buckeye Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 If I had to make a forecast for cmh, I'd go with low-end warning event, something like 4-7" Time of year and snow during the daytime will definitely hurt a little. Extremely low confidence, these transfer situations are tenuous for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 If I had to make a forecast for cmh, I'd go with low-end warning event, something like 4-7" Time of year and snow during the daytime will definitely hurt a little. Extremely low confidence, these transfer situations are tenuous for our area. My thinking for Athens is trace-2"...not thrilled with the not too surprising north trend over the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 My thinking for Athens is trace-2"...not thrilled with the not too surprising north trend over the last 24 hours. actually the trend has been south if you look at the 00z gem and now the 12znam which was a significant shift towards colder, weaker, and more south. (for the nam that is a pretty good indicator that you might have some favorable model runs in your near future) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 actually the trend has been south if you look at the 00z gem and now the 12znam which was a significant shift towards colder, weaker, and more south. (for the nam that is a pretty good indicator that you might have some favorable model runs in your near future) True, the bleeding HAS been stopped for sure, however yesterday at 12z everything except for the Euro was absolutely drilling the ORV. In late March, even with a possible shift back south still on the table, I'd still rather not be south of the heavier snows on the models 48 hours out. The energy should be fully sampled now though, so we'll see if the 12z globals follow the NAM and tick south. I'd probably need a 50-75 mile shift from the 0z consensus. I'd feel good along I-70...wiggle room either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Ok..i have a question...WSW 2 counties to our west for 5-10 inches..saying 2-4 here..how does this happen..does it start dying because of transfer... or are the models still just not sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Ok..i have a question...WSW 2 counties to our west for 5-10 inches..saying 2-4 here..how does this happen..does it start dying because of transfer... or are the models still just not sure? This reminds me so much of the early March storm. Same basic forecast with the heaviest snow in western Ohio and then drying out rapidly east of Dayton. Columbus still had 6-8" out of that. This is a bit different because the primary is stronger and doesn't seem to want to transfer very quickly, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 This reminds me so much of the early March storm. Same basic forecast with the heaviest snow in western Ohio and then drying out rapidly east of Dayton. Columbus still had 6-8" out of that. This is a bit different because the primary is stronger and doesn't seem to want to transfer very quickly, but we'll see. you know I only got about 2" in that storm....yet Dublin and Upper Arlington picked up close to 8". That was a weird storm...very random and localized gradients. I think you're right, thsi one has the same potential to be just as wacky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 If some of the models are correct and this shifts south..why do we not have some type of watch here?? either WSW OR WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 If some of the models are correct and this shifts south..why do we not have some type of watch here?? either WSW OR WWA WWA does not get issued until the event is imminent. A watch is the only thing that gets issued ahead of time. I think ILN will add us to the WSW or even warning this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 you know I only got about 2" in that storm....yet Dublin and Upper Arlington picked up close to 8". That was a weird storm...very random and localized gradients. I think you're right, thsi one has the same potential to be just as wacky. Hopefully more of a widespread 6-8 though with the models advertising strong lift continuing into a good chunk of Monday behind the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Hopefully more of a widespread 6-8 though with the models advertising strong lift continuing into a good chunk of Monday behind the system. With the models shifting south I-70 should be sitting good!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 They just put up a WSW one county to my east...LOL now one county to my east NW and west..to funny!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 ILN put franklin and licking under a watch for 3-6"....as I watch the NAM rolling in hammering the i-70 corridor ... in fairness this would be a hell of a tough one to forecast here.... massive bust potential either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 ILN put franklin and licking under a watch for 3-6"....as I watch the NAM rolling in hammering the i-70 corridor ... in fairness this would be a hell of a tough one to forecast here.... massive bust potential either way I can see why they did that with their thinking of mixing. My forecast is calling for 100& snow actually: http://www.examiner.com/article/early-spring-ohio-snow-storm-developing My main doubts on us getting to the 6" criteria are marginal surface temps at the start. What if the first part of the heavy snow falls around 34 degrees? There will be melting/compacting that occurs. When i make my maps (like linked above) I am calling for the depth, not the total snow that falls from the sky. However, if the NAM QPF verifies (0.85") then figuring in melting would easily sit us at 6 inches. My forecast was the Euro slightly adjusted up so between 0.65 and 0.70" total QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 We are not far from the heaviest snows..temps tonight should reach middle 20's..so if we get some clouds in the morning..it could keeps temps down a bit..we will see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Even with some southern shifts I-70 looks good. I have increased my Athens bitter cast from a trace-2" to 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-3.shtml....liking the 1-3 day QPF.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Praying here for at least 6 inches of snow-hitting hard particularly Sunday late night. I have something Monday morning that I want to have cancelled!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Praying here for at least 6 inches of snow-hitting hard particularly Sunday late night. I have something Monday morning that I want to have cancelled!!! School? Even if this only ends up being a 3-6" type deal near and just south if I-70, it's very unusual for this late in the year and will just be another storm that hits central OH well. I think CMH is knocking on the door of 40" of snow this season which is outstanding considering how generally warm this winter was, especially to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 The Lady on channel 4 has no clue...2-4 for Columbus...don't think she is even a meteorologist....where is Ben...Jym...Bob..storm coming and no mets..really?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 School? Even if this only ends up being a 3-6" type deal near and just south if I-70, it's very unusual for this late in the year and will just be another storm that hits central OH well. I think CMH is knocking on the door of 40" of snow this season which is outstanding considering how generally warm this winter was, especially to start. Yes it is..school related at least. I need Columbus City Schools to close, so it needs to be pretty bad-at least 6 inches by Monday morning I would think. It has happened twice since February started, so I am hoping for a final third closing. Hard to believe we have had over 3 feet of snow. I don't think it has even been below zero even out here in Madison County. I don't know if it has even dropped to five degrees even this winter. Heck, might as well go for 4 feet for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Latest models really showing the typical Ohio screw zone with the primary transfering/occluding. Quite annoying...But I think my 4-6 for the Columbus metro is still looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 you know I only got about 2" in that storm....yet Dublin and Upper Arlington picked up close to 8". That was a weird storm...very random and localized gradients. I think you're right, thsi one has the same potential to be just as wacky. Just now saw this post. Crazy that upper arlington got 8" and down the road at OSU we got only 5 At least you verified my lower 2-5" range on that last storm LOL I did have 6-8 for the western part of the county I believe but not quite as tight of a gradient as we saw! This storm tomorrow is really looking very similar to the early March one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I think the difference between the early March storm is that the transfer doesn't look to happen as fast and it's a stronger low to begin with. I'm going with 5-8" for Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I think the difference between the early March storm is that the transfer doesn't look to happen as fast and it's a stronger low to begin with. I'm going with 5-8" for Columbus. FWIW the new 12z NAM upped QPF and has us sitting in a nice 6-8 band now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Latest RAP and HRRR suggest rain until 11 or 12 tonight. Still a solid 3 inches through 5am. When adding another 1-2 with backend snows in the morning, we should still get into my 4-6 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Latest RAP and HRRR suggest rain until 11 or 12 tonight. Still a solid 3 inches through 5am. When adding another 1-2 with backend snows in the morning, we should still get into my 4-6 range. Temps dropped rapidly as the first slug of precip came in. Already down to 34 in your neck of the woods. 31 and snowing in ILN. I don't know that it takes until 11 or 12 tonight to change over where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 Why is there 2 different slugs of snow..the one now is light...... with what I guess is the main one laying back in ILL...so whats up?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Why is there 2 different slugs of snow..the one now is light...... with what I guess is the main one laying back in ILL...so whats up?? the upper level low is the one spinning just east of st. louis. That's the main show. Progged to head due east. Whoever is lucky enough to be under the deform zone as it heads east wins. Right now...that looks pretty well lined up with i-70. Will just have to watch how much warm air and or dry air tries to get out in front of it and if that spoils anything....also how fast precip shuts off as transfer to coast begins. and we should make a rule here in this thread....no one is allowed to start calling busts until after 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 ILN still going with 6-10" for DAY at their 4pm update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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