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Medium/Long Range Discussion


tombo82685

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That's exactly what it is. Primary goes to PIT and dies, secondary forms off the Delmarva.

With a normal cold airmass in front of that track phl would prob start frozen then switch over to rain. I would imagine their is some sort of high pressure up in canada up in that confluence to have some cold air to start with. Once the 2ndry takes over the winds would switch to the northeast and colder air would filter back in and possibly switch back over to snow. Plces like abe and nyc north would prob stay mostly frozen. That all is dependent on when the coastal depicted in that image would become the primary low. Way to far out to hammer down, but its nice seeing the models throwing in the potential for something other than rain.

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through 186, euro has 2.5" liquid... between the 2 systems, 1st system is pretty warm for anyone south of Albany... that

2nd storm averages 1" liquid... temp profiles aside... def a lehigh valley-poconos crusher... philly would be borderline... we'll see what happens...

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Even if we do not have a white christmas (Not going to say weather we will or not) It sure as heck is looking cold compered to some other years if everything were to go right. Now if only I could get the darn lakes to freeze over upstate or even down here this winter for some ice fishing last year was absolutely horrible. even in central pa no lakes were frozen over. Hopefully the cold in the long range hangs around for awhile.

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Even if we do not have a white christmas (Not going to say weather we will or not) It sure as heck is looking cold compered to some other years if everything were to go right. Now if only I could get the darn lakes to freeze over upstate or even down here this winter for some ice fishing last year was absolutely horrible. even in central pa no lakes were frozen over. Hopefully the cold in the long range hangs around for awhile.

This is what i care about the most right now. I can't stand Xmas in the upper 50s/low 60s.

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Wouldn't worry about the 190hr+ storm threats when it just did some funky things overnight and this am with next week time period.

Not to sound JB'ish at all, but I think at the very least we can say the "ducks are on the pond" :loon: :loon: At least this is something to track, more than what we can say last week at this time.

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I'm still holding out hope that around the 23-25th we see something legit for our area with cold air actually around and in place. To me these next 2 systems are nothing but rainmakers for most of us....but hopefully they set the stage for something nice right into X-mas. Guidance really has been hitting on this for a few days now but most are focused on the immediate events.....which don't seem very promising for us at all.

Not only does the storm at 216 hours on the GFS have a good signal on the ensembles as it comes into the Western US and then eastward, there is a nicely placed block..50/50 low..cold air supply and a well signaled west coast ridge spike on an axis near Boise. This would place the storm around the 22nd-24th.
I could be wrong (obviously), but I believe that the chances that we are cold enough during a major storm prior to December 22nd are extremely remote. Heights are just too low on the west coast that any intensifying storm in the east would hook too far to the left prior to the 22nd. After then, all bets are off. WX/PT
Yeah, that OP day 10 Euro is one of the best looking patterns we've seen since...well December 2010. It's like a weenie drew the map. The Aleutian Ridge, the PNA ridge, and our NAO block are all bridging together. This would be a sustained, blockbuster pattern. 00zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif
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