tombo82685 Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 The weird thing is that the 6-10 and 8-12 day analogs are above normal. Hope the cold pans out. the dump would be in the west first and that is a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 the dump would be in the west first and that is a week away. That makes sense. The cold dump in the West on the analogs is a pretty significant one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Interior with a hit on the Euro. GFS has a New England special. NBC News already running with headlines. Sandy aside, I'm still partly cynical of rapid phasing beyond day 5. Before Sandy no one would have had to bat an eye at next week's system. Now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Sandy aside, I'm still partly cynical of rapid phasing beyond day 5. Before Sandy no one would have had to bat an eye at next week's system. Now... EHH.. tend to disagree tony. the tropics have been boring before sandy. we're now entering nor'easter season. we'd be all over this in terms of tracking. Now, the media on the other hand, will be all over this while the sensastionalism is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 EHH.. tend to disagree tony. the tropics have been boring before sandy. we're now entering nor'easter season. we'd be all over this in terms of tracking. Now, the media on the other hand, will be all over this while the sensastionalism is there. I think you missed his point. I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Sandy aside, I'm still partly cynical of rapid phasing beyond day 5. Before Sandy no one would have had to bat an eye at next week's system. Now... to the 2nd part of your post...why is that a good thing? You see 7-10 day forecasts on the news all the time. Shouldn't they show potential storms even if accuracy is low. What's wrong with telling the public that model accuracy at the Day 7-10 range is low, however some show a potential storm Next week? Shouldn't the entire field of meteorology strive to get better at long range forecasts? Will we only be able to forecast accurately out to 3 days for the rest of infinity? There is a difference between the media HYPING a storm 7 days away & actually aware the public of the POTENTIAL while ENFORCING the knowledge of the model accuracy in that time frame. Thats how it should be at least in my opinion. I hate to turn the news, see the 7-day forecast, and look at "Partly Cloudy" and Avg temps for the 7-10 day. The whole point of your job is to aware people as far ahead as possible. I'd be interested in your opinion on this. As for this potential storm it was kind of interesting how the models really slowed the shortwave over the states. It slows down enough to allow the northern shortwave to catch up and phase with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Well, 0Z guidance is pretty much on board for "something" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Sandy aside, I'm still partly cynical of rapid phasing beyond day 5. Before Sandy no one would have had to bat an eye at next week's system. Now... Always. And agree on your second part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 LOL at the 0z Euro. 12+ in LV/NEPA. 8-12" in MDT/LNS. Big gradient between LNS and PHL, which has maybe a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 It looks like their could be a big dump of cold air in about a week or so for the US. Pretty strong mtn torque event occurring right now. Wild card is if the mjo can swing out of the COD into phase 8, that would teleconnect to a colder east coast. Though i think phase 6/7 entrance makes sense, then it goes into phase 8. Which would correlate to a dump into north central plains/rockies region then comes east. Agree with a big dump of cold air, but the MT "event" isn't the reason - it's weak. You need to get above 3 x 1019 before you get excited. MJO is going to behave like P2-P3-P4 for the next two weeks, but the convection is off equatorial, so you won't see it in the typical phase space charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 Agree with a big dump of cold air, but the MT "event" isn't the reason - it's weak. You need to get above 3 x 1019 before you get excited. MJO is going to behave like P2-P3-P4 for the next two weeks, but the convection is off equatorial, so you won't see it in the typical phase space charts. o ok well learned something new today on the mtn torque. what are you using for mjo the roundy one? cause i was looking the euro and its ens yest and it had phase 2 but then into COD then looked like an emergence into phase 6 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 o ok well learned something new today on the mtn torque. what are you using for mjo the roundy one? cause i was looking the euro and its ens yest and it had phase 2 but then into COD then looked like an emergence into phase 6 or so. Yeah, Roundy and the Aussie stat stuff. Both keep the tropics active across the NIO with subsidence near the dateline (all located at about 10-15N, rather than the equator). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 euro 0z weenie snow map for next week. should we create a thread for next weeks potential event yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 euro 0z weenie snow map for next week. should we create a thread for next weeks potential event yet? Very interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 euro 0z weenie snow map for next week. should we create a thread for next weeks potential event yet? Let's give it a few more runs for here. If this was the Albany or Worcester subforum, I'd say go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 The Euro is a nice setup for a Philly snowstorm too bad its early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Let's give it a few more runs for here. If this was the Albany or Worcester subforum, I'd say go for it. glad u didn't say ny forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Agree with a big dump of cold air, but the MT "event" isn't the reason - it's weak. You need to get above 3 x 1019 before you get excited. MJO is going to behave like P2-P3-P4 for the next two weeks, but the convection is off equatorial, so you won't see it in the typical phase space charts. Bingo, well stated. This is just yet another example of how octant charts can, on occasion, not be representative of the actual picture. The signal for this storm showed up well before Sandy, so that sort of relieves Tony's concerns to some extent. But, I do agree that the post-Sandy fear/hype is going to be tough to deal with, especially if it coincides with our thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 to the 2nd part of your post...why is that a good thing? You see 7-10 day forecasts on the news all the time. Shouldn't they show potential storms even if accuracy is low. What's wrong with telling the public that model accuracy at the Day 7-10 range is low, however some show a potential storm Next week? Shouldn't the entire field of meteorology strive to get better at long range forecasts? Will we only be able to forecast accurately out to 3 days for the rest of infinity? There is a difference between the media HYPING a storm 7 days away & actually aware the public of the POTENTIAL while ENFORCING the knowledge of the model accuracy in that time frame. Thats how it should be at least in my opinion. I hate to turn the news, see the 7-day forecast, and look at "Partly Cloudy" and Avg temps for the 7-10 day. The whole point of your job is to aware people as far ahead as possible. I'd be interested in your opinion on this. As for this potential storm it was kind of interesting how the models really slowed the shortwave over the states. It slows down enough to allow the northern shortwave to catch up and phase with it. If Sandy did not occur, the property damage and tidal flooding outcome of a system as it is modeled today would be minor along the New Jersey coast. Nearly anyone that lives along the coast would have viewed this as nearly a business as usual coastal storm for November, that was my point. Now the sensitivity and vulnerability level are both obviously higher because of what happened and the state of the shore. My post had absolutely nothing to do with what the media is or is not saying about the next system or anyone on this board. I have better confidence about earlier phasing if the solution persists within 5 days. There has been the more typical model noise with this system, first the GFS emphasizing the first, now questions about how quickly will the phasing occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I think you missed his point. I think... Yup, my point was missed. See Andy's post below this one. This is what I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 But, I do agree that the post-Sandy fear/hype is going to be tough to deal with, especially if it coincides with our thoughts. Already have people here at work talking about another big nor'easter coming next week and very worried since many don't have power yet. Many will be in fear for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 So what's the skinny on the next event? I have no power still so tracking via my blackberry gonna be tough. I did see Typhoon Tip mention that the next system is going to have tropical involvement once again. Wth?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 So what's the skinny on the next event? I have no power still so tracking via my blackberry gonna be tough. I did see Typhoon Tip mention that the next system is going to have tropical involvement once again. Wth?!?! no, I believe he was referencing that the 0z and 6z GFS showed a tropical system coming north in the Atlantic in the long range. after truncation and out over the ocean, but unusual to see so late in the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Bingo, well stated. This is just yet another example of how octant charts can, on occasion, not be representative of the actual picture. The signal for this storm showed up well before Sandy, so that sort of relieves Tony's concerns to some extent. But, I do agree that the post-Sandy fear/hype is going to be tough to deal with, especially if it coincides with our thoughts. Oh snap! I forgot you called this storm like a month ago (or longer) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 12Z GFS is a near miss and the 12Z NOGAPS is way out to sea for the midweek event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 12Z GFS is a near miss and the 12Z NOGAPS is way out to sea for the midweek event. Euro and UKIE disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Kpantz I never really paid attention to jersey coast during similar storms like the EURO is modelling. Obviously this wouldnt help the cleanup efforts but could there actually be winds/flooding issues if euro played out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 All rain in Philly on the 12z Euro. Susquehanna Valley sees a dusting. Apps big winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 12Z GFS is a near miss and the 12Z NOGAPS is way out to sea for the midweek event. The Nogaps was pretty much in tandem with the Euro on Sandy, is it back to normal? I see the "gap" between the Euro (and UKMET) and the NOAM models has not narrowed today. Its almost a geographical Sandy repeat with respect to the distance differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Kpantz I never really paid attention to jersey coast during similar storms like the EURO is modelling. Obviously this wouldnt help the cleanup efforts but could there actually be winds/flooding issues if euro played out? I'm pretty sure there wouldn't be any freshwater flooding there (though some of the better hydro guys can feel free to correct me). This isn't all that deep (~995mb), so I doubt there would be much of a surge, either, though obviously any surge is bad right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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