tombo82685 Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 Pretty confident about Halloween week averaging cooler than normal around us. A couple of players as you have stated are coming into place. First full week of November EC's MJO outlook is better for sustained cold. GFS doesn't look as promising rolling it forward and we look like we are entering a down cycle to the torquing for now. yea the week of halloween looks pretty chilly which corresponds with the mjo phase. Question is where does it head after phase 2? COD or phase 3 would certainly argue which is supported by the mtn torque of warmer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 NAEFS has turned us cooler than normal. Nuff said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 NAEFS has turned us cooler than normal. Nuff said. Yeah they've been dead on w/ the warmth over the past 12-18 months. Looks like a virtual lock we see a pretty nice cold outbreak the last few days of Oct into early Nov w/ the MJO forcing into phase 2 and extreme high latitude blocking. Will be interesting to see what happens once into November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Yeah they've been dead on w/ the warmth over the past 12-18 months. Looks like a virtual lock we see a pretty nice cold outbreak the last few days of Oct into early Nov w/ the MJO forcing into phase 2 and extreme high latitude blocking. Will be interesting to see what happens once into November. They were pretty good the previous previous winter with the cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I believe if november can turn out below average that would be a much better sign for us than a near to slightly above october, especially how november has warmed over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 So...anything on the horizon? On to the next event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Nope. Just cool weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Nope. Just cool weather. EURo/GFS show a potential low day 6-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Next, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 EURo/GFS show a potential low day 6-7 Most of the ENS members are OTS. I guess it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Still no signs of the dreaded Alaskan PV of doom showing up. Always a good sign. Looks like the NAO in the western region goes neutral to slightly pos for a bit though. Not to enthused for the upcoming threat. Ridging looks solid, but the trough stays fairly progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Saturday through Wednesday morning looks quite chilly on both the GFS and Euro. The freezing line more or less looks to be above my house pretty much the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 here we go Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Snow on the Jersey shore, NYC next week? its on the table Check outhttp://weatherbell.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 ugh. I said the same thing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 12z GGEM really amplifies the southern shortwave shows a big storm @144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Wow, lots of QPF, looks overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Wow, lots of QPF, looks overdone Link? On my iPad and don't have mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 144. 12z euro Q Next frame: Boundry is torched along I-95, so don't get your hopes up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Uh ohh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Interior with a hit on the Euro. GFS has a New England special. NBC News already running with headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Well that can't be good for coastal sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Interior with a hit on the Euro. GFS has a New England special. NBC News already running with headlines. I can only imagine the MSM bandwagon that would ensue for the potential disturbance next week. Smh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 It will be better if it were snow than another big rainmaker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Interior with a hit on the Euro. GFS has a New England special. NBC News already running with headlines. u r kidding, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 u r kidding, correct? nope...I think this was written after the 12z GFS, but before the Euro... http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/01/14858924-noreaster-possible-along-east-coast-next-week-but-not-as-severe-as-sandy?lite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 nope...I think this was written after the 12z GFS, but before the Euro... http://usnews.nbcnew...e-as-sandy?lite The headline made me chuckle a little "Nor'easter possible along East Coast next week, but not as severe as Sandy"....yeah no kidding but it won't take much in the hardest hit areas to hinder recovery efforts. I guess we will see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 It looks like their could be a big dump of cold air in about a week or so for the US. Pretty strong mtn torque event occurring right now. Wild card is if the mjo can swing out of the COD into phase 8, that would teleconnect to a colder east coast. Though i think phase 6/7 entrance makes sense, then it goes into phase 8. Which would correlate to a dump into north central plains/rockies region then comes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 on the upcoming potential noreaster, i dont like how flat the ridge out west is. Just doesnt argue for a huge amplifying trof that develops a major storm and sends it up the east coast. I think a storm develops but i dont see it coming up the whole coast, maybe a southern slider out or coming up to delmarva. Especially, with a kicker, the storm dropping south into the pac nw argues for the ridge to progressively move east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 It looks like their could be a big dump of cold air in about a week or so for the US. Pretty strong mtn torque event occurring right now. Wild card is if the mjo can swing out of the COD into phase 8, that would teleconnect to a colder east coast. Though i think phase 6/7 entrance makes sense, then it goes into phase 8. Which would correlate to a dump into north central plains/rockies region then comes east. The weird thing is that the 6-10 and 8-12 day analogs are above normal. Hope the cold pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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