NaoPos Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Wait in sne thread they have been saying mid december looks great. Does it not look like that anymore? I thought a west based -nao would nill a crappy pac it would... if we had one in the forseeable future... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 12z GFS Day 11+ looks exciting! Its way out there, but still good to see...Winter officially arrives 12/10ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 12z GFS Day 11+ looks exciting! Its way out there, but still good to see...Winter officially arrives 12/10ish? man, thats kinda sexy with that block height anomaly and coinciding 50-50 low...but yes, the gfs has been showing that kind of block for 300+ hours now for 2 weeks straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 So what are the winters like follwing 2 snow events and a hurricane for the area in november??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 So what are the winters like follwing 2 snow events and a hurricane for the area in november??? Don't think that's ever happened since records have been kept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 man, thats kinda sexy with that block height anomaly and coinciding 50-50 low...but yes, the gfs has been showing that kind of block for 300+ hours now for 2 weeks straight. Leaving out specifics obviously its always good to see a good potential pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 can 12/5 happen? only 180 hrs away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 can 12/5 happen? only 180 hrs away yep! nothing like reminding us how awesome that date could be, with a nice cold rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Looks like a very interesting pattern setting up for December - I see JB is going for another of his majority of the US White Christmas Holiday period (like he did successfully forecast a couple years back -see below - like he said a pretty bold forecast once again! "Now in case you did not see the video, the statement made on Thanksgiving was that 50% of the US would be covered with snow Christmas plus or minus 2 days. For me to verify I need one of the days 23,24,25,26,27 to have 50% coverage. Since the average is more like 33% that is a bold forecast. Last time I pulled this was 2010, said 50% from Nov 26 and it was 50.3% ( a couple of days later, more)" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 that is a heck of a cold air mass on euro 144hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Looks like a very interesting pattern setting up for December - I see JB is going for another of his majority of the US White Christmas Holiday period (like he did successfully forecast a couple years back -see below - like he said a pretty bold forecast once again! "Now in case you did not see the video, the statement made on Thanksgiving was that 50% of the US would be covered with snow Christmas plus or minus 2 days. For me to verify I need one of the days 23,24,25,26,27 to have 50% coverage. Since the average is more like 33% that is a bold forecast. Last time I pulled this was 2010, said 50% from Nov 26 and it was 50.3% ( a couple of days later, more)" yeah he posted this on twitter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 IMHo, two reason why first 2 weeks of dec are gonna blow. 1st. The storm yesterday was modelled to cut and be a huge -nao which would try and offset the pacific. That obviously didn't happen 2nd, MJO a week or so go was progged to have decent tropical activity in phases 8-2 to help shift the regime in the pacific. Now the mjo may weakly get inot one of those phases but then goes back into the COD. So you have to then rely on another driving force to change that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 IMHo, two reason why first 2 weeks of dec are gonna blow. 1st. The storm yesterday was modelled to cut and be a huge -nao which would try and offset the pacific. That obviously didn't happen 2nd, MJO a week or so go was progged to have decent tropical activity in phases 8-2 to help shift the regime in the pacific. Now the mjo may weakly get inot one of those phases but then goes back into the COD. So you have to then rely on another driving force to change that pattern. Yep...One positive I am seeing is possibly the emergence of a +PNA by the 8-11th period... That would be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 Yep...One positive I am seeing is possibly the emergence of a +PNA by the 8-11th period... That would be big. yea it looks to come towards mid dec...hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 yea it looks to come towards mid dec...hopefully. honestly, looking at the gefs thats not really a big pna ridge, looks more neutralish to me. Almost looks like a split flow to. The big diff is the goa low is pretty much gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 honestly, looking at the gefs thats not really a big pna ridge, looks more neutralish to me. Almost looks like a split flow to. The big diff is the goa low is pretty much gone. Thats better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 honestly, looking at the gefs thats not really a big pna ridge, looks more neutralish to me. Almost looks like a split flow to. The big diff is the goa low is pretty much gone. I'm busting left and right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 I'm busting left and right What was your call, first week of december? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 What was your call, first week of december? Yeah, and then delayed Dec 6-12. Now, I got nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 Yeah, and then delayed Dec 6-12. Now, I got nothing. The mjo, is mucking everything up. Im hoping for an ncep progression, but i know its not the most accurate. The euro euro ens just do loopties in the cod and around phase 8-1. I think once we get that goa low out of the way, things should start trending better even if the mjo is in the cod. If that were the case the other forcing mechanisms like the ao,nao,pna, should play a bigger role... a neutral pna, with -epo,neutral to slightly -nao, and -ao is a decent pattern and def offers hope for some wintry weather in parts of the region. The mtn torque though is not offering much help for a meridonal flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Tom, great points about the MJO. It's under performing these past few weeks when compares to it's forecast. Anyhow, seems as if we're goin suffer some cutters till mid month at least*. Key thing we might have to watch is the GOA low in the upcoming week or so. Gfs wants to break it down. Also, a -EPO with a -NAO would be money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 Tom, great points about the MJO. It's under performing these past few weeks when compares to it's forecast. Anyhow, seems as if we're goin suffer some cutters till mid month at least*. Key thing we might have to watch is the GOA low in the upcoming week or so. Gfs wants to break it down. Also, a -EPO with a -NAO would be money. i know people hate cutters, but they often lead or start the evolution for a -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I for one am in favor of the delay as long as its not completely denied. I'd much rather have it cold Dec. 15-30 than the 1st-15th. Cold early in December can easily get wasted as its often not quite enough to bring major snows. Give me the 2nd half any time......white X-mas all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 I for one am in favor of the delay as long as its not completely denied. I'd much rather have it cold Dec. 15-30 than the 1st-15th. Cold early in December can easily get wasted as its often not quite enough to bring major snows. Give me the 2nd half any time......white X-mas all the way. yea i completely agree. Down here our avg snowfall isnt affected as much if we miss a month like it is up in sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 i know people hate cutters, but they often lead or start the evolution for a -nao Lake cutters can lead to also some awesome photogenic cold front passages with some dark lowered clouds and sometimes thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Lake cutters can lead to also some awesome photogenic cold front passages with some dark lowered clouds and sometimes thunderstorms. Which means jack $hit in the winter....imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Which means jack $hit in the winter....imho Somebody get this man some snow ASAP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Somebody get this man some snow ASAP! folks with numbers in their user id are always trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Which means jack $hit in the winter....imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 folks with numbers in their user id are always trouble As are the ones with "snow" embedded in theirs... ;-) Cold fronts =cold rain in the winter. It's no bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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