Ohio and surrounding states (Let's talk winter!)

[jbcmh81]

Well, the good news for me is that I did say December would be the warmest month of winter... this is providing a good opportunity for this to be right. Hopefully the long-range pattern change advertised around the 20th is really coming, though, because I had January and February cold.

[buckeye]

What the heck did he say that cost Bob Nunnally 25,000 dollars? lol

I could guess, but I can't afford a 25k lawsuit.

[vespasian70]

I could guess, but I can't afford a 25k lawsuit.

LOL!

But then again, I doubt Nunnally surfs this discussion board, after all it is about weather.

[HighTechEE]

11 months to the day since KDAY has recorded an inch of snow! 334 days and counting (I think); makes Chi town's 280 look like nothing!...

[jbcmh81]

I still think we all see measurable snow before the end of the month, but as for the month overall, it looks to be more or less a complete bust for significant winter weather of any kind, especially cold. The cold is always in the long range, but has consistently disappeared as we get closer. The first half of the month looks to easily be one of the warmest on record. While the second half looks marginally colder, it's not going to make up for it so the month should be 2-4 degrees above normal all said and done... unless we get a major change the last few weeks. Just not seeing it.

[dilly84]

Don't want to press the panic button yet, but it's starting to get dangerously close to looking similar to last year. I see nothing to indicate any measurable snowfall before Christmas. Long range forecasting has just been bad as of late. Cold air that we do get is stale and doesn't stick around.

[wxdudemike]

12z Euro throws us a bone today. Has some light amounts of snow Tuesday behind the system and more significant LE/wrap-around snow behind the monster it brews next weekend.

[Steve]

this winter is really starting to look like last winter.. a week ago the forecast is 34 and snow on Christmas Day... now it's 54 degrees..lol

[WestMichigan]

Stop staring at the point and click forecast so much. They change with every model run.

[Steve]

I just have to laugh...will we ever get a favorable storm track..kinda doubt it..And another christmas with no hopes of snow!! Getting to old to care and to dissapointed to hope!

[buckeye]

The annoying -PNA needs to go. buckeye should will it away............

I'm working on it. I feel somewhat optimistic about next weeks bowling ball ejecting from the southern rockies. Even with the -pna, if we can get a bully block, it could force a juicy bowling ball to head east with true arctic air in place.

So yes, i have an odd feeling of optimism,

than again that could also be the general tso's I had for lunch working thru my lower colon.

[Steve]

So what days we looking at next week?

[buckeye]

Well it looks like the euro wants to blast next weeks monster almost due north....way west. The 6z gfs the same.

The next storm comes in a few days after that with the same modelled look on the gfs. A nice block to the north that keeps it from cutting. Of course as forecast time approaches the block will not realize to that strength and the storm will cut...again. These are the kind of patterns, (even in modelling), that tend to lock in thru DEC and repeat in Jan and Feb. So get use to it, rain and wind, turning colder and flurries, moderating back to rain and wind....wash rinse repeat. This is going to be a middle and upper midwest blockbuster (pun intended) winter.

I have no doubt that eventually one of these storms is going to finally get us.... in March.

Clearly yesterday's optimism was the general tso's.

[buckeye]

bleak buckeye bleak

is that commentary or aggreement?

honestly, if we can't pull something out of our hat with next weeks storm(s), the 'cold-storm' pattern for the winter is set. I've seen it many many times over the years. When the pattern does breakdown from time to time, it will be to more widespread moderation.

Didn't seem appropriate to b*tch in the complaint thread....I think 2/3rds of this forum will have an excellent winter.

[dilly84]

Calling it. Many will say I am crazy. I'm going to just face defeat, admit my winter forecast a bust and call winter cancel for most of Ohio.. I agree with Buckeye on the pattern setting up which is cold and dry, back to warm and rainy. Etc. Won't matter in 3 days though wall it? Lol.

[pondo1000]

Calling it. Many will say I am crazy. I'm going to just face defeat, admit my winter forecast a bust and call winter cancel for most of Ohio.. I agree with Buckeye on the pattern setting up which is cold and dry, back to warm and rainy. Etc. Won't matter in 3 days though wall it? Lol.

Oh come one! There is always 348 hour fantasy land on the GFS. LOL

[jbcmh81]

I'm working on it. I feel somewhat optimistic about next weeks bowling ball ejecting from the southern rockies. Even with the -pna, if we can get a bully block, it could force a juicy bowling ball to head east with true arctic air in place.

So yes, i have an odd feeling of optimism,

than again that could also be the general tso's I had for lunch working thru my lower colon.

I'm not sure about storm chances, but I feel pretty good about the persistant above normal weather being just about over for awhile. Hell of a warm spell for December, but after Thursday I think we're done through the rest of the month and into early January at least. As long as it's cold, we can work on the snow.

[jbcmh81]

is that commentary or aggreement?

honestly, if we can't pull something out of our hat with next weeks storm(s), the 'cold-storm' pattern for the winter is set. I've seen it many many times over the years. When the pattern does breakdown from time to time, it will be to more widespread moderation.

Didn't seem appropriate to b*tch in the complaint thread....I think 2/3rds of this forum will have an excellent winter.

Absolutely disagree. December's pattern can change in a big way come January and usually does. The more extreme the month, the bigger the change seems to be. There is nothing to indicate the warm, snowless pattern continues through winter.

[Steve]

Local forecast calling for 1-2 inches of snow Thursday night Friday...lol..we all know how that works out!!

[jbcmh81]

There have been 30 winters in Columbus where the December mean changed 9 degrees or more in January. Of these, 28 of the 30 were a turn towards much colder, and 2 were towards warmer. 20 of the 30 had above to much above normal Decembers, and all 20 saw Januarys at or below normal.

Some examples of a warm December that changed in January were 1894-1895, 1911-1912, 1939-1940 and 1984-1985. So yeah, it does happen, and it happens more than people think. If I had included winters that turned just 5 degrees colder from December to January, the number would be significantly higher. And I'm really not seeing how this pattern lasts through January when it's not even lasting through December. Let's not forget that our best snow months tend to not be super cold. January-February 1910, February 2010, etc. were below normal, but not brutal in any way. So just a colder pattern is a good start.

[wxdudemike]

This storm on Thursday could pack some serious wind for us. BUFKIT is suggesting over 55mph.

[oldlogin]

Impressive AFD out of ILN this PM

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ALL THE FOCUS TODAY IS ON THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND

ITS IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INHERITED

A FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS THAT ALREADY HAD MUCH OF THE GIST

OF WHAT WILL UNFOLD - THUS WE FOCUSED ON ADDING DETAIL WHERE WE

COULD AND GET HEADLINE DECISIONS MADE. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT

CHANGES IN THE FORECAST ITSELF BASED ON TODAY/S DATA.

GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 19.12Z RAOBS CLEARLY SHOW THE POTENT

SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOUT TO INDUCE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE

OVER THE SRN PLAINS. KFGZ/KABQ RAOBS BOTH HAD MORE THAN 100M

HEIGHT FALLS /500MB/ WHILE AIRCRAFT SOUTH OF THESE STATIONS

SAMPLED AN INTENSE 150-170KT JET STREAK /250MB/ THAT SEEMS TO HAVE

BEEN UNDER-INITIALIZED BY ALL DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS BY A GOOD

20KTS. A CLASSIC MID-WINTER SYSTEM...SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS

ALREADY IMPRESSIVE AND RAP ANALYSIS /19Z/ ALREADY HAS THE

TROPOPAUSE FOLD /1.5 PV SURFACE/ DOWN TO 650MB OVER NRN NM. 996MB

CYCLONE IS ALREADY DEEPENING IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND

GUIDANCE IS NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN A VERY TYPICAL DECEMBER TRACK

THROUGH MISSOURI AND OVER THE CHICAGO METRO AREA TOWARD DETROIT BY

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE LEFT OF THE

TRACK AND AMPLE CONVECTION/WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT FOR THE WFO ILN CWA...THERE CONTINUES

TO BE A LESSENING MODEL SIGNAL FOR A DAMAGING /HIGH WIND WARNING/ WIND

EVENT. DPROG/DT OVER ABOUT THE LAST DAYS WORTH OF DAY HAS TRENDED

TO AN EARLIER DEEPENING...AND HIGHER MINIMUM PRESSURE WHEN THE LOW

TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH LATEST DATA SUGGESTING

MODEST FILLING WILL BE OCCURRING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PRESSURES

BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 984MB NEAR CHICAGO. THIS MODEST CHANGE

DECREASES TO SOME DEGREE THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT...AND HAS

ALLOWED THE 925MB/850MB LAYERED WIND MAX TO DROP OUT OF ALARMING

RANGE THAT WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE PROMPTED A HIGH WIND WATCH OR

WARNING. THAT BEING SAID...WE TAKE FROM THE WIND...BUT NOW HAVE

ADDED A LITTLE MORE SNOW BASED ON NOW-AGREED-UPON SECONDARY PV

ANOMALY THAT WILL WRAP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER

TROUGH LATER ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THAT SHOULD BRING A RATHER

CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF

I-70 THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SO IMPACTS WILL STILL BE

SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS SYSTEM...PROBABLY MORE SO FROM ICY

ROADS/WINTER TRAVEL ISSUES THAN FROM WIND DAMAGE/POWER

OUTAGES...ALTHOUGH WITH ANTICIPATED GUSTS TO 45-50MPH OR A LITTLE

HIGHER...ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR/NUISANCE TREE DAMAGE IS

STILL EXPECTED.

DETAILS ON IT ALL...WITH THE TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE NWP MODEL

SUITE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MOST ASPECTS OF THIS FORECAST. VERY

STRONG/DEEP LAYERED FORCING IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE PV

CURRENTLY IN NM WILL INDUCE A VERY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEED

LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL MANIFEST AS A ELONGATED/LARGE AREA OF

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY MOVING FROM MS VALLEY

INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE. THINK THIS SPREADS ACROSS THE WESTERN

AREAS JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH BEST POTENTIAL OF THUNDER WEST OF

I-71 WHERE MUCAPE IS THE HIGHEST. ALL AREAS GET A GOOD 1/2 INCH OF

RAIN IT APPEARS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHICH SHIFTS QUICKLY THROUGH

THE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

A 60-65KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE DRIVING THIS

ACTIVITY...AND MAY PRESENT A WIND ISSUE AT THE SURFACE...BUT WARM

ADVECTION WIND EVENTS TOUGH TO REALIZE GIVEN INVERTED THERMAL

PROFILES...DEEP LAYERED OMEGA...AND THICK CLOUDS...SO THINK

MORNING/AFTN WILL BE WINDY...BUT NOT WIND ADVISORY

LEVELS...PROBABLY 20/25 GUST 35/40 MPH. PERHAPS A LITTLE STRONGER

IN HEAVIER REFLECTIVITY CORES WITH PASSING SHOWERS...BUT WE CHOSE

TO HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

WIND POTENTIAL GOES UP MARKEDLY AS THE COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO

WESTERN AREAS AROUND 21Z AND MARCHES ACROSS THE CWA EFFECTIVELY IN

ABOUT 4-5 HOURS TIME. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN A FINE LINE OF

SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY - AND IF IT OCCURS - THERE IS SHALLOW

SB BUOYANCY /SHOWN VERY NICELY IN 19.12Z BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM NAM-

WRF/ THAT THIS LINE COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HIGH WIND GUSTS.

HOWEVER...BUOYANCY IS SO SHALLOW THAT CHARGE SEPARATION SEEMS

IMPOSSIBLE AND THUNDER WILL BE A STRETCH...SO DECIDED TO GET WIND

ADVISORY GOING AT 21Z ALL AREAS IN CASE THE FRONT CAN TRANSPORT

STRONG GUSTS TO THE SURFACE VIA THIS MECHANISM. IN THE WAKE OF THE

FRONT...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN VERY QUICKLY AND WITH A PSEUDO-DRY

SLOT /THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AMPLE/...THERE IS

REMAINING INSTABILITY WITH STRONG GUST POTENTIAL IN THE HOURS

FOLLOWING THE FRONT DESPITE DEEPER LAYER STRONG WINDS WILL HAVE

YET TO ARRIVE. WIND POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS

19.12Z NAM/GFS/ARW-WRF ALL BRING 55-60KT 925-850MB LAYERED WIND

MAX SOUTHEAST FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH THE HEART

OF THE CWA. WITH COLD ADVECTION...RAPID PRESSURE RISES...AND

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...CONTINUED ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS

ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE MOST CONCERNING AREA FOR HIGHER END

GUSTS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL OHIO IN THE HIGHER

TERRAIN AREAS AND WEST TO THE INDIANA BORDER WHERE SOME 55 MPH

GUSTS COULD BE SEEN. ANOTHER BIG CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS THE

LINGERING OF STRONG WINDS NOW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON

FRIDAY...AND WHILE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND OMEGA IS SEEN NEAR

THE SURFACE WHICH WILL HELP TEMPER GUSTS...EVEN CONSERVATIVE MOMENTUM

TRANSPORT /MIXING/ TECHNIQUES SUGGEST LOW-END WIND ADVISORY WINDS

WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST AREAS AT LEAST INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...AND

PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

IN TERMS OF SNOW...THE TEMP DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT IS

FAST AND IMPRESSIVE...AND MAY INDUCE RAPID ROAD FREEZING AND ICING

EVEN IN THE DRY SLOT EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. LATER IN THE

EVENING...SECONDARY PV WRAPS SOUTHEASTWARD /ACCOMPANIED BY LOW

LEVEL WIND MAX MENTIONED ABOVE/ AND SPREADS GOOD FORCING FOR UVM

INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 WHERE SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ABUNDANT.

SEE A NICE LITTLE STRIPE OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS WCNTL INTO

CNTL OH...SO DECIDED TO BE SIMPLE AND COMBINE THE THREATS OF

STRONG WINDS/SNOW/REDUCED VISIBILITIES/ICY ROADS INTO A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW AMOUNTS WON/T BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT COMING

OUT OF A LONG TERM WARM PERIOD...PAVEMENT SUBSURFACES ARE

ATYPICALLY WARM. WITH VERY COLD AIR AND PERSISTENT SNOW

SHOWERS/STRONG WINDS REMOVING THIS WARMTH FROM THE SKIN SURFACE OF

THE PAVEMENT...SETUP IS SUCH THAT ROADS COULD BECOME EXTREMELY

SLIPPERY IN THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA ESP LATER THURS NIGHT INTO

MUCH OF FRIDAY WHERE SNOW IS PERSISTENT. COMBINED WITH RAPID VSBY

CHANGES IN SNOW SHOWERS...THESE SITUATIONS CAN BE SNEAKY-

DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE MILD WINTER THUS FAR. DON/T

SEE A SIGNAL IN THE DATA FOR SNOW RATIOS AS DIFFERENT THAN CLIM0 -

MUCH OF LIFT/SATURATIONS REMAINS BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES

AND COBB RATIOS FROM A WEALTH OF SOURCES ARE ALL FROM 8:1 TO 11:1

FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN WINTER WX ADVISORY

CONDITIONS IN AROUND CMH METRO...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO GET CUTE AT

THIS MOMENT AND TRY TO BE TOO FINE GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES.

ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS IN THE SOUTH NOT EXPECTED TO

SEE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH SNOW FOR TRAVEL ISSUES...BUT EVEN IN THESE

AREAS CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SLIPPERY TRAVEL AS MAIN WAVE

TRAVERSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE

STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPS AND WARM ROAD SURFACES CAUSING

SLIPPERY TRAVEL. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANSION OF

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IF SNOW SHOWERS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD OR

CONTAIN HEAVIER RATES THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE FRIDAY EVENING AS WINDS DECREASE AND

SYSTEM PULLS OUT.

[kerbs]

Impressive AFD out of ILN this PM

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ALL THE FOCUS TODAY IS ON THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND

ITS IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INHERITED

A FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS THAT ALREADY HAD MUCH OF THE GIST

OF WHAT WILL UNFOLD - THUS WE FOCUSED ON ADDING DETAIL WHERE WE

COULD AND GET HEADLINE DECISIONS MADE. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT

CHANGES IN THE FORECAST ITSELF BASED ON TODAY/S DATA.

GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 19.12Z RAOBS CLEARLY SHOW THE POTENT

SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOUT TO INDUCE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE

OVER THE SRN PLAINS. KFGZ/KABQ RAOBS BOTH HAD MORE THAN 100M

HEIGHT FALLS /500MB/ WHILE AIRCRAFT SOUTH OF THESE STATIONS

SAMPLED AN INTENSE 150-170KT JET STREAK /250MB/ THAT SEEMS TO HAVE

BEEN UNDER-INITIALIZED BY ALL DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLNS BY A GOOD

20KTS. A CLASSIC MID-WINTER SYSTEM...SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS

ALREADY IMPRESSIVE AND RAP ANALYSIS /19Z/ ALREADY HAS THE

TROPOPAUSE FOLD /1.5 PV SURFACE/ DOWN TO 650MB OVER NRN NM. 996MB

CYCLONE IS ALREADY DEEPENING IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND

GUIDANCE IS NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN A VERY TYPICAL DECEMBER TRACK

THROUGH MISSOURI AND OVER THE CHICAGO METRO AREA TOWARD DETROIT BY

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE LEFT OF THE

TRACK AND AMPLE CONVECTION/WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT FOR THE WFO ILN CWA...THERE CONTINUES

TO BE A LESSENING MODEL SIGNAL FOR A DAMAGING /HIGH WIND WARNING/ WIND

EVENT. DPROG/DT OVER ABOUT THE LAST DAYS WORTH OF DAY HAS TRENDED

TO AN EARLIER DEEPENING...AND HIGHER MINIMUM PRESSURE WHEN THE LOW

TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH LATEST DATA SUGGESTING

MODEST FILLING WILL BE OCCURRING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PRESSURES

BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 984MB NEAR CHICAGO. THIS MODEST CHANGE

DECREASES TO SOME DEGREE THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT...AND HAS

ALLOWED THE 925MB/850MB LAYERED WIND MAX TO DROP OUT OF ALARMING

RANGE THAT WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE PROMPTED A HIGH WIND WATCH OR

WARNING. THAT BEING SAID...WE TAKE FROM THE WIND...BUT NOW HAVE

ADDED A LITTLE MORE SNOW BASED ON NOW-AGREED-UPON SECONDARY PV

ANOMALY THAT WILL WRAP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER

TROUGH LATER ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THAT SHOULD BRING A RATHER

CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF

I-70 THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SO IMPACTS WILL STILL BE

SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS SYSTEM...PROBABLY MORE SO FROM ICY

ROADS/WINTER TRAVEL ISSUES THAN FROM WIND DAMAGE/POWER

OUTAGES...ALTHOUGH WITH ANTICIPATED GUSTS TO 45-50MPH OR A LITTLE

HIGHER...ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR/NUISANCE TREE DAMAGE IS

STILL EXPECTED.

DETAILS ON IT ALL...WITH THE TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE NWP MODEL

SUITE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MOST ASPECTS OF THIS FORECAST. VERY

STRONG/DEEP LAYERED FORCING IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE PV

CURRENTLY IN NM WILL INDUCE A VERY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEED

LATER TONIGHT WHICH WILL MANIFEST AS A ELONGATED/LARGE AREA OF

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY MOVING FROM MS VALLEY

INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE. THINK THIS SPREADS ACROSS THE WESTERN

AREAS JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH BEST POTENTIAL OF THUNDER WEST OF

I-71 WHERE MUCAPE IS THE HIGHEST. ALL AREAS GET A GOOD 1/2 INCH OF

RAIN IT APPEARS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHICH SHIFTS QUICKLY THROUGH

THE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

A 60-65KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE DRIVING THIS

ACTIVITY...AND MAY PRESENT A WIND ISSUE AT THE SURFACE...BUT WARM

ADVECTION WIND EVENTS TOUGH TO REALIZE GIVEN INVERTED THERMAL

PROFILES...DEEP LAYERED OMEGA...AND THICK CLOUDS...SO THINK

MORNING/AFTN WILL BE WINDY...BUT NOT WIND ADVISORY

LEVELS...PROBABLY 20/25 GUST 35/40 MPH. PERHAPS A LITTLE STRONGER

IN HEAVIER REFLECTIVITY CORES WITH PASSING SHOWERS...BUT WE CHOSE

TO HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

WIND POTENTIAL GOES UP MARKEDLY AS THE COLD FRONT PLOWS INTO

WESTERN AREAS AROUND 21Z AND MARCHES ACROSS THE CWA EFFECTIVELY IN

ABOUT 4-5 HOURS TIME. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN A FINE LINE OF

SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY - AND IF IT OCCURS - THERE IS SHALLOW

SB BUOYANCY /SHOWN VERY NICELY IN 19.12Z BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM NAM-

WRF/ THAT THIS LINE COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HIGH WIND GUSTS.

HOWEVER...BUOYANCY IS SO SHALLOW THAT CHARGE SEPARATION SEEMS

IMPOSSIBLE AND THUNDER WILL BE A STRETCH...SO DECIDED TO GET WIND

ADVISORY GOING AT 21Z ALL AREAS IN CASE THE FRONT CAN TRANSPORT

STRONG GUSTS TO THE SURFACE VIA THIS MECHANISM. IN THE WAKE OF THE

FRONT...LAPSE RATES STEEPEN VERY QUICKLY AND WITH A PSEUDO-DRY

SLOT /THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AMPLE/...THERE IS

REMAINING INSTABILITY WITH STRONG GUST POTENTIAL IN THE HOURS

FOLLOWING THE FRONT DESPITE DEEPER LAYER STRONG WINDS WILL HAVE

YET TO ARRIVE. WIND POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS

19.12Z NAM/GFS/ARW-WRF ALL BRING 55-60KT 925-850MB LAYERED WIND

MAX SOUTHEAST FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH THE HEART

OF THE CWA. WITH COLD ADVECTION...RAPID PRESSURE RISES...AND

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...CONTINUED ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS

ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE MOST CONCERNING AREA FOR HIGHER END

GUSTS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL OHIO IN THE HIGHER

TERRAIN AREAS AND WEST TO THE INDIANA BORDER WHERE SOME 55 MPH

GUSTS COULD BE SEEN. ANOTHER BIG CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS THE

LINGERING OF STRONG WINDS NOW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON

FRIDAY...AND WHILE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND OMEGA IS SEEN NEAR

THE SURFACE WHICH WILL HELP TEMPER GUSTS...EVEN CONSERVATIVE MOMENTUM

TRANSPORT /MIXING/ TECHNIQUES SUGGEST LOW-END WIND ADVISORY WINDS

WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST AREAS AT LEAST INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...AND

PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

IN TERMS OF SNOW...THE TEMP DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT IS

FAST AND IMPRESSIVE...AND MAY INDUCE RAPID ROAD FREEZING AND ICING

EVEN IN THE DRY SLOT EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. LATER IN THE

EVENING...SECONDARY PV WRAPS SOUTHEASTWARD /ACCOMPANIED BY LOW

LEVEL WIND MAX MENTIONED ABOVE/ AND SPREADS GOOD FORCING FOR UVM

INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 WHERE SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ABUNDANT.

SEE A NICE LITTLE STRIPE OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS WCNTL INTO

CNTL OH...SO DECIDED TO BE SIMPLE AND COMBINE THE THREATS OF

STRONG WINDS/SNOW/REDUCED VISIBILITIES/ICY ROADS INTO A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW AMOUNTS WON/T BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT COMING

OUT OF A LONG TERM WARM PERIOD...PAVEMENT SUBSURFACES ARE

ATYPICALLY WARM. WITH VERY COLD AIR AND PERSISTENT SNOW

SHOWERS/STRONG WINDS REMOVING THIS WARMTH FROM THE SKIN SURFACE OF

THE PAVEMENT...SETUP IS SUCH THAT ROADS COULD BECOME EXTREMELY

SLIPPERY IN THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA ESP LATER THURS NIGHT INTO

MUCH OF FRIDAY WHERE SNOW IS PERSISTENT. COMBINED WITH RAPID VSBY

CHANGES IN SNOW SHOWERS...THESE SITUATIONS CAN BE SNEAKY-

DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE MILD WINTER THUS FAR. DON/T

SEE A SIGNAL IN THE DATA FOR SNOW RATIOS AS DIFFERENT THAN CLIM0 -

MUCH OF LIFT/SATURATIONS REMAINS BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES

AND COBB RATIOS FROM A WEALTH OF SOURCES ARE ALL FROM 8:1 TO 11:1

FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN WINTER WX ADVISORY

CONDITIONS IN AROUND CMH METRO...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO GET CUTE AT

THIS MOMENT AND TRY TO BE TOO FINE GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES.

ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS IN THE SOUTH NOT EXPECTED TO

SEE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH SNOW FOR TRAVEL ISSUES...BUT EVEN IN THESE

AREAS CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF SLIPPERY TRAVEL AS MAIN WAVE

TRAVERSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE

STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPS AND WARM ROAD SURFACES CAUSING

SLIPPERY TRAVEL. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANSION OF

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IF SNOW SHOWERS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD OR

CONTAIN HEAVIER RATES THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE FRIDAY EVENING AS WINDS DECREASE AND

SYSTEM PULLS OUT.

[JayPSU]

All quiet in this thread? Maybe I'm so snow deprived that a couple inches has me excited, but I'm stoked! 2-3" tonight/tomorrow, and perhaps more just after Christmas. It's been a very long time since we've had snow on the ground for Christmas...I'm pumped!

[buckeye]

All quiet in this thread? Maybe I'm so snow deprived that a couple inches has me excited, but I'm stoked! 2-3" tonight/tomorrow, and perhaps more just after Christmas. It's been a very long time since we've had snow on the ground for Christmas...I'm pumped!

At this point a whitened ground is a victory....so yes I agree, I'm keeping it real.

That aside, and also keeping it real, is the fact that 2-3" of wrap-around is a TALL order. That would be very unusual. More typical you would expect the rain to end, gusty west winds and falling temps, (in the dryslot), followed by intermittent and scattered snowshowers with a dusting. That's my expectation, if the advisory stuff verifies than it'll be a great surprise.

As far as next week, gfs is back to coming really close to looking good for us again. And it's only in the minor-fantasy range, (144-156 hrs)

EDIT: ALL I WANT FOR XMAS IS THE 12/20/12 12Z GFS

[Steve]

I agree with buckeye...very skeptical when it comes to wrap around snows..never works out well for us!!

[pondo1000]

At this point a whitened ground is a victory....so yes I agree, I'm keeping it real.

That aside, and also keeping it real, is the fact that 2-3" of wrap-around is a TALL order. That would be very unusual. More typical you would expect the rain to end, gusty west winds and falling temps, (in the dryslot), followed by intermittent and scattered snowshowers with a dusting. That's my expectation, if the advisory stuff verifies than it'll be a great surprise.

As far as next week, gfs is back to coming really close to looking good for us again. And it's only in the minor-fantasy range, (144-156 hrs)

EDIT: ALL I WANT FOR XMAS IS THE 12/20/12 12Z GFS

Man, would that be sweet. Best look in a while hey Buck? If only this was 5 days out..........

[buckeye]

Man, would that be sweet. Best look in a while hey Buck? If only this was 5 days out..........

Yea, 144 isn't that too crazy far out...but then again it's the gfs and it's the 15th different solution for the same storm thus far. Either way models are hellbent on bringing a storm somewhere towards the OV on the 26th...so we got that going for us.

I'll feel better when the euro is showing the potential inside 120 hrs.

[buckeye]

I agree with buckeye...very skeptical when it comes to wrap around snows..never works out well for us!!

at this point, just sit back and check radar every once in awhile. I'm not sure if it was forecasted, but I was surprised to see it's still raining well west of Chicago.

[wxdudemike]

Yea, 144 isn't that too crazy far out...but then again it's the gfs and it's the 15th different solution for the same storm thus far. Either way models are hellbent on bringing a storm somewhere towards the OV on the 26th...so we got that going for us.

I'll feel better when the euro is showing the potential inside 120 hrs.

The 0z Euro track looked great, but had very low QPF for some reason.

Wondering if we could squeeze out a last minute to change to light snow Monday night for a light dusting Christmas morning? Probably just wishful thinking