NaoPos Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 before ppl starting gooing in their pants, just remember the gfs is the only one showing this...that should be enough to settle down some people. The euro has a storm, it's just a cutter-redeveloper. If the gfs & euro has the block correct, I can't see how the euro drives it straight to the lakes.... I'm Not saying the gfs is correct, but the euro solution seems less plausible. Maybe some type of hybrid miller A(gulf low coming inland and then jumping the coast)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Here is the 12z ggem for the same time. Just a small area of lgt snow over oh valley and western pa associated with a weak low. the storm that departs on sunday/monday really flattens out the flow in the se that crushes any storm to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 The euro has a storm, it's just a cutter-redeveloper. If the gfs & euro has the block correct, I can't see how the euro drives it straight to the lakes.... it can still drive it north, it would just have to re develop at some point. That all depends on how strong the block is. You can clearly see the diference that the euro has the block further north, while the gfs is further south. Also, the euro is developing the storm faster and pupming the hgts out ahead of it more so than the gfs which is also related to how strong the block. I like though on both models the 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 ^^between th fast pacific flow, and the block, a southern slider isn't off the table. At this point in time though, gfs and euro are sniffing out an amp'd solution. That's more than we've even following since the son of sandy /no go snow even in Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 ^^between th fast pacific flow, and the block, a southern slider isn't off the table. At this point in time though, gfs and euro are sniffing out an amp'd solution. That's more than we've even following since the son of sandy /no go snow even in Philly. Yea, their is definitely a strong signal for a storm, be it snow or rain who knows. But i like that we have sime blocking in place and the 50/50 low, assuming the late weekend storm stregthens as progged. What i don't like is the cold air supply and the whole pacific west coast trof/ridge orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Yea, their is definitely a strong signal for a storm, be it snow or rain who knows. But i like that we have sime blocking in place and the 50/50 low, assuming the late weekend storm stregthens as progged. What i don't like is the cold air supply and the whole pacific west coast trof/ridge orientation. Well blue Line aside, a strengthening sub 990 low comin up the coast would make most people happy. If it can do it in October, it can do it mid December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Also, take a look at the first analog for the 8-14 day period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I think weenies(including me) are just snow starved and any map or model that shows a storm is going to be the model of choice. Hey Tombo, I totally agree with what you said on the GFS. If the Euro were to do that, then that would grab our attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Also, take a look at the first analog for the 8-14 day period !! Haha jk buddy. Didn't that that storm have a juiced up PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Also, take a look at the first analog for the 8-14 day period December 1992 noreaster made the list as well *gulp* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Also, take a look at the first analog for the 8-14 day period That's why these analog maps are so good. I was about to poo-poo the idea of a significant snowstorm around this time because the pattern does not look particularly conducive south of NYC (and I mean, it's not ideal), but it's interesting to see two decent PHL storms show up in the analog list. Good job posting it, Tom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I miss the tombo Euro pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The euro so far this run Might get the ball game going Major differences with a 50/50 low popping and it is not cutting off with the energy. Much like the GFS so far. lets see what the ends result is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 12z D7 GEFS mean. Half decent phl snow map. Just needs a better 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The 12/26-27/10 analogue has been showing up for a few days now. Me likey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 12z euro went to gfs idea no more cutter...hr 186 storm off sc coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 By hr 204 storm moves off nc coast ene ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 12z euro went to gfs idea no more cutter...hr 186 storm off sc coast Temps compared to GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 thanks, tombo. now it feels like winter again thanks to your pbp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I would have to think that Carolina low at 156 is an error. I suppose it could happen but I just do not buy into there being 2 separate systems near the Atlantic coast at that time frame. Either one or the other should be correct. More like would be the north system that has transferred to the coast for new England. If we loose that error future runs we should see a more west track of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Temps compared to GFS? their isnt any precip near us...but 850s were south of your area thivknesses around 540. hard to say how temps would react to precip falling.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 12z euro went to gfs idea no more cutter...hr 186 storm off sc coast !! I feel proud of myself for noticing that the 0z solution wAs a bit whacky* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Tom, how much more West will that Block get in your view? Isn't the -NAO favoring a coastal storm solution during the D7-8 time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Euro D7 map - Need a little more separation between storm 1 and 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Tom, how much more West will that Block get in your view? Isn't the -NAO favoring a coastal storm solution during the D7-8 time? read chubbs response... you need that dtorm at hr 162 to be further away it flattens the hgt lines and forces the storm under it...also drags the frontal boundry further east..i haven't looked at it fully at h5 im on my phone working lol...but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Euro ensemble mean up next should be interesting to see what it has. Just a slight change in the OP euro would bring it west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The extra system on the 17th likely won't be there. As a result the wave on the 18-19th should be further northwest. I could see a cutter into eastern KY then transfering to a secondary for the 18th-19th. This results in the best chance for snow across southern IN-OH, WV and then northwest of I-95. Saw this a lot back home. Many days to track this still at least we have something to talk about now. Again these my personal thoughts not NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Thanks Tom for run info. Its like the old days again. Glad we have something to track the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Euro ensembles going coastal hugger: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Euro ensembles going coastal hugger: What that looks to me is a 2ndry. Looks like a primary cuts north as you can see with the appendage to the west. Then you get a 2ndry coastal in that spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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