern areas. 2. The MJO pulse leads to a seasonably warm week 2 for Jan. Could go back to a lakes cutter or two. 3. The stratospheric progression appears very favorable for weeks 3 and 4. This is where the fun will be in Jan. I suspect the GFS is about 5 days early with the pattern yet again. All of this is currenty showing in the latest ECMWF weekly forecast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Long range thoughts. Agree with Tony and others on much of the above. 1. Seasonably cool first week of the month. It looks like a lack of phasing prevents any big storms. Though would be not be totally shocked to see one of these systems sneak across southern areas. 2. The MJO pulse leads to a seasonably warm week 2 for Jan. Could go back to a lakes cutter or two. 3. The stratospheric progression appears very favorable for weeks 3 and 4. This is where the fun will be in Jan. I suspect the GFS is about 5 days early with the pattern yet again. All of this is currenty showing in the latest ECMWF weekly forecast as well. What do the Euro weeklies show for weeks 3 and 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 What do the Euro weeklies show for weeks 3 and 4? We don't see them. If they were cold in week 3, wouldn't agree with that MJO outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 We don't see them. If they were cold in week 3, wouldn't agree with that MJO outlook. From what I read online, week 1 below normal temps, duh. week 2 above normal temps. week 3 on the northern edge of above normal temps. week 4 below normal temps just north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Looks like were cycling back into a mild, dry period. May be this winters pattern.with only transient cold. We start entering the half of the winter where most of the ssw events do occur, so there should be another possible forcing mechanism for change. To date ABE is now above normal for snowfall for this season, not bad for such a warm December. Been a fall line winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 From what I read online, week 1 below normal temps, duh. week 2 above normal temps. week 3 on the northern edge of above normal temps. week 4 below normal temps just north of us. Doesn't mean its correct, but its consistent with that MJO outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 We start entering the half of the winter where most of the ssw events do occur, so there should be another possible forcing mechanism for change. To date ABE is now above normal for snowfall for this season, not bad for such a warm December. Been a fall line winter so far. Recently its been tough to beat phl on snowfall. Could be payback time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Let me clarify, that would be week three of Janurary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Maybe more of an ob, but just to illustrate the difference between last year and this year: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 30, 2012 Author Share Posted December 30, 2012 One thing that is concerning is the fact of driving in true arctic air into the US. We see forecasts of it out in time, but when it comes in closer in range it disappears. That's probably another reason why the fall line south and east have missed out on all the storms so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Long range thoughts. Agree with Tony and others on much of the above. 1. Seasonably cool first week of the month. It looks like a lack of phasing prevents any big storms. Though would be not be totally shocked to see one of these systems sneak across southern areas. 2. The MJO pulse leads to a seasonably warm week 2 for Jan. Could go back to a lakes cutter or two. 3. The stratospheric progression appears very favorable for weeks 3 and 4. This is where the fun will be in Jan. I suspect the GFS is about 5 days early with the pattern yet again. All of this is currenty showing in the latest ECMWF weekly forecast as well. Thanks for your analysis, you have definitely been a plus to this forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Maybe more of an ob, but just to illustrate the difference between last year and this year: Its not often you see that image and this image for the same winter month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 One thing that is concerning is the fact of driving in true arctic air into the US. We see forecasts of it out in time, but when it comes in closer in range it disappears. That's probably another reason why the fall line south and east have missed out on all the storms so far. Especially in December snow begets cold and without the snow its tough to get cold. In spite of the cold November, the conus started with below average snow cover and then it became warm. Even as the previous post shows, sometimes it doesn't matter even if it does snow (but not often). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 12z euro is bone dry for the entire Mt.Holly CWA(except for very light precip in the Delmarva For the entire 240hrs. Cold air gets locked up in northern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 30, 2012 Author Share Posted December 30, 2012 12z euro is bone dry for the entire Mt.Holly CWA(except for very light precip in the Delmarva For the entire 240hrs. Cold air gets locked up in northern Canada. yea its pretty ugly post day 7. Return to abv normal with a cutter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 96 hr euro northern branch much dif than other models. Wonder if that cam drop down farther south and west for a phase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 30, 2012 Author Share Posted December 30, 2012 96 hr euro northern branch much dif than other models. Wonder if that cam drop down farther south and west for a phase... it has a long way to trend, its not really even close...the trof is very positive oriented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Looks pretty meh for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 yea its pretty ugly post day 7. Return to abv normal with a cutter pattern. How long till the "winter cancel" posts start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I thought Early January was suppose to be our shot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 30, 2012 Author Share Posted December 30, 2012 How long till the "winter cancel" posts start? in some people's eyes, south of 95 it hasn't even begun yet. Though i will say this. If that ssw/msw occurs that could throw a wrench into everything. Things change, im sure by tonight the 12z will look different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 im sure by tonight the 12z will look different. Nah, I'm sure the 12Z will look the same by tonight. 0Z might look different though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 30, 2012 Author Share Posted December 30, 2012 Nah, I'm sure the 12Z will look the same by tonight. 0Z might look different though lol damn you...im typing and watching the eagles humiliate themselves...guess that's what i deserve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Tom I realized that, just grasping for any hope because if that fails the next 10-15 days look boring as the pattern relaxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 30, 2012 Author Share Posted December 30, 2012 Tom I realized that, just grasping for any hope because if that fails the next 10-15 days look boring as the pattern relaxes. we are going to need something to sneak up on us. I don't see a major storm but a little clipper or disturbance will do to. Outside of that it looks to be pretty meh, with cutter chances increasing after this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I thought Early January was suppose to be our shot? The pattern whatever you want to call it has been lurking there starting in week 2 of January for a little while, its the forecast cold but allegedly dry prior to that which is messing our shot(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Tom I realized that, just grasping for any hope because if that fails the next 10-15 days look boring as the pattern relaxes. Sometimes we get the nice storms when the pattern is relaxed. Think SWFE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 With the MJO projected to be in phase 4-5-6, and the cold air locked Up over Canada with a pretty positive NAO, I wouldn't expect much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 MJO Phase 4-5-6 tends to favor Lakes Cutters, right? I'm cool with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 MJO Phase 4-5-6 tends to favor Lakes Cutters, right? I'm cool with that. maybe what we need to reload higher heights into eastern Canada and Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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