am19psu Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Stat guidance is showing blah MJO through Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 Stat guidance is showing blah MJO through Christmas. question, during neutral enso years is it common for the mjo to hang around the COD majority of the time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 29, 2012 Author Share Posted November 29, 2012 ouch, you wern't kidding Adam. weak forcing all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Just watch JBs morning video - he says relax and "stop this NAO focus" "Too many folks are focusing on indices that mean different things during transitional periods. He says to watch that tremendous cold air in NW Canada "has not been there at this time in near 10 years" He says a little hint as to what is coming is on the Euro day 10. I agree with Tom - this will NOT be a warm winter. I think the warmth will not be as great in December and will balance off with a cold Christmas holiday period and we end near normal in December with above normal snowfall. This has been a very cool run here in the last 6 months with 4 of those 6 months averaging below normal here in NW Chesco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 question, during neutral enso years is it common for the mjo to hang around the COD majority of the time? Great question. I don't know the answer. My guess would have been it's more likely to make full orbits rather than be biased in certain octents, but I haven't been doing this long enough to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 i'm pretty sure the 1st half of december is baked..(pun intended) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I would rather the cold come in January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 wxwatcher91: 12z GEFS out to week 2 have some strong similarities to Dec 2007, with a trough in the west, flat ridge in the E Pac, and the PV displaced into eastern Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 ^^^^ ewwww Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 ^^^^ ewwww that december wasnt actually bad. It was a normal december for philly. They had just shy of 3 inches of snow and monthly temp avg of +.2... Dt actually thinks differently on the 12z gefs. "'12Z gefs day 10 ...180 points differnt... RIDGE in east Pacific NAO moving to negative... MUCH colder over all pattern even shows HINTS of a possible l east coast winter storm DEC 15-17" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 for those who like dt or not, his views *** ALERT *** PATTERN CHANGE LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS MODELS MOVE INTO STRONG AGREEMENT .... WINTER IS COMING... more shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 How can there be such a difference of opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 How can there be such a difference of opinion All mets have different opinions of what different signals and indices to use when making a medium/long range forecast in addition to weighting each of them. As it is, there are many conflicting signals battling for dominance of the North American weather pattern. Any one of these can take over at some point during the winter (like how we are seeing the Gulf of Alaska trough causing a torch in the US in early December). It's all a matter of whether or not your forecast is influenced by the signals that show more cold or those that show more warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 All mets have different opinions of what different signals and indices to use when making a medium/long range forecast in addition to weighting each of them. As it is, there are many conflicting signals battling for dominance of the North American weather pattern. Any one of these can take over at some point during the winter (like how we are seeing the Gulf of Alaska trough causing a torch in the US in early December). It's all a matter of whether or not your forecast is influenced by the signals that show more cold or those that show more warmth. and with basically a stalemate of an MJO and negative mtn torque it enhances the conflicting signals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Does a ridge centered that far off the west coast count as a pna? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 Does a ridge centered that far off the west coast count as a pna? im not sure if thats a true pos pna looks more weekly pos to neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 and with basically a stalemate of an MJO and negative mtn torque it enhances the conflicting signals And mos tof the good ones are following these things. Imo, the MJO, AAM, and the stratosphere are usually the best indicators for the winter season pattern. Most everything else is noise (except for probably solar stuff, which I still don't have a handle on). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Does a ridge centered that far off the west coast count as a pna? PNA equation also takes into consideration how much ridging or lack thereof there is over the southeastern conus (sometimes that tips the index number scale). But to answer this question, in this example, no. Also the EPO on this map is positive, so you could have instances where there is an index number positive PNA, but with also a positive EPO the conus is basically getting flooded with Pacific air. Time sensitive: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zecmwfindices.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 And mos tof the good ones are following these things. Imo, the MJO, AAM, and the stratosphere are usually the best indicators for the winter season pattern. Most everything else is noise (except for probably solar stuff, which I still don't have a handle on). This. Don't see any forcing mechanisms to drive a change, basically looks like we're going to be wafting colder one week, warmer one week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 10 day modeling starting to get a colder look. Heights rising in Greenland. Nice cold pool in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Joe D'Aleo with Weatherbell's headline this morning "December looking better every day" - guess that depends on your perspective - in this case a cold forecast! "The GFS is beginning to take that cold air building in western North America further south and east. See the double warm surge week 1 but the beginnings of cold air intrusions, brief at first then more long lasting. By the end of the run the cold has vanquished the warmth. A few days later, see the northern tier has cold with a nice boundary for fun stuff to begin to happen. You can see late in the run a massive outbreak.It looks a lot like the 500mb anomaly from our analogs for December, with high latitude blocking draped over cut off lows. It suggests Alaska has donated their cold air to the lower 48 states. Last year it gave it up but to aras to the east in northern Canada as the NAO stayed + as we discussed yesterday.The AO and NAo are already behaving more like 2009/10, 2010/11 than 2011/12. Again this is happening in the polar troposphere without any stratospheric help. I believe that will come perhaps starting before mid December. If it does, that would cement the idea of a cold January in the analog set with the cold dominating" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 00z ECM is showing a snow event for areas NW of I-95 in the 9-10 day time frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Verbatim, it looks like snow->rain->snow on the EC for I-95. Mainly rain at the coast and mainly snow in the LV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 Maybe its me, but i dont see how you get all this meridonal flow when some of the pattern drivers don't support ridges like that. The -nao though i can see, The rocky mtn torque is on a good positive climb. The issue im having is how do you go from the flow we have now to a monsterous -epo/+pna ridge when the mjo absolutely has no fire to it at all with weak -OLR and+OLR until at the earliesT around christmas, as it looks now. Though, the mjo is pretty hard to predict on a weekly basis. Also, the east asian mtn torque doesn't support that wild meridonal flow as shown by the gfs. So my question is what else is driving the pattern to support this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 ^^ you should go read HM's bottom up event stuff or the Stratosphere. Ep flux vectors pointing npoleward and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 ^^ you should go read HM's bottom up event stuff or the Stratosphere. Ep flux vectors pointing npoleward and such. i read that but that response takes time he was thinking more jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Euro brings us back to "normal" after Wednesday for a day and then we go back to +4 850's on Friday. First week is going to end up pretty warm overall...gonna be damn tough to squeeze a negative departure out of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Euro brings us back to "normal" after Wednesday for a day and then we go back to +4 850's on Friday. First week is going to end up pretty warm overall...gonna be damn tough to squeeze a negative departure out of December. Anything on the 8-10 day storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Anything on the 8-10 day storm? Still on...Monday night into Tuesday AM. Pretty good for east of 99 and west of NJ Turnpike (0 850 line is about 15 miles east of the NJ Turnpike). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 Still on...Monday night into Tuesday AM. Pretty good for east of 99 and west of NJ Turnpike (0 850 line is about 15 miles east of the NJ Turnpike). still way out in time but what the euro shows at h5 does not support an east coast storm...no -nao or pna ridge...that to me would look more like an inland runner. their is no feature to lock in a high for coastal sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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