ChescoWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Latest on JBs Festivus Miracle snow in the vendor thread for your reading pleasure if you dare.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 18z GFS 2m Temps @ 162 hrs is down into North Carolina, 850s are warm, this could be an epic freezing rain storm if 18z GFS fantasy land happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 If...we get precip lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Epic icestorm on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 First truly promising sequence for a colder pattern starting to show up on the GEFS beyond next week's storm last night. Looks like we are getting an -ao/+pna connection. Roundy assisted? There is another ssw suggestion showing up in Siberia, but I never know if these will occur and if they do will it just pull a Feb 2012 on us. Either way the former looks promising. The NAEFS while not cold has been cooling NOAM the last week or so. Normal would cut it in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 First truly promising sequence for a colder pattern starting to show up on the GEFS beyond next week's storm last night. Looks like we are getting an -ao/+pna connection. Roundy assisted? There is another ssw suggestion showing up in Siberia, but I never know if these will occur and if they do will it just pull a Feb 2012 on us. Either way the former looks promising. The NAEFS while not cold has been cooling NOAM the last week or so. Normal would cut it in January. Tony, to me the roundy mjo looks blah just very weak -olr, to me that says COD lingerance with no real big wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Way out in time, but thats what you want see. Nice +pna development with cross polar flow aimed right at the eastern US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Tony, to me the roundy mjo looks blah just very weak -olr, to me that says COD lingerance with no real big wave. Either way the correlation for phases 1 and 2 being cold in the northeast centered on January are better than December. Not as great as 8, but then again 1 and 2 don't rhyme with 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Way out in time, but thats what you want see. Nice +pna development with cross polar flow aimed right at the eastern US Euro ensemble 10 day also starting to look favorable. Similar to GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Latest EURO for Pottstown doesn't seem that encouraging.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Latest EURO for Pottstown doesn't seem that encouraging.... yea the euro is primarily a rain event for everyone, might start as some frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Just want to post this from the cfs. This is the 2m temp forecast for january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 New Years and beginning of Jan looks amazing on the GFS. weakened PV north of us, wst based NAO, split flow, PNA spike., -EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro 10-day ensembles continue to trend to a cold stormy look. Nice cold air source developing in Canada. Split flow on W coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The CPC D+8 analog composite looks very cold with precipitation for the Mt Holly forecast area. The top analog is Christmas 1966 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 man, the 12z gfs continues to bring it down the road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 man, the 12z gfs continues to bring it down the road 12z Euro looks mighty interesting around Jan 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 split flow, pna spike, cold air plentiful, decent blocking.... Bout the best map we've seen since jan 11' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Strongly -AO, PNA moving in the right direction, active STJ...pieces are starting to line up. Hopefully it works out for us. Also don't decent storms tend to happen out here when the PNA is transitioning? I suppose all we lack right now is an El Nino, but neutral certainly beats a strong La Nina. Then again the NAO may be going positive soon, so that could hurt. Still, I think things are fairly decent over the next week or two--not sure about further down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Strongly -AO, PNA moving in the right direction, active STJ...pieces are starting to line up. Hopefully it works out for us. Also don't decent storms tend to happen out here when the PNA is transitioning? I suppose all we lack right now is an El Nino, but neutral certainly beats a strong La Nina. Then again the NAO may be going positive soon, so that could hurt. Still, I think things are fairly decent over the next week or two--not sure about further down the line. Actually I think they are more likely when the NAO is transitioning, not the PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Actually I think they are more likely when the NAO is transitioning, not the PNA. Ah thanks for the clarification, I wasn't entirely sure which it was. Then I guess it may be good after all (at least temporarily). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS honking big time around NEw years. split flow.. ULL spits out energy, heavy mositure coming from SW of BAJA into SE US while PV dropping south of Hudson into central US.. like a frozen turkey in hot grease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Irish, not only that there may be another wave before that as well. I'd be shocked if we don't score sometime by the 2nd week of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS honking big time around NEw years. split flow.. ULL spits out energy, heavy mositure coming from SW of BAJA into SE US while PV dropping south of Hudson into central US.. like a frozen turkey in hot grease. Let's hope the "always ten days away" bug doesn't hold serve over these next couple weeks. There is certainly plenty to keep an eye on...trying to remain realistic about the chances haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 We've gone from no threats to 3-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The Euro 10 day ensembles keep trending colder. .Starting to look like a prolonged wintry period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The Euro 10 day ensembles keep trending colder. .Starting to look like a prolonged wintry period. Slowly settling into winter it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looking at the various teleconnections at 12Z, I think the storm around the 1st or 2nd has the best chance. Also may be the coldest air following that we've seen in quite awhile.Just update Chubbs map from the above post. Trans Siberian flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 by the way, adam on the main page thinks this cold shot is short lived.(2,maybe 3 weeks).... looking at some of the longer range GEFS, it goes back to a pretty wretched pacific. Adam says the MJO /tropics become unfavorable after this brief window. think of this as a reverse jan thaw..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 holly extended range 0z euro trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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