tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 You and me both. I don't know about your area but the CPC superens D+11 was pretty discouraging for ours. No snow on any of the 10 analogs. I used the analogs from 2 days ago, and the average snowfall off them for philly was 1.4 inches with a lot of those analog months a couple tenths or so of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 This paper is a good primer but there are a lot of not so clear cut scenarios and feedback processes (waves warm upper strat and that warming downwells...timing?). Hybrid placements occur usually and climatology of planetary waves, while subtle, does change from early to late winter. This paper suggests it's negligible, but it isn't. A North Pacific Low is correlated well to a wave 1 but so is an upwelling high over the North Atlantic (there are mountains in Greenland and land/sea/ice differentials here). In fact this was part of the reason 2009 was so intense. If the N PAC low is further to the NW with a ridge into the NE PAC, this promotes a weaker back and forth wave 1-2 thing...hey just like this year! HM, my question is, is their a stipulation to this? I mean is it that everytime you get a n pac low it starts the ball moving for the waves or does their have to be a timeline, say if its there for a week then it ignites the response? Also, what designates a warm enso from a cold? Say el nino, does it refer to where the warming is like east based or west based? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 Any good papers on what an ep flux. I looked up one and it was a lot of mind boggling calculations. Any clear cut explanations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Hour 276 of the GFS sure looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Hour 276 of the GFS sure looks interesting. thats the week we flip and start building the all fired up bastardi glacier and feed the local snow geese Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Any good papers on what an ep flux. I looked up one and it was a lot of mind boggling calculations. Any clear cut explanations? No. It has absolutely zero intuitive physical properties. Kinda like Q vectors. Just know that pointing upward and poleward is good for disrupting the polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 12z GFS in 10 day range has some encouraging features. One is the cold vortex that forms over Hudson's Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Come on baby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Can someone explain how to read the MJO forecast. Like What is the red green blue and yellow lines are. I know we want it in 1 7 and 8 but just want to know what is what on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 Can someone explain how to read the MJO forecast. Like What is the red green blue and yellow lines are. I know we want it in 1 7 and 8 but just want to know what is what on it. The red and blue represent the month. Like that one i believe red is november and blue is october. The numbers are the days...so 4 in blue is october 4th...23 in red is november 23rd. The big bold black dot is the current state of the mjo, this case right on the circle bordering phase 3...from that dot on is the projected forecast...and the little dots are the forecast day and location of the mjo....the spaghetti lines are the diff gefs member forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 The red and blue represent the month. Like that one i believe red is november and blue is october. The numbers are the days...so 4 in blue is october 4th...23 in red is november 23rd. The big bold black dot is the current state of the mjo, this case right on the circle bordering phase 3...from that dot on is the projected forecast...and the little dots are the forecast day and location of the mjo....the spaghetti lines are the diff gefs member forecasts However if the red line stays within the black circle, it's no good either right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 However if the red line stays within the black circle, it's no good either right? The black circle is called the circle of death, basically their is weak convection in the tropics. When in the circle of death the mjo, which is used to help steer patterns doesn't. Which is hurting us now. The mjo is shot so its all these teleconnections fighting each other, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 I really like that dec 15-20 period esp if the nao is west based. The euro way out on day 10 looks pretty nice. Blocky with a 50/50 low and a storm gathering in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 Adam excels at the mjo, i may be wrong in my explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Adam excels at the mjo, i may be wrong in my explanation. MJO is easier to understand than mountain torque and stratospheric warming, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Okie dokie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 MJO is easier to understand than mountain torque and stratospheric warming, I have a basic knowledge of the mtn torque, but the stratospheric warming is rough lol in reading this journal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 Okie dokie verbatim thats a rain event for us...sne get a snowstorm...the low tracks basically right over our area...hits the block and moves west to east. But the one after that looks good to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 verbatim thats a rain event for us...sne get a snowstorm...the low tracks basically right over our area...hits the block and moves west to east. But the one after that looks good to my eyes. Yeah its the follwoing wave that creates the 276 hr storm on the GFS. Euro has same players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 as shown by the other mjo forecasts, the roundy mjo has stronger convection firing the week before christmas in phase 7-8. Though, i still don't see much -olr and the +olr is just starting to fire around christmas time. So i would take a guess in reality the stronger convection would be post christmas time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 The red and blue represent the month. Like that one i believe red is november and blue is october. The numbers are the days...so 4 in blue is october 4th...23 in red is november 23rd. The big bold black dot is the current state of the mjo, this case right on the circle bordering phase 3...from that dot on is the projected forecast...and the little dots are the forecast day and location of the mjo....the spaghetti lines are the diff gefs member forecasts Thanks Tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 The storm will be on the 19th as that is the day I fly home for winter leave . Best chance for anything I've seen in a while, still day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 The storm will be on the 19th as that is the day I fly home for winter leave . Best chance for anything I've seen in a while, still day 10. That's fine with me, I fly home on the 17th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 adam, weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 18th-19th definitely looks like the time period to watch at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 adam, weeklies? Came out yesterday. A window for some cold and snow before Christmas is present. However on what limited access I have to the weeklies a mean SE ridge forms after Christmas, not the best. The weeklies have been highly variable though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Not really excited about any substantive threats before Christmas. Pattern looks better in the Midwest or Western Lakes but between SE ridging and the trough axis being farther west it doesn't look overly optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Weeks 3 and 4 have been garbage lately in the weeklies. Tombo has the right idea above on the MJO evolution. Look for some chances after Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Bad NAO trends on last nights GFS/Euro modeling eliminating any 10 day threats. PV consolidation in Siberia also in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 Bad NAO trends on last nights GFS/Euro modeling eliminating any 10 day threats. PV consolidation in Siberia also in the cards. Yea, the dec 15-20 period has a shot only if the nao trends in a favorable way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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