dilly84 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro: WED 12Z 26-DEC 0.0 0.5 1009 91 100 0.33 552 544 WED 18Z 26-DEC 1.2 0.2 999 90 85 0.47 542 543 THU 00Z 27-DEC 0.6 -1.7 998 95 99 0.18 537 539 THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.1 -6.4 1005 89 92 0.11 538 534 THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.0 -9.8 1012 85 78 0.02 542 532 18z GFS WED 06Z 26-DEC -0.9 2.6 1010 87 95 0.01 552 543 WED 12Z 26-DEC 0.8 2.1 999 97 92 0.86 541 542 WED 18Z 26-DEC 1.6 -3.3 994 100 98 0.25 532 537 THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.9 -3.2 998 96 94 0.10 533 535 THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.2 -8.3 1008 94 80 0.01 535 529 west shift on the models. Starting to look bad in terms of snow for central and eastern Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 121226/0600Z 84 06020KT 30.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.011 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.01 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 121226/0900Z 87 06019KT 36.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.626 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.64 0| 0|100 121226/1200Z 90 07020KT 33.3F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.257 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.89 0| 0|100 121226/1500Z 93 09015KT 33.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.90 0| 0|100 121226/1800Z 96 17007KT 35.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.252 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 1.16 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 121226/2100Z 99 23008KT 34.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 1.20 12| 0| 88 121227/0000Z 102 29018KT 30.8F SNOW 15:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 15:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 1.24 100| 0| 0 here is the current gfs using iastate bufkit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 Wow!! Temps down to 13 here in Newark..was not suppose to get this cold!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 0z euro says.. "Hold on GFS. Not so fast." Dumps on central and eastern Ohio. Nearly an inch qpf mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 No worries guys... JB paints 8-12 across most of OH. DT on board to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Wow!! Temps down to 13 here in Newark..was not suppose to get this cold!! This morning I was running errands near the Newark/Heath airport and my Jeep temp gauge was reading 7! Much colder than I ever thought it would be this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Well after the latest 12z models, my towel is thrown barring some amazing 12z Euro run today. What a bummer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Gfs WED 06Z 26-DEC -0.8 1.3 1015 91 29 0.00 555 542 WED 12Z 26-DEC 0.7 0.5 1003 97 100 0.93 550 548 WED 18Z 26-DEC 2.5 3.3 997 99 91 0.38 539 541 THU 00Z 27-DEC 2.1 -1.3 997 99 97 0.24 534 537 THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.0 -5.3 1004 95 83 0.04 539 536 NAM is ridiculously warm WED 7A 26-DEC 2.5 6.1 1006 98 99 0.81 553 549 WED 1P 26-DEC 5.4 2.4 1000 99 78 0.45 544 544 WED 7P 26-DEC 3.1 -2.7 1001 96 91 0.08 535 534 I'd throw this run on the NAM out. It's way too warm. Gfs is about the same as it was at 0z. It'll be interesting to see if the EUROPEAN holds its ground. If it goes warm, I'll throw in the towel as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Hmm forgot to check out CMH since I'm home in Cincinnati for break. Looks like the GFS still shows a risk for freezing rain up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Hmm forgot to check out CMH since I'm home in Cincinnati for break. Looks like the GFS still shows a risk for freezing rain up there. NAM is too far northwest. That isn't going to happen. It shows the storm though. I expect it to correct back SE by 0z. The gfs op run has been too far nw compared to the ens. Ukie isn't bad. Wait on the euro. See what it has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 If the Euro moves north, you can probably write this one off. At least the pattern is much colder for the next 2-3 weeks, so this won't be the last chance for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Most in the storm thread are saying storm cancel in Ohio.. I'd at least wait for the Euro. But it is Ohio and this will be the third ****ty winter in a row if this storm cuts nw. We will be the center track for the snow. Meaning most storms will cut too far nw or too far east.. Had good opportunity for a great storm but it is quickly fading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 If the Euro moves north, you can probably write this one off. At least the pattern is much colder for the next 2-3 weeks, so this won't be the last chance for snow. I'd rather it be warm than 1" here and there. I believe this is our one chance during this cold pattern at a major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 o If the Euro moves north, you can probably write this one off. At least the pattern is much colder for the next 2-3 weeks, so this won't be the last chance for snow. i agree....(euro comment) however uk seems to be holding from the 00z solution.... and ....rumor has it the ggem has actually shifted east from 00z the gfs12z (verbatim was a trainwreck for us) but when you look at what it's doing with the 500 low and slp you can see how a shift to last nights euro could easily happen. stay tuned... but YES i agree...euro shifts nw then game over. oops i was going by a comment in the NE forum on the ggem....apparently it came north ugh ok edit again....ggem is definitely north of 00z BUT it's pretty damn close to the 00z euro....probably a bit warmer. Verbatim, a mixy start, back-loaded winterstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 If anything this storm will cut northeast, not northwest. I am worried we may not see any snow accumulation here in Buffalo, I think Central New York into the Dacks hits the jackpot on this one. In terms of the lakes I think Detroit gets broad brushed, with northern Ohio getting a decent shot from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GFS Ensembles Euro Ensembles GEM NAM Quite a bit of model consensus agreement in the storm track, with the outlier being the NAM currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 If anything this storm will cut northeast, not northwest. I am worried we may not see any snow accumulation here in Buffalo, I think Central New York into the Dacks hits the jackpot on this one. In terms of the lakes I think Detroit gets broad brushed, with northern Ohio getting a decent shot from this. The only way that's even remotely possible is if the models suddenly reverse to the consolidated vortex solution over Quebec/Labrador. Since they've all steadily moved away from that solution over the last 24-36 hours, I think it's a safe bet you'll get accums. Whether it's a huge deal or not is yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The only way that's even remotely possible is if the models suddenly reverse to the consolidated vortex solution over Quebec/Labrador. Since they've all steadily moved away from that solution over the last 24-36 hours, I think it's a safe bet you'll get accums. Whether it's a huge deal or not is yet to be determined. Opps I posted this in the wrong thread, but I do agree with your post! Hopefully we can cash in on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 o i agree....(euro comment) however uk seems to be holding from the 00z solution.... and ....rumor has it the ggem has actually shifted east from 00z the gfs12z (verbatim was a trainwreck for us) but when you look at what it's doing with the 500 low and slp you can see how a shift to last nights euro could easily happen. stay tuned... but YES i agree...euro shifts nw then game over. oops i was going by a comment in the NE forum on the ggem....apparently it came north ugh ok edit again....ggem is definitely north of 00z BUT it's pretty damn close to the 00z euro....probably a bit warmer. Verbatim, a mixy start, back-loaded winterstorm Chicago_wx said it came north in the storm thread, but he was specifically referring to the precipitation placement over IN. I didn't notice much north shift with the GGEM. Looked like a carbon copy of the 0z run. Actually a few mb weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 If the Euro moves north, you can probably write this one off. At least the pattern is much colder for the next 2-3 weeks, so this won't be the last chance for snow. If it shifts nw, I hope it's a significant shift. i want to turn off this damn computer...I don't think I can stay up for another run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 Just wow!! 3 days out and models say all rain..I give!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Towel thrown. Euro comes in warmer for central Ohio. It's officially a nw trend. Cmh WED 12Z 26-DEC 0.5 -0.1 1009 93 100 0.45 551 544 WED 18Z 26-DEC 1.3 -0.1 1001 92 37 0.41 542 541 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 PIT WED 12Z 26-DEC 0.1 -1.1 1016 88 100 0.17 555 542 WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.3 -3.5 1007 91 93 0.59 550 544 THU 00Z 27-DEC 0.7 0.0 1000 91 99 0.15 541 541 THU 06Z 27-DEC -0.1 -4.6 1002 95 99 0.21 538 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Towel thrown. Euro comes in warmer for central Ohio. It's officially a nw trend. Cmh WED 12Z 26-DEC 0.5 -0.1 1009 93 100 0.45 551 544 WED 18Z 26-DEC 1.3 -0.1 1001 92 37 0.41 542 541 it's way too close...unfortunately to throw it in.... this isn't about a trend...it's about a wobble at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I can't remember a decent storm in OH where we didn't sweat the WTOD. The more easterly movement to the storm will limit the northward extent of the WTOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 it's way too close...unfortunately to throw it in.... this isn't about a trend...it's about a wobble at this point DT says most of Ohio still in the 8-16" band. Must not be buying the temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 DT says most of Ohio still in the 8-16" band. Must not be buying the temps? LOL just saw that. And by most he means everyone west of I-71 and north/east of Dilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro is being mean. It throws us a bone next weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 LOL just saw that. And by most he means everyone west of I-71 and north/east of Dilly DT's play by play of the 12z euro seems awful generous with the snow. He even talks about heavy snow in southeastern OH and WV. I want HIS models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro is being mean. It throws us a bone next weekend! yea I saw that....call it disappointment insurance. If this storm realizes too warm and nw....we'll only be 4 or 5 days out from the next hope crusher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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