phlwx Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 still way out in time but what the euro shows at h5 does not support an east coast storm...no -nao or pna ridge...that to me would look more like an inland runner. their is no feature to lock in a high for coastal sections. doesn't help that the high in Canada scoots quickly east. Still way out obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 doesn't help that the high in Canada scoots quickly east. Still way out obviously. Yea, no locking feature but the cold would be there to start. Actually looking at it closer that run may actually support a miss. Thats a pretty progressive flow around the time frame, the next disturbance is right on its heels. I don't see how that wraps up and climbs the coast with that. That would be an interesting scenario, hr 234 you can see the h5 low is racing in towards the storm to slow it and cut it off. I think all you can take from this is around the 8th-10th or so things may start looking good for some cold and possible wintry events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Surprised the Euro shows that 10 day philly snowstorm two runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 From our HM: "Quick thoughts because I have to run. Watch the weekend system trend perhaps cooler in the coming days while the day 10 system trends more suppressed, assuming the big players are being modeled correctly. Agree with tip about the heather signal here and potential this period holds between Dec 7-12. The Alaskan Low / RNA is very concerning down the road. Split vortex in strat has commenced and this brief -NAO period is being allowed because of it. I agree with the EURO to break it down quickly and not allow for a west based -NAO given the prediction of the strat tornado moving back toward Greenland. " He's not too enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 From our HM: "Quick thoughts because I have to run. Watch the weekend system trend perhaps cooler in the coming days while the day 10 system trends more suppressed, assuming the big players are being modeled correctly. Agree with tip about the heather signal here and potential this period holds between Dec 7-12. The Alaskan Low / RNA is very concerning down the road. Split vortex in strat has commenced and this brief -NAO period is being allowed because of it. I agree with the EURO to break it down quickly and not allow for a west based -NAO given the prediction of the strat tornado moving back toward Greenland. " He's not too enthused. hm also frst thought it would be cold to begin december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 hm also frst thought it would be cold to begin december Well it seems a lot of people were wrong about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Well it seems a lot of people were wrong about that. Yes, it seems like this might be a warm then cold type that goes back and forth with temps ending out near average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 still way out in time but what the euro shows at h5 does not support an east coast storm...no -nao or pna ridge...that to me would look more like an inland runner. their is no feature to lock in a high for coastal sections. There is a PNA ridge but it's pretty flat. Wouldn't be surprised if the storm turns out flat given the lack of separation between the Dec 8-9 wave and this one. Also the progressive nature of the pattern in general/ridge out west being flat. But it does seem a few transient features are trying to align nicely for that time period. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 There is a PNA ridge but it's pretty flat. Wouldn't be surprised if the storm turns out flat given the lack of separation between the Dec 8-9 wave and this one. Also the progressive nature of the pattern in general/ridge out west being flat. But it does seem a few transient features are trying to align nicely for that time period. We'll see. yea i posted right afterwards once i got off my crappy phone pics. It looks like a surpressed situation. But if you were to get more separation and amplification that would go inland. Still holds some potential but has a fine line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Euro replaces snow threat with a more amplified 81 runner at day 8. It's rain ending as snow in the Poconos, rain for the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Do you think the euro will continue it's westward trend with the storm? I mean there is no 50/50 low, no -NAO, upper trough goes negative too soon, and there is no west coast ridge.. Maybe the 0z gfs (which took the storm into the ohio valley) is the better one this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Do you think the euro will continue it's westward trend with the storm? I mean there is no 50/50 low, no -NAO, upper trough goes negative too soon, and there is no west coast ridge.. Maybe the 0z gfs (which took the storm into the ohio valley) is the better one this time Lol, you've probably answered your own question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 The fun of 8 day model watching....this will trend back to the coast.....then up into the OH valley before the traditional 2 day before GFS suppressed solution running out to sea off NC. All options remain on the table. I will be gassing up the blower this week for the 2nd half of December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 THe EURO didn't separate the cold front and following shortwave like the 2 previous runs. We would need a trough/storm to lay down some cold air before the main s/w or theres not a chance for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 the dec 10th storm is an inland runner right over us. no one in the state even gets snow from it. Just not much in the way of cold air before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 hm also frst thought it would be cold to begin december Well I think this broad brush is a little unfair. I thought I was objective enough and made it clear it was about new England...no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Well I think this broad brush is a little unfair. I thought I was objective enough and made it clear it was about new England...no? I meant about the cold start to december, however as Ray said most mets were wrong on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 Well I think this broad brush is a little unfair. I thought I was objective enough and made it clear it was about new England...no? thats one thing that i have noticed alot and is pretty upsetting is how people call out other people for laying out their thoughts. easternsnowman has no right to challenge anyone. i dont see him throwing out ideas yet he has the audacity to call out someone else...people wonder why more mets dont post here well he is the exact reason why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 thats one thing that i have noticed alot and is pretty upsetting is how people call out other people for laying out their thoughts. easternsnowman has no right to challenge anyone. i dont see him throwing out ideas yet he has the audacity to call out someone else...people wonder why more mets dont post here well he is the exact reason why. You are very right, for the most part our sub-forum is doing good for that reason, with a little here's or theres otherwise we do fine. But if these little heres or theres go away a lot more, then as you said we would get many more pro-mets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 thats one thing that i have noticed alot and is pretty upsetting is how people call out other people for laying out their thoughts. easternsnowman has no right to challenge anyone. i dont see him throwing out ideas yet he has the audacity to call out someone else...people wonder why more mets dont post here well he is the exact reason why. Well it's okay. He or she has every right to call out because this is a public forum. I just thought I took a more objective approach and aimed cold and snow thoughts at new England more than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 You are very right, for the most part our sub-forum is doing good for that reason, with a little here's or theres otherwise we do fine. But if these little heres or theres go away a lot more, then as you said we would get many more pro-mets here. i dont just mean here its all over the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 thats one thing that i have noticed alot and is pretty upsetting is how people call out other people for laying out their thoughts. easternsnowman has no right to challenge anyone. i dont see him throwing out ideas yet he has the audacity to call out someone else...people wonder why more mets dont post here well he is the exact reason why. I don't claim to be a met and I see you here complaining about various things as well as being very negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 thats one thing that i have noticed alot and is pretty upsetting is how people call out other people for laying out their thoughts. easternsnowman has no right to challenge anyone. i dont see him throwing out ideas yet he has the audacity to call out someone else...people wonder why more mets dont post here well he is the exact reason why. Exactly, he's 5 posted for a reason, and seems to want to crap up every single thread he posts in. Adds nothing whatsoever to this board, and tries to call out Wes, one of the best mets on this board. Weenies like him are the reason why Wes doesn't even post in the NYC thread, and I'll be damned if he's going to drive good mets away from our subforum. Rant over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 I don't claim to be a met and I see you here complaining about various things as well as being very negative. When im negative or positive i always show reasoning behind somethin., not your posts which call someone out but provide no factual evidence on why you think they are wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 Well it's okay. He or she has every right to call out because this is a public forum. I just thought I took a more objective approach and aimed cold and snow thoughts at new England more than here. i just think if you are going to challenge someone or disagree back it up with reasoning. Also, if he was that intuned with things he would of known you clearly stated new eng had the best shot for wintry weather not down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Well it's okay. He or she has every right to call out because this is a public forum. I just thought I took a more objective approach and aimed cold and snow thoughts at new England more than here. Hey, no need to explain yourself. You're one of, if not thee most respected red taggers in here. I consider it' a privilege to be able to communicate with red taggers such as yourself. No ones perfect, especially with the weather. Keep up the solid work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 the dec 10th storm is an inland runner right over us. no one in the state even gets snow from it. Just not much in the way of cold air before the storm. Not surprising.. There is another wave behind it. At minimum should be a more active pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 When im negative or positive i always show reasoning behind somethin., not your posts which call someone out but provide no factual evidence on why you think they are wrong I like hm and have given him credit just that someone said he was'nt enthused about the pattern coming up later in the month. My point was he wa wrong as were many about the beginning of the month so no one is perfect. I did'nt mean to tear him down he is one of the best and nobody is perfest, besides this weather is hard to predict especially this autumn and winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Geez, keep the banter in the banter thread and let the long range guys do their thing. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 Way out in time, but i like the prospects of something wintry in the dec 10-20 time period. Models are showing the signs of a -nao popping with neutral to slightly positive pna developing. Before that, their will be cutters and inland runners that go over us. Everytime one of those cutters occurs it brings the colder air and boundary closer to the eastern sea board and helps with the development in the -nao. Below is day 10 of the euro ens. You can see on the day ten h5 map their is a east based -nao and a neutral to slightly positive pna their. Good thing shown here are the models continue to weaken and move the GOA low out of the picture. One thing i see that does need some work is the positioning of the ridge out west. Its off the west coast. Would like to have the mean axis over the boise area for increased chances of a coastal. With the mean trof that far west it increases the chances of a cutter. Though, with that east based -nao it may be a case where it cuts than redevelops somewhere off nj. The gefs are in pretty decent agreement with 12z euro at day 10. You can see the mean trof is located in the center of the country, with a neutral pna, and -nao. In a pattern shown here on the gefs would favor a low going inland than redevelops on the coast. You can see on both the euro and gefs that lobed out feature north of maine which is almost acting as a 50/50 low preventing anything from going way to the north. The gfs has backed off on the extensive pos pna that i was posting about yesterday. The teleconnections just don't support a huge ridge or trof like features over the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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