tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 Adam, im hearing the euro ens are building in a nice west based -nao like the weeklies. Does it look decent down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The euro ensembles have a -NAO, but you probably still want it stronger and farther southwest. Even I'm not entirely sure about it up this way. The Pacific is king right now and with such a -PNA..it's making it hard to bring colder air firmly entrenched over the east. That's where the -NAO comes in, but you need a pretty strong -NAO or one heck of a Aleutian ridge that is covering part of AK to help out and bring the cold southeast. It may work out as modeled to help bring something your way as the NAO is rather nice looking on the ensembles...but how strong will it end up being? I'd like to see this continue on the models for a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 The euro ensembles have a -NAO, but you probably still want it stronger and farther southwest. Even I'm not entirely sure about it up this way. The Pacific is king right now and with such a -PNA..it's making it hard to bring colder air firmly entrenched over the east. That's where the -NAO comes in, but you need a pretty strong -NAO or one heck of a Aleutian ridge that is covering part of AK to help out and bring the cold southeast. It may work out as modeled to help bring something your way as the NAO is rather nice looking on the ensembles...but how strong will it end up being? I'd like to see this continue on the models for a couple of days. Thanks Scott, i think most of us already kicked the football and is about half way to the uprights for december. The question is, will we get a sudden wind gust to push it away from it. Or will it doink the post and still go through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Dr Joe D with WB says one picture says it all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Dr Joe D with WB says one picture says it all.... Actually, a number and a word: "384 GEFS" To its credit, the Euro agrees pretty well at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Dr Joe D with WB says one picture says it all.... That map looks OK for N US but its not going to get us a white Xmas - too much Pacific influence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2012 Author Share Posted December 6, 2012 Actually, a number and a word: "384 GEFS" To its credit, the Euro agrees pretty well at that range. The pacific on that image is vomit worthy. It looks like it has another goa low on that where the lowest hgts are. Also, that's not a big coastal storm pattern their. Looks more like an overunning situation or cutters that redevelop off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 To me that has a very interesting look....I would expect some winter events...not snow for all but quite different from what we saw last winter. If you like winter weather I like how this is evolving....the new zones may get quite the workout from about the 17th right into January. The pacific on that image is vomit worthy. It looks like it has another goa low on that where the lowest hgts are. Also, that's not a big coastal storm pattern their. Looks more like an overunning situation or cutters that redevelop off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2012 Author Share Posted December 6, 2012 To me that has a very interesting look....I would expect some winter events...not snow for all but quite different from what we saw last winter. If you like winter weather I like how this is evolving....the new zones may get quite the workout from about the 17th right into January. Yea that definitely would be a more wintry look compared to the last several days of ens runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I'd like to see the poconos cash in at least... Trying to get some fresh powder up there to get my snowboard out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2012 Author Share Posted December 6, 2012 based off the cpc's 8-14 day out look analogs. I used the months that are used for the analog dates. I came up with an average of 1.43 inches of snow for the month. 2 months came in with 0 snowfall for phl while the highest came in at just over 5 inches. Majority of them featured an inch or less of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I'd like to see the poconos cash in at least... Trying to get some fresh powder up there to get my snowboard out. +1 but skis only for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Pretty much a torch in the 8-10 day average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 That is an ugly map, dr no going in the wrong direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Unfortuneately that Pacific ridge is very stable in current 10-15 day modeling outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 So much cold air in O Canada on the model runs. Models hinting for some maybe week of the 17th for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 It's "the pot of gold always at the end of the rainbow" syndrome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 It's "the pot of gold always at the end of the rainbow" syndrome. Is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Latest Headline from JB "As Fired Up as 2010 with what is coming" "quite frankly, this is about as good as you can have it for threats of snow and cold for the nation mid Dec to mid Jan! Its what I have been pointing to and to be blunt ITS COLDER AND SNOWIER than I have now, which has always maintained it would be a bit colder and snowier. In fact this is more like the MEI analog flip blend which would mean a severe period is on the table ( I showed that back on March, but have bit more restrained" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Latest Headline from JB "As Fired Up as 2010 with what is coming" "quite frankly, this is about as good as you can have it for threats of snow and cold for the nation mid Dec to mid Jan! Its what I have been pointing to and to be blunt ITS COLDER AND SNOWIER than I have now, which has always maintained it would be a bit colder and snowier. In fact this is more like the MEI analog flip blend which would mean a severe period is on the table ( I showed that back on March, but have bit more restrained" The sharks that comment on WB are going to want his head on a stick if he busts on this. That's a tough crowd -- it's only weather... I do wonder myself why he's swinging for the home run with such lousy pitches being thrown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 The sharks that comment on WB are going to want his head on a stick if he busts on this. That's a tough crowd -- it's only weather... I do wonder myself why he's swinging for the home run with such lousy pitches being thrown. Did you miss his Fab Feb tirade, amongst all the other stuff he touted last winter? If that debacle couldn't strike him down, nothing will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Did you miss his Fab Feb tirade, amongst all the other stuff he touted last winter? If that debacle couldn't strike him down, nothing will. What doesn't kill him only makes his predicitons more insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Did you miss his Fab Feb tirade, amongst all the other stuff he touted last winter? If that debacle couldn't strike him down, nothing will. The problem is, once in a while he is right and that is all people remember. When you swing for the fences all the time you strikeout 180 times per year, but you do hit the occasional huge home run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2012 Author Share Posted December 6, 2012 The problem is, once in a while he is right and that is all people remember. When you swing for the fences all the time you strikeout 180 times per year, but you do hit the occasional huge home run. sounds like ryan howard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Can we PLEASE keep the JB/HM/DT garbage in one separate thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Much better... but still not the most ideal. No big coastal storms in this pattern, but could lead to SWFE/gradient type storms and every 3-5 days. With an active SJT, SWFE events can still produce decent amounts of snow... so the bottom line is a -PNA isn't the kiss of death necessarily. And this, of course, would be post mid-month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I don't mean to scare anyone even more than I have already; but, if the pattern does something like what the 18z GFS is doing with a full blown polar vortex retrograde mid-late December....it is going to torch big time. The way the 18z GFS retrogrades the vortex reminds me of last year when we had a brief window in January for a pattern shift but the vortex went hurling back to Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2012 Author Share Posted December 6, 2012 I don't mean to scare anyone even more than I have already; but, if the pattern does something like what the 18z GFS is doing with a full blown polar vortex retrograde mid-late December....it is going to torch big time. The way the 18z GFS retrogrades the vortex reminds me of last year when we had a brief window in January for a pattern shift but the vortex went hurling back to Alaska. We all hope that doesn't happen, but you can't do anything about it. Is the euro showing this to? Would a jump start in the mjo help steer this in a different direction? It looks like on the roundy and other mjo stuff that nearing christmas week the mjo should get a boost into phase 1. When you mean retrograde are saying how the gfs takes it from central canada and displaces it on the other side of globe allowing canada to warm up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I don't mean to scare anyone even more than I have already; but, if the pattern does something like what the 18z GFS is doing with a full blown polar vortex retrograde mid-late December....it is going to torch big time. The way the 18z GFS retrogrades the vortex reminds me of last year when we had a brief window in January for a pattern shift but the vortex went hurling back to Alaska. Verbatim, yes. But I am certainly not placing any bets on the 18z GFS operational. Especially since multiple model ensembles are telling a different story. Including the ECM/EPS ENS I posted above.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I don't mean to scare anyone even more than I have already; but, if the pattern does something like what the 18z GFS is doing with a full blown polar vortex retrograde mid-late December....it is going to torch big time. The way the 18z GFS retrogrades the vortex reminds me of last year when we had a brief window in January for a pattern shift but the vortex went hurling back to Alaska. Even in the best case scenario, there's going to be another warmup when the SE ridge somewhat bridges with that NAO ridge while the PV is retrograding. But hopefully we can get enough amplification of the Aleutian Ridge to keep a good cold air source and that PV doesn't go all the way back to Alaska. Also the OP runs are still showing that west-based block. I'm somewhat hopeful about a decent NAO in the 2nd half of the month, but still quite skeptical. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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