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Medium/Long Range Discussion


tombo82685

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I for one am in favor of the delay as long as its not completely denied. I'd much rather have it cold Dec. 15-30 than the 1st-15th. Cold early in December can easily get wasted as its often not quite enough to bring major snows. Give me the 2nd half any time......white X-mas all the way.

I prefer that too... since that's when I'll be back east again ;) (17th-27th)

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And here I was hoping for a white Christmas...thanks for destroying that chance on me.

Hey, the last trip I took home FOR snow was a home run (October 29 2011). Plus, two Christmas's ago was Boxing Day, I was around for that (Trenton got relatively screwed but only because you guys in Monmouth had over 2 feet!)

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Yea, I noticed that as well. Doesn't help that the Aleutian Ridge is roiding and promoting a GOA low.... Some convection near the dateline in the tropics could have helped To displace that, and cause a trough near the Aleutians and ridging along the west coast. ( If I'm

Not mistaken, somewhere between phase 8-1 would be convection near the dateline).. At least that was the case in 09-10.

And while there's a PV split being discussed / forecasted... Te split pV could set up shop towards Greenland. (+NAO).

There has been talk about how blocky things can get in the North Atlantic, and some of the GEFS show it, but they've been keeping it in the 280+ hour range. A week-week and a half ago, the gefs wee forecasting a pretty decent -NAO rrettograding towards the Davis straights. But as HM mentioned, this current system screwed the pooch by not cutting and pumping up the heights ahead of it and pull that block west. End result? Decent PNA with an east based -NAO and a swfe.

Anyhow, back towards the long range.....I was enthused about mid- late December... But with lack luster MJO progs, the staying power of the GOA low kicked the PAC jet into the conus, and lack luster NAO forecasts, I'm getting slightly less than enthused. I think we're going into a warm December with some decent cold shots with no staying power kind of pattern.

Then again, I'm no pro met and don't pretend to be.

You should probably wait a little while longer to be "slightly less than enthused" about the second half of a month that hasn't even begun yet.

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Hey, the last trip I took home FOR snow was a home run (October 29 2011). Plus, two Christmas's ago was Boxing Day, I was around for that (Trenton got relatively screwed but only because you guys in Monmouth had over 2 feet!)

You beat us yesterday with your .03 and you weren't here so as far as I can tell, you bring it.

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My avatar is becoming closer to reality.

yea, im not liking the trends. Nao looks to go pretty positive...the goa low doesn't seem to want to move. Just a straight flow right off the pacific into the conus. Just looks very up and down. Few warm periods few cold periods. If we can get something timed right maybe a shot of some winter.

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