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Medium/Long Range Discussion

tombo82685

By tombo82685,
in Philadelphia Region

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Redmorninglight

Redmorninglight

Posted
Posted

Nice summary and well presented. I have a lot of family up your way and it looks like they may be cashing in pretty well this winter for cold and snow. I don'y expect much snow since I moved here from N Jersey in the 90s. I hope your forcast holds because you are quite bullish on snow for Jan and Feb. Anything close to 2002-3 or 2009-10 would be pretty spectacular.

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am19psu

am19psu

Posted
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Clearly looks like my 30 day outlook for the first two weeks of December is going to bust, at least in the first week. I'm still thinking that the pattern will turn to cold here, but probably delayed until the 6th or 7th. Pretty incredible -AO/-NAO torch setting up through the first week.

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GD0815

GD0815

Posted
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Clearly looks like my 30 day outlook for the first two weeks of December is going to bust, at least in the first week. I'm still thinking that the pattern will turn to cold here, but probably delayed until the 6th or 7th. Pretty incredible -AO/-NAO torch setting up through the first week.

i will take the under on temperatures currently being shown, lets say, on the GFS for every day of that week, not saying it is going to be cold and snowy, but i feel llike i've seen the models do this with a -nao before and bust

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

Clearly looks like my 30 day outlook for the first two weeks of December is going to bust, at least in the first week. I'm still thinking that the pattern will turn to cold here, but probably delayed until the 6th or 7th. Pretty incredible -AO/-NAO torch setting up through the first week.

This POS storm for tomorrow really messed up the Atlantic Side to the equation (NAO). Initially, I envisioned more of a response from this potential "wave breaker" which I warned a while back was very important to the equation (obviously this trended away from that). This would lead to a gradient-like New England pattern into early December. Now this is somewhat legit still but it looks much warmer than I thought for New England now that tomorrow's storm trended weaker/less impactful.

There is still a chance this boundary trends south but I never liked the Mid Atlantic in this setup anyway.

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am19psu

am19psu

Posted
Posted

This POS storm for tomorrow really messed up the Atlantic Side to the equation (NAO). Initially, I envisioned more of a response from this potential "wave breaker" which I warned a while back was very important to the equation (obviously this trended away from that). This would lead to a gradient-like New England pattern into early December. Now this is somewhat legit still but it looks much warmer than I thought for New England now that tomorrow's storm trended weaker/less impactful.

There is still a chance this boundary trends south but I never liked the Mid Atlantic in this setup anyway.

Oh yeah. I'm quite happy that I never truly bit off on this storm (though the one I was envisioning for next week won't materialize). But man, the things that could've been with a strong -NAO, instead of the weaksauce we'll be getting instead.

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NaoPos

NaoPos

Posted
Posted

This POS storm for tomorrow really messed up the Atlantic Side to the equation (NAO). Initially, I envisioned more of a response from this potential "wave breaker" which I warned a while back was very important to the equation (obviously this trended away from that). This would lead to a gradient-like New England pattern into early December. Now this is somewhat legit still but it looks much warmer than I thought for New England now that tomorrow's storm trended weaker/less impactful.

There is still a chance this boundary trends south but I never liked the Mid Atlantic in this setup anyway.

agreed. Would have liked to see a cutter instead of this weaksauce flizzard. You've been putting some great disco out there, so i wouldnt beat yourself up. Keep up the great work and always a pleasure having you post down this way.

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HM

HM

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agreed. Would have liked to see a cutter instead of this weaksauce flizzard. You've been putting some great disco out there, so i wouldnt beat yourself up. Keep up the great work and always a pleasure having you post down this way.

Yeah I'm trying to be more like Wes on the forum, offering all solutions / careful objectivity but at the same time let you know which way I'm leaning. Overall, this warm up / variable regime for the Northeast is not exactly a failure of a forecast from last week (most of us agreed on that in the winter thread iN NE subforum). We also all agreed it wasn't a snowstorm pattern until maybe Dec 5-10. This period still holds interest, especially if we can get this weekend's system to trend stronger.

Well, it is his home region

I'm definitely a trader. I've posted mostly in the NE subforum over the last several months. axesmiley.png

I'll try and be more equal from now on...

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am19psu

am19psu

Posted
Posted

Overall, this warm up / variable regime for the Northeast is not exactly a failure of a forecast from last week (most of us agreed on that in the winter thread iN NE subforum). We also all agreed it wasn't a snowstorm pattern until maybe Dec 5-10. This period still holds interest, especially if we can get this weekend's system to trend stronger.

I mean, I had a -WPO/-AO/-NAO pattern forecasted. I just didn't expect that when coupled with a ++EPO, it would equal a major blowtorch.

Agree that the second period is still available for a snowstorm.

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

I mean, I had a -WPO/-AO/-NAO pattern forecasted. I just didn't expect that when coupled with a ++EPO, it would equal a major blowtorch.

Agree that the second period is still available for a snowstorm.

Even that isn't torchy:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/epo.png

This early December torch reminds me of the 1950s where you'd get favorable teleconnections but the flow over the CONUS was zonal anyway like 56 or 53.

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tombo82685

tombo82685

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Even that isn't torchy:

http://www.esrl.noaa.../images/epo.png

This early December torch reminds me of the 1950s where you'd get favorable teleconnections but the flow over the CONUS was zonal anyway like 56 or 53.

is this "warm up" a high thickness ordeal like we had last week. The thicknesses were high and supported warm temps but it never mixed down except a day or two. Especially with the -nao i could see a high over the northeast where we good radiational cooling in the mornings with temps in the 48-53 range around here.

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

is this "warm up" a high thickness ordeal like we had last week. The thicknesses were high and supported warm temps but it never mixed down except a day or two. Especially with the -nao i could see a high over the northeast where we good radiational cooling in the mornings with temps in the 48-53 range around here.

Yeah I could see it being comparable to what we just did where you get a couple of anomalous warm days then a cool down to "seasonable" levels or even below Dec 5-10.

The Dec 2-5 time frame will be warmer than normal but the greatest anomalies will be in the Midwest and New England.

For the record, here's what I said over in their forum:

"I think if the Atlantic side was improved, it would have prevented the GOA trough from affecting the PNA, forcing the waves to be shorter/more amplified and a quicker retrogression in the PAC. Now, this warm up was always in the cards and unfavorable snowstorm pattern but now I'm worried that even the Dec 5-10 time frame may suffer since the NAO isn't as assertive. But I still think New England is in the game and it was really all about this area anyway for this period."

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snowlurker

snowlurker

Posted
Posted

good lord the pAC looks terrible in the long range... get rid of that aluetian ridge and give me a trough there please.....

I'm starting to wonder if a lot of winter forecasts will at least partially bust with a -PNA for longer than a transient time regardless of a -NAO or -AO. I sure hope not as I'd rather be tracking snowstorms than be correct.
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tombo82685

tombo82685

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And den... Warm... Nothing on guidance suggesting a block returning towards Greenland. And with the PAC jet raging, we all

Know how this works out...

Doesn't help the mjo is pretty lackluster right now. Before it was progged to have some good convection firing to promote a phase 8-2 response, now its weak heads to phase 8-1 then back into COD.

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NaoPos

NaoPos

Posted
Posted

Doesn't help the mjo is pretty lackluster right now. Before it was progged to have some good convection firing to promote a phase 8-2 response, now its weak heads to phase 8-1 then back into COD.

Yea, I noticed that as well. Doesn't help that the Aleutian Ridge is roiding and promoting a GOA low.... Some convection near the dateline in the tropics could have helped To displace that, and cause a trough near the Aleutians and ridging along the west coast. ( If I'm

Not mistaken, somewhere between phase 8-1 would be convection near the dateline).. At least that was the case in 09-10.

And while there's a PV split being discussed / forecasted... Te split pV could set up shop towards Greenland. (+NAO).

There has been talk about how blocky things can get in the North Atlantic, and some of the GEFS show it, but they've been keeping it in the 280+ hour range. A week-week and a half ago, the gefs wee forecasting a pretty decent -NAO rrettograding towards the Davis straights. But as HM mentioned, this current system screwed the pooch by not cutting and pumping up the heights ahead of it and pull that block west. End result? Decent PNA with an east based -NAO and a swfe.

Anyhow, back towards the long range.....I was enthused about mid- late December... But with lack luster MJO progs, the staying power of the GOA low kicked the PAC jet into the conus, and lack luster NAO forecasts, I'm getting slightly less than enthused. I think we're going into a warm December with some decent cold shots with no staying power kind of pattern.

Then again, I'm no pro met and don't pretend to be.

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NaoPos

NaoPos

Posted
Posted

11-15 day is showing a -NAO... but it did last week at this time, too.

I just browsed the NE thread and Scott (coastal wx) was just saying this..

"Week3

Big Aleutian ridge and stout -NAO. Also a ridge out west with heightest anomalies over the SW. We do have a GOA trough, but low anomalies over SNE.

week4

Very similar to week4, perhaps more of a Rockies ridge. Still a GOA low trough.

The GOA trough is something that may try to make things hostile, but verbatim they had little effect."

So we'll see...

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