tombo82685 Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 18z gfs continues colder, weaker trend towards Euro. Gives I-95 a couple of inches. 18Z GFS is all snow! might have a little snow in the beginning but its still rain or rain/snow for the city and nearby burbs...once to the ptw-ukt area sounding is more supportive of snow but the surface temps are in the mid 30s. the little inverted trof feature is not snow either..bl is to warm, with a departing high under us the southerly winds warm it. skew t for phl at hr 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 However, further North remains snow throughout... this is ABE same time frame: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 As of now, the timing sucks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Im more interested in the Dec 3-6 range, the 12z GFS long range pattern was absolutely drooling. Retrograding block. Yeah it showed a cutter because of its low resolution, but it was seriously a classic setup. I think were going to see a lot of changes in the LR because its really dependent on how the Pacific energy is handled, and that is always tough for models to forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 00z gfs coming in a little stronger. Snow to rain in immediate phl area. Looks like 3-6" N+W of PHL and immediate suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Get ready for either a SWFE event or weenies in for a huge disappointment if the ECM is correct. GFS upped the ante on the wetter solution.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Euro is on board at 0z but snow algos on wunderground aren't firing up...qpf pretty light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Euro is on board at 0z but snow algos on wunderground aren't firing up...qpf pretty light. Low levels are warm, a lot per EC raw is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Low levels are warm, a lot per EC raw is rain. Yep...it's a 30's & rain setup. It's not helping that the system is pretty flat coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yep...it's a 30's & rain setup. It's not helping that the system is pretty flat coming through. HPC tossing the Euro now. PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 311 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 VALID 12Z WED NOV 28 2012 - 12Z SAT DEC 01 2012 ...HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND... ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK... GENERAL FLOW PATTERN ==================== A REPETITION OF THE PATTERN SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS EXPECTED, WITH AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FORMING ACROSS THE WEST AND PLAINS, AND RENEWED TROUGHING ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A DEEP CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO QUEBEC AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THE RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLET OVER THE LOWER 48 IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPOSED OF BROAD FEATURES OF RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE, WHICH LEADS TO QUICK SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT/SYSTEM PROGRESSION THROUGH THE LOWER 48. MODEL PREFERENCES ================= THE 00Z ECMWF IS QUICK WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND OUTPACES THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD NEAR THE WEST COAST, INCLUDING ITS OWN 12Z ENSEMBLE MEAN. ALOFT, THE NON-ECMWF GUIDANCE FITS THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BEST ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FROM THURSDAY ONWARD (AND PLAYS INTO THE SLOWING/WESTWARD SHIFT SEEN IN THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF NEAR THE EAST COAST OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS), THOUGH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SURFACE LOW NEVER COUPLES WITH ITS 500 HPA CIRCULATION (WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY), SHOWING MINIMAL INTERNAL CONSISTENCY. BASED ON THE ABOVE, THE PRESSURES WERE BASED ON A 40/30/30 BLEND OF THE 00Z UKMET/00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z GEFS MEAN SOLUTION THEREAFTER. WHILE THIS MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY NEAR THE WEST COAST, IT LED TO A MORE COASTAL CYCLONE TRACK LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN COMPARED TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON'S PROGS AND A GREATER SNOW THREAT FOR THE NORTHEAST. WEATHER IMPACTS =============== MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD UP THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A LOW SWINGS OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BEFORE MOVING INTO ATLANTIC CANADA THURSDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD BE IN THE FORM OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST AND PLAINS SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE INFLUX THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH LIGHT RAINS COULD RETURN INTO TEXAS AND THE MIDWEST THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, LURED NORTHWARD BY WEAK FRONTAL WAVES ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY CAUSED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN AND PLAINS RIDGE. OUT WEST, HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY, AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY, WITH AREAL AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT (LEQ) AMOUNTS OF 4-6 INCHES EXPECTED...LOCAL LEQ AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 10 INCHES IN THE TOPOGRAPHY OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH COULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SIGNIFICANT HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS. ROTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 24, 2012 Author Share Posted November 24, 2012 Low levels are warm, a lot per EC raw is rain. which is what i have been tryinng to tell people. The BL gets warm due to the influx of southerly winds. so ISo its pretty much a cold rain with a little snow in the begining for the vast majority of us outside the far n and w burbs and lehigh valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 HPC tossing the Euro now. BTW, by 30's and rain -- I'm referring to Philly proper (which the GFS outside of a possible front end hit is suggesting for a chunk of the event). Allentown, Central PA, Poconos are more in play for *some* snow although it's not a lock yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 which is what i have been tryinng to tell people. The BL gets warm due to the influx of southerly winds. so ISo its pretty much a cold rain with a little snow in the begining for the vast majority of us outside the far n and w burbs and lehigh valley. New Jersey already had their November snow, to get any more would be to tempt fate if you know what I mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 24, 2012 Author Share Posted November 24, 2012 New Jersey already had their November snow, to get any more would be to tempt fate if you know what I mean... which is why im happy in 3 more weeks i will not have to face the dreaded 95 cor bl issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 BTW, by 30's and rain -- I'm referring to Philly proper (which the GFS outside of a possible front end hit is suggesting for a chunk of the event). Allentown, Central PA, Poconos are more in play for *some* snow although it's not a lock yet. It is never a lock till the snow is on the ground. haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 6z GFS is showing a potential of 6"+ for areas near and north of the Lehigh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 6z GFS is showing a potential of 6"+ for areas near and north of the Lehigh Valley. Yeah a nice snow for central+east PA outside of SE corner.Snow/rain in SE Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 12z GFS is weaker and further South, GGEM is status quo and further North. Going to be a tough call as to where the RN/SN line sets up here. May be a case without the precip being heavy enough, the temps at the surface remain above freezing even in Allentown, and it is falling as snow but melting, until dusk anyway... case in point, the Canadian: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 24, 2012 Author Share Posted November 24, 2012 I cant see bl temps. but the euro is colder than the gfs. storm is deeper than 0z dumps .5-75 from del river to lns to abe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Per wunderground 12z GFS is snow in Allentown (barely), rain in Philly. Line is pretty much between UKT and ABE on the GFS per wunderground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Per BUFKIT 12z GFS has about an inch iof snow at phl and ilg before changeover. Reading is mainly snow with some sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 wunderground has light snow falling from the NJ Turnpike on northwest. 1-3 Philly & NW with some 4"+ totals thrown in. edit: didn't realize wunderground changed the graphics on snow accums when I made the initial first post. Has been corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I cant see bl temps. but the euro is colder than the gfs. storm is deeper than 0z dumps .5-75 from del river to lns to abe Looks intersting on e-wall. Would like to see hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Hearing conflicting views....EURO looks good for Philly, however can't tell if lower levels are too warm, any input guys? I mean on other sub forums I'm heasring 3-7" for our area, I'd expect for excitement though so I guess LLs look warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Hearing conflicting views....EURO looks good for Philly, however can't tell if lower levels are too warm, any input guys? I mean on other sub forums I'm heasring 3-7" for our area, I'd expect for excitement though so I guess LLs look warm. Philly is snowier side of the r/s line but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 1-2" in the 3 hrs before, about an inch after that just NW of the city. I think 7" is probably pushing your luck on what the model is showing. It's probably 1-3 city, 2-5 nw burbs...factoring in time (day) it probably ends up being mostly grass and notsomuch on the roads except in those spots that get heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Really close on 12Z EC for snow (PHL) . Maybe a touch to warm at 925 mb. We're going to be splitting hairs on the rain/snow line for the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Really close on 12Z EC for snow (PHL) . Maybe a touch to warm at 925 mb. We're going to be splitting hairs on the rain/snow line for the next couple of days. Agree with this.. I think after looking at several soundings this may be a deal where it is snowing and melting on contact. Even in ABE for a time. Personally because of this and still some intensity in question, certainly no more than a WWA for anywhere. Lancaster, Berks, Lehigh, Northampton and Monroe... points NW. But IMHO 1-3" or perhaps a 4" lollipop. Ratios aren't that great either. Going to be a fun 72 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 It looks like maybe a couple for philly and more for the wesstern burbs, especially those with elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 After last storm, I'm not getting too amped up just yet. Moisture and/or thermal profile issues love to tease our region. With that said, looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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