NaoPos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 ^^ that showing convection around the dateline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 For us who are a little bit more "weather" challenged could you spell it out? I'm assuming though it's probably not good if you want snow. ^^ that showing convection around the dateline? Yeah, the pattern will continue to become more and more conducive for East Coast snow as we head through the holidays, but if I were betting, I'd wait until around the New Year to come up with something for the I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Yeah, the pattern will continue to become more and more conducive for East Coast snow as we head through the holidays, but if I were betting, I'd wait until around the New Year to come up with something for the I-95 corridor. Is this outlook slower getting to 180W than a couple of the previous issuances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Is this outlook slower getting to 180W than a couple of the previous issuances? Yep. It's about a week slower than what it was forecasting at the beginning of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 If I'm not mistaken, convection around the dateline usually means a -EPO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 If I'm not mistaken, convection around the dateline usually means a -EPO? Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 And just to show the pattern is somewhat changing, here's the 6z GfS Today Then hour 132 Check out the height differences in Alaska. This cuts off the lower heights/colder feeding into BC and the west coast, slowly eroding them away, eating away at the neg PNA. This isn't going to be instantaneous, and will take a week or so to establish itself and reset, so to speak, the higher latitudes. More needs to happen, but it's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fwarder Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 And just to show the pattern is somewhat changing, here's the 6z GfS Today Then hour 132 Check out the height differences in Alaska. This cuts off the lower heights/colder feeding into BC and the west coast, slowly eroding them away, eating away at the neg PNA. This isn't going to be instantaneous, and will take a week or so to establish itself and reset, so to speak, the higher latitudes. More needs to happen, but it's a start. nice grahpic, looks like the mega ridge over alaska region moves east and almost hooks up with greenland ridge to pinch off the polar vortex that is feeding the west coast trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 http://www.atmos.alb...S_7.5N/2012.png Its a decent wave but the -olr are pretty weak, just doesn't say a really robust mjo in my eyes. The phase is good moving towards 8 which cold and increase east coast storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 May be a shot at snow showers on Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 On another note, I do see the potential for small hail tomorrow afternoon from scattered showers, steep low level lapse rates expected. I've been in short term land today. Feel free to pass along any small hail reports if it does occur. Otherwise enjoy more fog with a side order of fog tonight . You nailed it. A brief period of small hail just passed in Horsham, PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Good amount of small hail reports around the region today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Well, after the curse of the Christmas Cutters, looks like the cold stars to bleed into the US. That's promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Well, after the curse of the Christmas Cutters, looks like the cold stars to bleed into the US. That's promising I don't know, Irishbri, it seems to me that 10-day cold T progs are like unicorns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I think we still have to look for redevelopment in the next storm system. Before truncation on the GFS and on the ensembles, the block looked better. It is not a great chance just yet, but the long range is encouraging, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Latest thoughts from JB at Weatherbell and Steve D from NJ PA Weather in the Vendor thread for those interested....enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Nobody is going to like 0Z GFS. It did this cool time travel thing and moved the cutter up two whole days to christmas day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Nobody is going to like 0Z GFS. It did this cool time travel thing and moved the cutter up two whole days to christmas day Some MAJOR differences how it handles the shortwaves interacting as they hit the coast... The streams remain seperate, the Xmas precip is entirely northern stream, the southern stream remains progressive, and digs I to the gulf... Big differences verbatim on that run. It's actually a huge step towards something interesting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Some MAJOR differences how it handles the shortwaves interacting as they hit the coast... The streams remain seperate, the Xmas precip is entirely northern stream, the southern stream remains progressive, and digs I to the gulf... Big differences verbatim on that run. It's actually a huge step towards something interesting here. yup big changes models in chaos beyond the mid range, anythings possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 If that first piece of energy "the little christmas cutter" is a little stronger would really setup the system coming from the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 sorry if this isnt allowed to be posted(delete if it isn't), but heres the difference i was talking about: the 2 streams remain separate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 and just another example of the differences between 0z &18z through 6z xmas morning: flatter ridge, less digging: no phase off the over cali/SW US stronger block towards the davis straights... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 euro ens mean on temps 15 days out -- coldest of cold is in west. Odds favor us being seasonal to slightly below (nothing we can't handle). Definitely nothing like the first 20 days of this December though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 and just another example of the differences between 0z &18z through 6z xmas morning: flatter ridge, less digging: no phase off the over cali/SW US stronger block towards the davis straights... All models split the western trough last night which is a big change. Increases the snow threat further east though still unlikely here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The call from AccuWeather is...baby steps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Some thoughts from this morning on the potential for upcoming events from Joe D' Aleo at Weatherbell over in the vendor section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 While the NAO continues to be outlooked negative, the Pacific looks to remain well meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Interesting to note that the Op GFS at 0z was much slower than virtually all of its ens members. With the 6z GEFS, only 2 members are more wrapped up/west of the Op (which may be biasing the mean that way since one gets down into the 970's) while the rest look more strung-out. At least 5 panels look like they would deliver snow somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic (although that's not to say all 5 are bombs for Philly...that's hardly the case). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 With the Rex Block holding firm, you would think the Eastern track is more plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Ladies and gentlemen, I give you your weenie run: The 0z FIM, goes full-blown Miller B with at least 0.50" falling as snow along and northwest of 95. With that track you'd think there would be temperature issues, but the 540 line is right on 95. I'm not sure what that purple "32" line is. Since it's Fahrenheit, I'd guess surface temp, but I would've guessed that's too far south for a 32 F isotherm in a set-up like that, so I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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