Mitchell Gaines Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Dec 15-20 our best chance is not saying much given the warmth of the past few weeks for snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Yea, this could be painful this week.. Kinda had a feeling the models were a little aggressive with the strength and retrogression of the east based NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 Adam, in about 7 days should we be seeing increase in wave 1 and wave 2 response attacking the vortex? From that paper i read that the best positioning is right around the date line for low pressures, along with the high in eastern europe. This map shows extreme low pressures in the north pacific and a weak high in eastern europe. For the wave map we do see a small uptick in both waves but its more pronounced in wave 1 vs wave 2, does that have something to do with the wave 1 and 2 warm and cool phases in the ALI and EEI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 From Steve @nynjpaweather: "This is text book model mayhem that will have many METS jumping back and forth until the models lock in" He forecasts a progessively colder and stormier month....but not necessarily snowier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I view Steve basically the same as JB/HM/DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I view Steve basically the same as JB/HM/DT. Agree. The only difference is the other three had credibility at some point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 So wait, the olr map tombo posted is showing a decent MjO wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I view Steve basically the same as JB/HM/DT. I presume you mean the other HM (not the board HM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 So wait, the olr map tombo posted is showing a decent MjO wave? Yea, but its doesn't look to get going till christmas or after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I view Steve basically the same as JB/HM/DT. you mean HM from accuweather i hope right? The HM from here is highly respected. I also highly respect DT as well. He rubs some the wrong way but i have no problem with that. In fact I highly respect all the mets on here, especially those from the national weather service who find the time to post their views on here. JB on the other hand, hmmmmm. Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 you mean HM from accuweather i hope right? The HM from here is highly respected. I also highly respect DT as well. He rubs some the wrong way but i have no problem with that. In fact I highly respect all the mets on here, especially those from the national weather service who find the time to post their views on here. JB on the other hand, hmmmmm. Hahaha You realize that JB is a marketing genius in that regard, by keeping his thoughts only in limited areas and not sharing them here. I mean, every winter its the same thing, another million posts about what JB thinks. Right or wrong, he knows how to make himself a valuable commodity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 you mean HM from accuweather i hope right? The HM from here is highly respected. I also highly respect DT as well. He rubs some the wrong way but i have no problem with that. In fact I highly respect all the mets on here, especially those from the national weather service who find the time to post their views on here. JB on the other hand, hmmmmm. Hahaha I agree with your views on DT, he knows his stuff, though he is a little harsh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 You realize that JB is a marketing genius in that regard, by keeping his thoughts only in limited areas and not sharing them here. I mean, every winter its the same thing, another million posts about what JB thinks. Right or wrong, he knows how to make himself a valuable commodity. hahaha yeah never thought of it that way before. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I agree with your views on DT, he knows his stuff, though he is a little harsh. don't be such a fooking mooron. (/sarcasm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Looks like the polar vortex is making an exit stage left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I presume you mean the other HM (not the board HM). That should have been obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 you mean HM from accuweather i hope right? The HM from here is highly respected. I also highly respect DT as well. He rubs some the wrong way but i have no problem with that. In fact I highly respect all the mets on here, especially those from the national weather service who find the time to post their views on here. JB on the other hand, hmmmmm. Hahaha See above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 From Steve @nynjpaweather: "This is text book model mayhem that will have many METS jumping back and forth until the models lock in" He forecasts a progessively colder and stormier month....but not necessarily snowier Stormier yes, colder maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Upper Midwest is getting pummeled, anyone see the models pushing that type of set up east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 Upper Midwest is getting pummeled, anyone see the models pushing that type of set up east? Need a stronger and further south -nao block, or get rid of that -pna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 NAO 7-10 day signal better on this mornings GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I agree with your views on DT, he knows his stuff, though he is a little harsh. I can regurgitate the European model too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 I can regurgitate the European model too +1...i can do the euro, we need you for the weeklies not the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 Things are starting to look at least a little better closer towards christmas. One of the analogs for todays 8-14 day outlook was dec 26 2010. Adding up the analog months phl recevied on avg 2.8 inches. You take the boxing day snow storm out and its down to 1.8 for the month. Point being some better analogs are starting to show up. Not saying we will end up getting some snow, but the analogs are improving along with the progged pattern in 8-14 days,. Only issue is its always been in the 11-15 day period it can't get any closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Meh, there was only that one period around mid-November where we bullish on something in the 11-15 day time frame. Once we saw that fail, it's always been a wait until Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I know its a ways off, but anything to look past this dismal pattern GFS has had a a couple consistent threats of the white stuff Dec. 18 and 23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 someone keeps posting these on twit, lot of white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 someone keeps posting these on twit, lot of white That product is a waste of computation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 someone keeps posting these on twit, lot of white Hmmmm. Wonder who that might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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