NaoPos Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Well, verbatim, the euro wants to build a block.. Over Iceland.... The operTionals have been leaning towards an east based -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 Well, verbatim, the euro wants to build a block.. Over Iceland.... The operTionals have been leaning towards an east based -NAO. Yea just going off the euro, its a progressive pattern where you cool down then warm up. No real mechanism to drive the cold air south, thats where you need the pos pna. Unless you find yourself on the right side of the gradient, than the epo dump can work. The wild card though is how strong and in what position do you get the nao block in. A strong west based block would certainly help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I don't think the upcoming weather around thanksgiving qualifies as a torch for this time of year. It's mild. Average highs are still north of 50 until the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I don't think the upcoming weather around thanksgiving qualifies as a torch for this time of year. The torch talk was referring to the latter part of Dec into Jan, not now fixed I'd be OK with sledding weather followed by tennis weather followed by more sledding weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 0z euro looks like the 0-6z runs of the gfs. though its a warmer vers. 850s push through with still a decent slug of moisture left over but thicknesses look a little high. temps are in the 30s. best shot obv for snow is north and west on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 fixed I liked John's version much better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The torch talk was referring to the latter part of Dec into Jan, not now Well let's hope that does'nt happen, although this winter may go back and forth. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Latest tweets from JB "first part arctic attack Sunday - NYC may not be much above 35 Sunday PM after low in the 20's - US Forecasts playing catchup" "GFS coming out after day 7 trusting it with blocking and major temp gradients is fools errand if not in agreement with ECMWF ensembles" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I think any +PNA bursts are likely to be short lived given the moderately negative -PDO, which is strongly correlated to DJF negative PNA patterns. With that being said, all it takes is a transient burst of +PNA to produce a meaningful snowstorm. I agree, though a +PNA period similar to January 2009 is certainly possible. What bodes better for the East this winter over 2008-09, imo, is the likelihood of greater -AO/-NAO, as well as a somewhat more active STJ thanks to ENSO being more on the + side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Latest tweets from JB "first part arctic attack Sunday - NYC may not be much above 35 Sunday PM after low in the 20's - US Forecasts playing catchup" "GFS coming out after day 7 trusting it with blocking and major temp gradients is fools errand if not in agreement with ECMWF ensembles" He'll whiff on part 1. Moderating 850's, sunshine...it'll be 40 in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 From JB this evening "Most of you are not in the turning cold mode but storm mode. Well in the southwest and into the southern plains, that is not going to happen the next 10 days, but all eyes should be directed to the east coast where we should see quite a storm on the mid or north atlantic coast next week. The idea of one wave coming out and then the whole trough collapsing in is where I am now. Just like we know sandy sequel had to come up because of the flip in the NAO. It is highly unlikelty to see any storm at its deepest point north of 40 north till EAST of 70 west , which means that the situation late next week is complex with widespread light to moderate snow in the I-80 corridor Nebraska to Ohio, but the the threat of major snows over the northeast and a stronger lake effect outbreak than the one that we have this weekend, which for 24 hours from Michigan into pa and then to northern New England ( not really lake effect but orographic there) this weekend. I actually stopped off at the PSU D cooridinators house to warn him that I expect Saturday to be near freezing with ground whitening squalls blasting even this far southeast. PSU has not played a tough weather game yet" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 18z GFS 500mb for Day 6-8 stormis very similar to Feb 5 2001, http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2001/05-Feb-01-500MillibarMaps.html Storm dug deep enough where it went over to snow for Philly. It rained most of AM until the cold front passed. Not saying this will happen, especially since EURO went weaker with the wave, just saying FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 loving the block it retros over greenland acros the davis straights and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Wow the 18z GFS really bombs out that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Euro has completely "lost" next week's storm....just a weak clipper like wave pushing through now that bombs out in the Atlantic and reinforces a cool shot for the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Euro has completely "lost" next week's storm....just a weak clipper like wave pushing through now that bombs out in the Atlantic and reinforces a cool shot for the Northeast. HPC says 00Z Euro solution is not preferred. Not sure of all details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 HPC says 00Z Euro solution is not preferred. Not sure of all details. Yep...I noticed that. Just to add this -- the trend on the Euro over the last three runs has been to flatten out next week's system. 12z yesterday had a really weak wave that suppressed south of Philly (very flat wave that didn't get going until it got into the Atlantic). GFS has been much more consistent with its track run-to-run but the Euro's last few runs have really gone away from a west of 95 scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 GFS getting a little more interesting for next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 JB's storm lives on the 12GFS gfs keeps getting colder and caving to the almighty euro problem is euro now just shows a putrid weak wave of little consequence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 GFS getting a little more interesting for next week... a little front end snow, but majority of it is rain for philly and the surrounding counties. Pocs and abe are ice. The 925 low passes over the area still which isnt good. Also, with the euro not showing anything im not to sold on it. The gfs has been trending towards the euro the last day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 It's looking better than before. Places north and west of the city will get maybe a couple of inches according to this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 12Z GFS Ensembles look nice, but hey it's the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 GEM has a nice snowstorm. Getting a little more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Each run of the GGEM it takes a step down from a a wrapped up low to a weaker low...I think it should continue. Man the 12z GFS pattern day 8-11 is textbook classic, retrograding block, jeez Dec 5 storm would be a classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 a little front end snow, but majority of it is rain for philly and the surrounding counties. Pocs and abe are ice. The 925 low passes over the area still which isnt good. Also, with the euro not showing anything im not to sold on it. The gfs has been trending towards the euro the last day. Euro looks like it is not handling the PAC NW energy correctly and as a result downstream, keeps with the zonal/progressive flow and simply strings out the energy in the SE US. Can't dismiss it yet, but should have a better handle on it tomorrow when data sampling is available once energy is onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Euro looks like it is not handling the PAC NW energy correctly and as a result downstream, keeps with the zonal/progressive flow and simply strings out the energy in the SE US. Can't dismiss it yet, but should have a better handle on it tomorrow when data sampling is available once energy is onshore. Welcome aboard Bobby. Looking forward to your contributions here on the forum. And you won't have Irvin asking how much for Cincinnati... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Welcome aboard Bobby. Looking forward to your contributions here on the forum. And you won't have Irvin asking how much for Cincinnati... Thanks... had trouble for a long time getting in here without a non-generic e-mail. Had to do the trolling guest thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 Euro looks like it is not handling the PAC NW energy correctly and as a result downstream, keeps with the zonal/progressive flow and simply strings out the energy in the SE US. Can't dismiss it yet, but should have a better handle on it tomorrow when data sampling is available once energy is onshore. Im not saying its completely 100% not going to happen, but we have seen it time after time how the euro schools the other models and its ens. The next 24 hrs will be key, because then you are pretty much within 96hrs to see how the models trend. Also, the issue with the euro is the confluence just tears it apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 18z gfs continues colder, weaker trend towards Euro. Gives I-95 a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 18Z GFS is all snow! Minor event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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