tombo82685 Posted November 24, 2012 Author Share Posted November 24, 2012 After last storm, I'm not getting too amped up just yet. Moisture and/or thermal profile issues love to tease our region. With that said, looks interesting. Yup, pretty much. If you lack elev or dont have heavy enough precip rates accum snow will be rough. It may snow, but it could be a 35 a non sticking mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yup, pretty much. If you lack elev or dont have heavy enough precip rates accum snow will be rough. It may snow, but it could be a 35 a non sticking mess. I 100% agree with this... there will be a lot of disappointed people even NW of the I-95 corridor who are expecting accumulating snow. I am thinking a more snow falling but not sticking deal. Lehigh Valley may even present some issues with that for a time. 250mb jet is positioned well and supportive of precip, so not a big deal with VIRGA, so that may be SOME good news if you are looking for hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yup, pretty much. If you lack elev or dont have heavy enough precip rates accum snow will be rough. It may snow, but it could be a 35 a non sticking mess. I got burnt by that last storm so badly. I would have bet my house that we would see Atleast a few inches here. I'm not letting that happen again. Hoping we somehow cash in this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 24, 2012 Author Share Posted November 24, 2012 Also, for people saying the 18z nam looks good. The fact its outside 48hrs is one thing, but in reality its pretty much all rain from dyl to downingtown line south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 24, 2012 Author Share Posted November 24, 2012 18z gfs, is a good bit colder from 925mb up for phl, though really isnt much precip and rates wouldn't support an accum snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 snow map from JB at WB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Say what you want but I respect a guy who puts out a forecast not soley based upon guidance. I don't have WB Premium so I can't say anything regarding his logic but his forecast isn't completely supported by guidance right now. We seem to be on the 4" line out here Paul, hopefully our elevation will help out with whatever falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 24, 2012 Author Share Posted November 24, 2012 snow map from JB at WB umm where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Bastardi's is here... not sure about that far SE with accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Don't we have a separate thread for JB/HM/DT banter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Don't we have a separate thread for JB/HM/DT banter? I suppose there is... new on this forum... sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I suppose there is... new on this forum... sorry I may actually be thinking of a different subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 18z gfs, is a good bit colder from 925mb up for phl, though really isnt much precip and rates wouldn't support an accum snow. yeah, maybe whiten the grass a bit out this way, if that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 24, 2012 Author Share Posted November 24, 2012 yeah, maybe whiten the grass a bit out this way, if that... I looked at the soundings, the north and west burbs prob get something but the city is still screwed with the lgt precip. Prob an early nov redu of 35 and ra/sn mix. Really need a deeper storm to back the winds more to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 yes - banter is elsewhere - but his maps are good Don't we have a separate thread for JB/HM/DT banter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Greg Great hearing from you - hope all is well - I share your feeling on JB -love his passion and strong pattern recognition (not always his short range..) Not only do I have WB premium but also AccuWeather and NJ PA weather - can't get enough! Regarding this upcoming event - I suspect it will be more impressive than the early November "trace event" but what do i know? Of course I am now writing a quarterly weather/climate summary article for the East Nantmeal newsletter.....but I do leave the real forecasting to the professionals! Paul Say what you want but I respect a guy who puts out a forecast not soley based upon guidance. I don't have WB Premium so I can't say anything regarding his logic but his forecast isn't completely supported by guidance right now. We seem to be on the 4" line out here Paul, hopefully our elevation will help out with whatever falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Banter aside...congrats on the writing assignment/accomplishment Paul. Well deserved! You are leaving your mark, much like those in our past that we enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Greg Great hearing from you - hope all is well - I share your feeling on JB -love his passion and strong pattern recognition (not always his short range..) Not only do I have WB premium but also AccuWeather and NJ PA weather - can't get enough! Regarding this upcoming event - I suspect it will be more impressive than the early November "trace event" but what do i know? Of course I am now writing a quarterly weather/climate summary article for the East Nantmeal newsletter.....but I do leave the real forecasting to the professionals! Paul Enjoyed your article in the last E. Nantmeal newsletter! Here in Bretton Woods, NH it's 21 degrees with flurries much of the day that haven't amounted to more than a patchy covering. Quite a different day up on Mt. Wash with my hike up to 4000', temp 18 winds gusting into the 50's and snow & blowing snow with about 2" on the ground. Coming home tomorrow sad to day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Interesting....I missed out on my annual NH Thanksgiving whitetail hunting trip in Pittsburg NH this year which broke a 5 year streak. It usually coincides with the change from autumn to winter in that region which makes it especially memorable. Glad you enjoyed winter-like conditions during your stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Lets move the Tuesday potential discussion to its own thread now... (NYC forum has its own thread, we should too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Lets move the Tuesday potential discussion to its own thread now... (NYC forum has its own thread, we should too) http://www.americanw...esday-11272012/ Jinx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 yea, seems like we might torch the 1st 2 weeks of December. Maybe not as pronounced. BUt hoprfully its temporary and we can hope for a reload of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 the first 2 weeks of december the average highs are in the 45 to 50 range in philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 im not liking the fact that their is a persistent trof off the GOA. With the mjo convection being very weak in phases 1 and 2 it would more correspond to a neutral to maybe weak pna which is down from the more bullish mjo prospects last week. Obviously forecasting the mjo is pretty tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 EC ensemble says epic torch for the Plains and not much better for the East on days 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 26, 2012 Author Share Posted November 26, 2012 EC ensemble says epic torch for the Plains and not much better for the East on days 6-10. i wonder if its just high thickness ordeal that is skewing it. Like last week was suppose to be a torch. We had high thicknesses but it didn't mix down, also helped with the high pressure by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 i wonder if its just high thickness ordeal that is skewing it. Like last week was suppose to be a torch. We had high thicknesses but it didn't mix down, also helped with the high pressure by. Well its based on the progged 2m temperatures. Of course the EC could have the pattern a bit off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 EC ensemble says epic torch for the Plains and not much better for the East on days 6-10. but but but the AO is going negative!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Take a look at this,,., it is my December outlook, and tell me what you think... keep in mind this encompasses Eastern Pa and NJ, which is my coverage area. http://epawablogs.com/december-2012-outlook-for-the-epawa-coverage-area/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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