am19psu Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 What that looks to me is a 2ndry. Looks like a primary cuts north as you can see with the appendage to the west. Then you get a 2ndry coastal in that spot. That's exactly what it is. Primary goes to PIT and dies, secondary forms off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 That's exactly what it is. Primary goes to PIT and dies, secondary forms off the Delmarva. With a normal cold airmass in front of that track phl would prob start frozen then switch over to rain. I would imagine their is some sort of high pressure up in canada up in that confluence to have some cold air to start with. Once the 2ndry takes over the winds would switch to the northeast and colder air would filter back in and possibly switch back over to snow. Plces like abe and nyc north would prob stay mostly frozen. That all is dependent on when the coastal depicted in that image would become the primary low. Way to far out to hammer down, but its nice seeing the models throwing in the potential for something other than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 !! Haha jk buddy. Didn't that that storm have a juiced up PNA? yea it had a very juiced up ridge and goa low....if we didn't have that -nao dec would of been flooded with warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Thanks Tom for run info. Its like the old days again. Glad we have something to track the next few days. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 +1 threadkiller again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Don Sutherland has a nice post in the main forum about late december. Encouragine news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GFS a warmer look this run and disorganized meh just a hiccup of a run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Bombs eventually but warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GFS a warmer look this run and disorganized meh just a hiccup of a run Heard the northern stream didn't get involved enough this run, and we need that for the colder air. We have to see if this is a trend or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Most of that GFS run didn't make meteorological sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Hits a big old atmospheric roadblock and crawls away at a snails pace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Most of that GFS run didn't make meteorological sense. Fully agree there and even with this solution there are hints it should go colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 0z euro is a coastal hugger.... 980 inside the benchmark... nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 0z euro is a coastal hugger.... 980 inside the benchmark... nice. If surface was to be cold enough it would be about 6-12 inches. Even with a coastal hugger it is colder then the GFS at the 850 level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 through 186, euro has 2.5" liquid... between the 2 systems, 1st system is pretty warm for anyone south of Albany... that 2nd storm averages 1" liquid... temp profiles aside... def a lehigh valley-poconos crusher... philly would be borderline... we'll see what happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Fwiw, 12z GFS long range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 This would be the best X-mas present of all. Next week's cold rain sets the stage for something around the 23rd/24th......its been out there suppressed for a while now but I think that's our good shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Earthlight: The Euro ensembles look incredible at 180+hrs...204hr has a PNA spike out west, a big block from the D Straight into Central Canada..and a big ridge building over the Aleutians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Even if we do not have a white christmas (Not going to say weather we will or not) It sure as heck is looking cold compered to some other years if everything were to go right. Now if only I could get the darn lakes to freeze over upstate or even down here this winter for some ice fishing last year was absolutely horrible. even in central pa no lakes were frozen over. Hopefully the cold in the long range hangs around for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Even if we do not have a white christmas (Not going to say weather we will or not) It sure as heck is looking cold compered to some other years if everything were to go right. Now if only I could get the darn lakes to freeze over upstate or even down here this winter for some ice fishing last year was absolutely horrible. even in central pa no lakes were frozen over. Hopefully the cold in the long range hangs around for awhile. This is what i care about the most right now. I can't stand Xmas in the upper 50s/low 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 But still amazing that the GFS can't seem to sync up the cold and the storms in the long-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 But still amazing that the GFS can't seem to sync up the cold and the storms in the long-range. Wouldn't worry about the 190hr+ storm threats when it just did some funky things overnight and this am with next week time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Wouldn't worry about the 190hr+ storm threats when it just did some funky things overnight and this am with next week time period. Not to sound JB'ish at all, but I think at the very least we can say the "ducks are on the pond" :loon: At least this is something to track, more than what we can say last week at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I'm still holding out hope that around the 23-25th we see something legit for our area with cold air actually around and in place. To me these next 2 systems are nothing but rainmakers for most of us....but hopefully they set the stage for something nice right into X-mas. Guidance really has been hitting on this for a few days now but most are focused on the immediate events.....which don't seem very promising for us at all. Not only does the storm at 216 hours on the GFS have a good signal on the ensembles as it comes into the Western US and then eastward, there is a nicely placed block..50/50 low..cold air supply and a well signaled west coast ridge spike on an axis near Boise. This would place the storm around the 22nd-24th. I could be wrong (obviously), but I believe that the chances that we are cold enough during a major storm prior to December 22nd are extremely remote. Heights are just too low on the west coast that any intensifying storm in the east would hook too far to the left prior to the 22nd. After then, all bets are off. WX/PT Yeah, that OP day 10 Euro is one of the best looking patterns we've seen since...well December 2010. It's like a weenie drew the map. The Aleutian Ridge, the PNA ridge, and our NAO block are all bridging together. This would be a sustained, blockbuster pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 DT woofin on his Fb page this am about Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 DT woofin on his Fb page this am about Xmas. euro ens have a storm that would probably skirt the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 DT woofin on his Fb page this am about Xmas. Last nights euro 10 day is a classic MA snowstorm setup: 50/50 low, west coast ridge, amplifying wave in middle of country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Wouldn't worry about the 190hr+ storm threats when it just did some funky things overnight and this am with next week time period. Yea i wouldn't worry about the storm threat issue. Once we lose this -nao better hope we can alter the pacific because we will go right back to where we just were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 12z GFS pops a nice west coast ridge D8. Period just before xmas has some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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