Harbourton Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 by the way, adam on the main page thinks this cold shot is short lived.(2,maybe 3 weeks).... looking at some of the longer range GEFS, it goes back to a pretty wretched pacific. Adam says the MJO /tropics become unfavorable after this brief window. think of this as a reverse jan thaw..... Two weeks would be great compared to last year! Oh and by the way is the MJO the kingpin as compared to the other teleconnections? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Two weeks would be great compared to last year! Oh and by the way is the MJO the kingpin as compared to the other teleconnections? MJO is one of the predictive teleconnections. The pna for example is the result of other forcing. The MJO does the forcing. It's not the be all end all by any means, but is one of the stronger medium range signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro 10-day ensemble. Cold with PV strongest now on this side of the pole. Not as stormy have to rely on clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Hopefully we cash on the dec30 event because while it does look cold that pattern would be really dry imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z gfs is a pure weenie run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 by the way, adam on the main page thinks this cold shot is short lived.(2,maybe 3 weeks).... looking at some of the longer range GEFS, it goes back to a pretty wretched pacific. Adam says the MJO /tropics become unfavorable after this brief window. think of this as a reverse jan thaw..... I would agree if there isnt any mode conflict from ssw (so far the fluxing has been equatorally not favorable) or the aam (I'm not good with this so call me clueless). The NAEFS has been holding onto week 2 normal temps so far. But down the road the mjo outlooks have also been holding on to warmer phases mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 So anything coming up after to first of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The jan 3rd storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Haven't heard much about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 There was a thread in the mid Atlantic forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 There is already a thread for the January 3rd threat: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAEFS holding steady with near normal temps for us and (thank-you Captain obvious) in January it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Last nights Euro 10-day ensemble mean. Not a wintry map for MA with weak W coast ridging and SE high. Strong progressive flow along E coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Not an expert on the MJO but it looks like it may be heading for some serious forcing around mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Not an expert on the MJO but it looks like it may be heading for some serious forcing around mid January. Yep, and obviously, in all the Warm composite phases for us eastern conus folks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yep, and obviously, in all the Warm composite phases for us eastern conus folks!! im not sure what the lag for the mjo is, but i would assume about a week or two? The next 10 days look normal to slightly below. Models still have a split flow at day ten with pv sitting over baffin island, which would keep the cold close by for some sneaky cold. Post 10 days looks like a warm up for a couple days, but it looks like the gefs are trying to shoot a decent ridge up into northeastern canada/alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 im not sure what the lag for the mjo is, but i would assume about a week or two? The next 10 days look normal to slightly below. Models still have a split flow at day ten with pv sitting over baffin island, which would keep the cold close by for some sneaky cold. Post 10 days looks like a warm up for a couple days, but it looks like the gefs are trying to shoot a decent ridge up into northeastern canada/alaska We'll stay below normal/normal as long as the PV keeps a tight gradient near us. If/once it lifts out, we could get a warm shot. This might be one of those times where a positive NAO keeps us cold. Gradient style pattern as long as heights are higher along the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 216 euro ensembles: NAO looks sliiiiightly positive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 ps, my thinking is that we get cold, seasonable, slight warm up from now until about mid Jan (15-20th).. from there, its a crap shoot. If we can get the NAO to rebuild negative back into greenland, and weaken the PV that is getting into place now, we could be in business. As far as precip goes, we have potential. Split flow with active STJ will keep storms ejecting down south. Whether or not 1 can turn the coast with such sharp confluence above us is antoher story. if i were a gambling man, i'd say cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Looking at the 12Z teleconnections and the GFS individual memebers, I think we have storm chances coming up. Not like last year. Only problem is the PNA which I hope gets a boost later on in January from the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 im not sure what the lag for the mjo is, but i would assume about a week or two? The next 10 days look normal to slightly below. Models still have a split flow at day ten with pv sitting over baffin island, which would keep the cold close by for some sneaky cold. Post 10 days looks like a warm up for a couple days, but it looks like the gefs are trying to shoot a decent ridge up into northeastern canada/alaska I'm not sure what phase you are lagging from and then into, but phases 4 and 5 are warm and the DJF correlations with them are pretty significant. Crossing 5 into 6 and the heart of a cold pattern usually takes about two weeks. The NAEFS centered around Jan 10th just ticked warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 arctic to tropic's for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 At least the polar vortex will be on our side of the world for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ago4snow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Apparently the feeling that the polar vortex will hang in there is not unanimous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Apparently the feeling that the polar vortex will hang in there is not unanimous. Depends whether you believe the euro or GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ago4snow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The ensemble mean seems to show that the mean longwave trough hangs in there in the east. These are GFS based, correct? Would tend to agree with ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Depends whether you believe the euro or GFS. Euro ensemble mean is not as cold as the operational. Sometime down the road if the MJO outlook is correct, there's going to be an above normal stretch. The PV if that far north doesn't teleconnect well with below normal temps here. That's where the PV was last winter. Lower Hudson Bay, different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 0z GFS gives some hope in the long range for the return of some heights into Greenland. Displaces the PV south towards Hudson Bay, builds some nice ridging into alaska, return the -AO, -NAO. Probably overdone, but its something. It doesn't show the PV sitting on the pole and locking the cold air. And while the heart of the cold would be over the mid wwest, this would put us in the gradient/boundary for storms. 0z GEFS shows the higher heights in the higher lats as well: Before that, we go through some moderation. But unlike last year, we don't look to torch. Maybe slightly above for a time, but the PV towards the Hudson Bay should build some cold air and confluence to our north. Also, the ECM has a decent MJO wave building. Warm phases per se, but it looks healthy, and could be the start of something where the tropics start having an influence on the pattern: If that wave could make it to phase, 7, it would lend creedence to the above posted GEFS map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 0z GFS gives some hope in the long range for the return of some heights into Greenland. Displaces the PV south towards Hudson Bay, builds some nice ridging into alaska, return the -AO, -NAO. Probably overdone, but its something. It doesn't show the PV sitting on the pole and locking the cold air. And while the heart of the cold would be over the mid wwest, this would put us in the gradient/boundary for storms. 0z GEFS shows the higher heights in the higher lats as well: Before that, we go through some moderation. But unlike last year, we don't look to torch. Maybe slightly above for a time, but the PV towards the Hudson Bay should build some cold air and confluence to our north. Also, the ECM has a decent MJO wave building. Warm phases per se, but it looks healthy, and could be the start of something where the tropics start having an influence on the pattern: If that wave could make it to phase, 7, it would lend creedence to the above posted GEFS map. The problem is one of them has to be wrong. EC MJO is in warm phase 5 and would contradict the 500mb outlook the GEFS map has. If you ask me to take a WAG about which one is wrong on Jan 13th, I'd go with the GEFS. That being said give it another week or two (the stratosphere is starting to look better, the first time I've seen polar e-p fluxing outlooked this winter), that 500mb pattern could be right (colder nonetheless), one of those delayed but not denied. Wouldn't be the first time the GFS is too fast with a pattern switch (that goes in either direction). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Looks like were cycling back into a mild, dry period. May be this winters pattern with only transient cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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