dssbss Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 bummer...and thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Hopefully not another year where we watch the calendar pages flip as it looks like the next month is going to rock, and then the next thing you know it's April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I was thinking the same thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Hopefully not another year where we watch the calendar pages flip as it looks like the next month is going to rock, and then the next thing you know it's April... This year has a lot more going for it than last year. I think most of the medium and long range guys (including me) were pretty well set on last year being awful by about November. There were no glimmers. There's plenty of good things going on this year, as HM and I have been talking about all day. Just not in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Hello ams, gotta question for you or HM. If this next possible change to a colder pattern takes place after christmas and the stratosphere warms with the pv displaced, is there anyways to tell if the cold air will come to our side of the pond or oveseas? Last yr, when the pv got disturbed, the cold air went overseas. Maybe the pattern is overall different than last yrs, but for at least the next few weeks, it will be warm, especially where i live around memphis, tn. Thanks kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Hello ams, gotta question for you or HM. If this next possible change to a colder pattern takes place after christmas and the stratosphere warms with the pv displaced, is there anyways to tell if the cold air will come to our side of the pond or oveseas? Last yr, when the pv got disturbed, the cold air went overseas. Maybe the pattern is overall different than last yrs, but for at least the next few weeks, it will be warm, especially where i live around memphis, tn. Thanks kevin Not this far out. Though I would argue with MJO full orbits more likely in the next sustained tropical push, everyone should get their fair share around the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 Maybe im being stubborn or just a weenie but i still think we have a shot of some wintry precip in the dec 10-20 period, though i would favor days 15-20. It seems like in that time period their will be an uptick in storms coming out of the west and atleast some cold air nearby. If we can time one with the cold air we could get something. Granted i definitely don't see a snow storm, but maybe a storm with a front end thump or mix that goes to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ago4snow Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 A question concerning the teleconnections often discussed by the mets here. I have always assumed that many of the most important teleconnections, such as the AO, NAO, PNA and AAO, are included within the algorithms that run on such models as the ECMWF or the GFS. When I look out for a general idea of how the atmosphere will look or trend in the next ten days or so, I assume that this important info is already incorporated into that model forecast. So my basic question is whether a more detailed knowledge of individual indices helps to understand whether the models are handling the atmosphere properly, essential to a long range forecast or a way to speculate on a weather trend beyond the capabilities of these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 Finally, roundy has updated. Still has that stronger convection (relatively speaking) so hopefully this is a jump start to the mjo. Looks like phase 5 start around dec 10, then works its way toward phase 7/8 around christmas or just after? It still has rather low -OLR which is disheartening, but at least its a start in jumping it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 A question concerning the teleconnections often discussed by the mets here. I have always assumed that many of the most important teleconnections, such as the AO, NAO, PNA and AAO, are included within the algorithms that run on such models as the ECMWF or the GFS. When I look out for a general idea of how the atmosphere will look or trend in the next ten days or so, I assume that this important info is already incorporated into that model forecast. So my basic question is whether a more detailed knowledge of individual indices helps to understand whether the models are handling the atmosphere properly, essential to a long range forecast or a way to speculate on a weather trend beyond the capabilities of these models. What do you mean "included within the algorithms of that run"? If you are asking whether there is special, set programming specifically for the teleconectors, the answer is no. Models are pretty much pure physics (or physics approximations) and the indices are generated from the model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 maybe its me, but that doesn't look to horrible on the 0z euro ens in the extended range. Granted the se ridge is still there, but that is being beaten down to some degree by that 50/50 lobe from the east based -nao. Still don't like the mean trof being centered over the rockies, that screams cutter to me. One positive note, is at least their is cold air around and if you can get a sneaky high timed with a s/w could lead to something. Its better than last yr where their wasn't any cold air to be find in the lower 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 maybe its me, but that doesn't look to horrible on the 0z euro ens in the extended range. Granted the se ridge is still there, but that is being beaten down to some degree by that 50/50 lobe from the east based -nao. Still don't like the mean trof being centered over the rockies, that screams cutter to me. One positive note, is at least their is cold air around and if you can get a sneaky high timed with a s/w could lead to something. Its better than last yr where their wasn't any cold air to be find in the lower 48. mehh..... Thats a " MAYBE NE can cash in on that"....even if there was a SWFE, nothing to keep the cold air in down about our parts. Screaming, active northern jet, there's sure to be more kicker waves than HP's.... I'm not impressed. Maybe in January with a colder air mass to the North (not out towards BC, Manitoba, NW territrories).... Never say never though, but its def thread the needle type scenario down our parts. Our window could come in the form of an event that rides the coat tail of a cutter. The problem is,imho, beteen the PV in Alsaka, and the subsequent EPAC ridge, the PAC jet is screaming into canda witht he northern jet. SO any attempts of the NAO to retrograde west from iceland, has been beaten down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 maybe its me, but that doesn't look to horrible on the 0z euro ens in the extended range. Granted the se ridge is still there, but that is being beaten down to some degree by that 50/50 lobe from the east based -nao. Still don't like the mean trof being centered over the rockies, that screams cutter to me. One positive note, is at least their is cold air around and if you can get a sneaky high timed with a s/w could lead to something. Its better than last yr where their wasn't any cold air to be find in the lower 48. my rookie eyes sees this also. hopefully this is the start of a trend towards colder times ahead for the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 mehh..... Thats a " MAYBE NE can cash in on that"....even if there was a SWFE, nothing to keep the cold air in down about our parts. Screaming, active northern jet, there's sure to be more kicker waves than HP's.... I'm not impressed. Maybe in January with a colder air mass to the North (not out towards BC, Manitoba, NW territrories).... Never say never though, but its def thread the needle type scenario down our parts. Our window could come in the form of an event that rides the coat tail of a cutter. The problem is,imho, beteen the PV in Alsaka, and the subsequent EPAC ridge, the PAC jet is screaming into canda witht he northern jet. SO any attempts of the NAO to retrograde west from iceland, has been beaten down. technically when you have a swfe its the antecedent airmass that does it cause the high is moving out, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 FWIW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I saw these images too... and combined with the Euro weeklies it matches up well, but this is also assuming the entrenched -NAO is legit. ECM weeklies have been steadily insistent on this notion for the 18th-24th and beyond. Not to sound like a downer here, but I keep hearing about the SSW, MJO etc... but what about SOI values? Such a big deal was made last year about the southern oscillation index... haven't heard too much about this in discussions this year. Currently positive 3+ and has been that way for quite some time. Understandably we would like to see that severely negative, but what would aid in it's sudden drop? Does this have a direct correlation to all stratospheric warming factors and then everything else like the SOI and MJO fall into place kind of thing? As in one domino falls, they all do presumably? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 Adam is this a phase 5 on the roundy with the deeper convection around dec 8th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 It's really weak. I wouldn't start getting excited about another MJO wave until you start getting the corresponding subsidence over the IO around the 20th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 It's really weak. I wouldn't start getting excited about another MJO wave until you start getting the corresponding subsidence over the IO around the 20th or so. How do you determine the subsidence over IO. Obviously its sinking air for subsidence, but what does that look like? Is it the weaker convection, and +olr in the dec 20 to dec 28 range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 How do you determine the subsidence over IO. Obviously its sinking air for subsidence, but what does that look like? Thick, dashed red lines and yellow +OLR anomalies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 Thick, dashed red lines and yellow +OLR anomalies Lol, yea i edited it and thought thats what it was. so when you have those to together thats a sign that convection could fire? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Lol, yea i edited it and thought thats what it was. so when you have those to together thats a sign that convection could fire? That's a sign that the MJO signal is becoming more robust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 That's a sign that the MJO signal is becoming more robust it makes sense looking at that graph. Whenever their is the dashed lines and the +olr it is followed by deeper convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Couple thoughts from Steve D (NJ PA Wx) and JB Steve D says he is hearing of this "ridiculous nonsense about winter cancel and cold not coming" says the change is clearly happening and cold is coming by late next week (15th or so). JB of course agrees and is talking of a very cold and stormy holiday period....he has even started the famed "Cahirs Connection"....can the elusive "vodka cold" be far behind??? - still has his over 50% of the nation with a White Christmas also..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Couple thoughts from Steve D (NJ PA Wx) and JB Steve D says he is hearing of this "ridiculous nonsense about winter cancel and cold not coming" says the change is clearly happening and cold is coming by late next week (15th or so). JB of course agrees and is talking of a very cold and stormy holiday period....he has even started the famed "Cahirs Connection"....can the elusive "vodka cold" be far behind??? - still has his over 50% of the nation with a White Christmas also..... The change is certainly happening... to a La Niña-pattern that doesn't favor the Mid Atlantic. Can we get a fluke changeover? Surely... but the departures will be positive and the legit snowfall will miss well N/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 The change is certainly happening... to a La Niña-pattern that doesn't favor the Mid Atlantic. Can we get a fluke changeover? Surely... but the departures will be positive and the legit snowfall will miss well N/W. HM or adam from the link adam gave me this morning, which graph is the most important and how do i read it? Just going to take a stab at it. Im assuming the first 2 graphs are temperature maps at 10hpa and 30hpa on the affects of wave 1 and wave 2. And you would want the warming to be around 30 kelvin on each graph to be a ssw? The last 3 i have no clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The change is certainly happening... to a La Niña-pattern that doesn't favor the Mid Atlantic. Can we get a fluke changeover? Surely... but the departures will be positive and the legit snowfall will miss well N/W. Are you referring to the near-term or to this coming winter in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 Are you referring to the near-term or to this coming winter in general? just december from what he was saying yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 from that tweet place, pending / possible vodka chill in some locations west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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