wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 euro says.... what clipper? Like dilly said above....pretty boring stretch ahead. At this point I'd rather it be boring with a torch than boring with cold. The 12z Euro has 0.17" of QPF all snow this weekend. Granted it is extended out over about 24 hours, but better than nothing. It looks like a weak clipper could also bring some snow Thursday night, although models are focusing that a bit south of Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Could be a fun morning tomorrow....With the impressive low level wind fields, I think very strong (isolated damaging 60+) wind gusts are possible in Columbus with the line of showers/embedded storms. Threat is much lower than to our west, but I definitely don't think it is zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Not much on tap for the next two weeks. Beginning to look like another clunker of a winter. Seems like especially this winter that the systems we catch way out in the future end up not being so good for us, so that may not be such a bad thing to have models looking boring at this point. With the MJO heading towards phase 8, I could see us cashing in a bit. Might be more in the form of clippers, but hey better than nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Seems like especially this winter that the systems we catch way out in the future end up not being so good for us, so that may not be such a bad thing to have models looking boring at this point. With the MJO heading towards phase 8, I could see us cashing in a bit. Might be more in the form of clippers, but hey better than nothing! Id rather have nothing and warm than cold and 1 or 2 inches here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Marginal severe threat for southern part of the state through the morning hours...QLCS maintaining itself decently with 55+ dew points over much of southern OH and a very strong LLJ...will probably loose some organization as it translates east of the better instability but any stronger line segments left over will have the chance to bring down marginally severe gusts as all of that pushes through this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 gfs looked impressive for central ohio over the next 6 days....nothing singularly heavy, but very long duration light snows. Will be interesting to see 12z snowtotals thru hrs 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 not bad....10" of snow over the next 6 days. Reminds me of a system back in the early 90's. It was late winter and an upper level low parked itself over MI and it snowed (lightly but continuously) for 3 days (over a weekend), by sunday night we had gotten about 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 not bad....10" of snow over the next 6 days. Reminds me of a system back in the early 90's. It was late winter and an upper level low parked itself over MI and it snowed continuously for 3 days (over a weekend), by sunday night we had gotten about 9". I will take this all day! Fingers crossed. I have said for 2 years now that I have missed the clipper train! Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I will take this all day! Fingers crossed. I have said for 2 years now that I have missed the clipper train! Bring it! yea, absolutely especially since the warm up is still on schedule after midweek next week. I'm sure the gfs is a bit overdone to say the least, but cut it in half and you're still looking at 4 or 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 yea, absolutely especially since the warm up is still on schedule after midweek next week. I'm sure the gfs is a bit overdone to say the least, but cut it in half and you're still looking at 4 or 5" Yeah, I think a general 3-6 seems reasonable.The one (I think it is Mon-Tues) looks most interesting. The warm up so far on the GFS seems a little less harsh then what we saw this week, but that can change. Maybe another re-load after mid-month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Yeah, I think a general 3-6 seems reasonable.The one (I think it is Mon-Tues) looks most interesting. The warm up so far on the GFS seems a little less harsh then what we saw this week, but that can change. Maybe another re-load after mid-month? I agree, mon/tues has my interest for something 'more' substantial. 12zGGEM is on board as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I agree, mon/tues has my interest for something 'more' substantial. 12zGGEM is on board as well. We'll see what you know whoeuro has to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 not bad....10" of snow over the next 6 days. Reminds me of a system back in the early 90's. It was late winter and an upper level low parked itself over MI and it snowed (lightly but continuously) for 3 days (over a weekend), by sunday night we had gotten about 9". January 20-24, 1995: 10.2" As for the upcoming week, it should push Columbus close to the seasonal snowfall average as we're already past the 20" mark. Seems a safe bet that the winter ends up with above normal snowfall. Even with the warmer temps, it's a huge improvemet over last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 January 20-24, 1995: 10.2" As for the upcoming week, it should push Columbus close to the seasonal snowfall average as we're already past the 20" mark. Seems a safe bet that the winter ends up with above normal snowfall. Even with the warmer temps, it's a huge improvemet over last winter. jbcmh da man! I knew you'd come thru with the info on that. I wasn't 100% sure if my memory served me correctly but pretty close...although it wasn't 'early' 90's and I was about an inch short. But yes, that was an interesting way to pick up 10" of snow....and now we know it's possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 1995 was actually from a developing low pressure system that hung around. This is just impluses pushing around the northern jet as it retreats back up into Canada over the next week. From what I recall it was a closed upper low over the great lakes that just sat and spun. You are correct, unlike the upcoming pattern it was not a parade of clippers. edit: actually looking at the maps during that timeframe, it was an upper low over eastern greatlakes that slowly migrated into upstate NY and eventually opened up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I agree, mon/tues has my interest for something 'more' substantial. 12zGGEM is on board as well. Mon/ Tues is progged to go to my north atm....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 gotta love these kind of days.... one minute bright sunshine, the next it's a whiteout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I've been driving around the last couple hours between New Albany and Westerville and what an odd afternoon! One minute you're in a raging blizzard, the next it's a bright sunny day, then back to a blizzard, then back to sunny. Just now I had a raging blizzard AND a VERY BRIGHT sun out at the same time which made visibility just horrific. It's incredible sight to see such heavy snow illuminated by the bright sun! What an afternoon!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 jbcmh da man! I knew you'd come thru with the info on that. I wasn't 100% sure if my memory served me correctly but pretty close...although it wasn't 'early' 90's and I was about an inch short. But yes, that was an interesting way to pick up 10" of snow....and now we know it's possible You were even right that it occurred over a weekend. Began on a Friday and ended on a Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 nice one as it was coming thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Doesn't look like ILN is buying into the gfs's 10" over the next 5 days scenario. Only mention of accums are 'light' and on Saturday .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...CORE OF COLD AIR WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNINGOF THE PERIOD. WIND CHILL WILL STILL BE A CONCERN EARLY IN THEMORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THEDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE WITH READINGS ONLY GETTINGINTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ANDAHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURESFROM FALLING TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TOSEE SOME RISES LATER IN THE NIGHT.A CLIPPER WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. EXPECT SNOW TODEVELOP IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ITMAY TEMPORARILY TAPER OFF LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENINGBEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE QUICKLY DROPS INBEHIND THE INITIAL SYSTEM. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DURINGTHIS TIME. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FASUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THEAFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSSTHE REGION AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA.DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE IN PLACE SUNDAYNIGHT. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL WORK INTO THE FA MONDAY INTOMONDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILLGENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TODECREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TODROP ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE EAST OFTHE REGION ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THEAREA ON THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 40S.PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FADURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TOAPPROACH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREADTHURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 About an inch here now and still snowing off and on. Hopefully this weekend will add more! And Monday has the potential to be a good snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Nice to return to winter today...saw 0.3" this morning with some nice fluffy snow showers...after that melted we have recoated the ground and have another couple of nice snow showers working this way...maybe will have a half inch to inch on the ground by morning.Saturday into Saturday night looks somewhat interesting...may snow non-stop from Saturday morning to Sunday morning across a good chunk of the state. Saturday some WAA ahead of a weak shortwave and modest mid-level lift should help generate several hours of generally light snow across much of the state. Saturday night a better shot at some mid-level lift as a nice mid-level shortwave/speed max glances Ohio nicely...may see some moderate bursts of snow Saturday night. All in all thanks to duration I'd be shocked if most of us don't see 2"+ Saturday and Saturday night...with local amounts of 4-5" over the 24-30 hour period wherever some better banding can develop...which will push advisory criteria outside of northern Ohio. Ratios look decent with this first clipper (really two small little clippers) which should help.Monday into Tuesday looks potentially more interesting...the GFS is suggesting perhaps another 1-2 punch like we'll see on Saturday...the Euro/Canadian appear to show a more consolidated low pressure. Either way...there may be a hint of southern stream moisture involved and the models are showing the PV consolidating a bit to our northeast, giving the clipper a little more room to amplify as it rounds the base of the trough over the Ohio Valley. Right now some decent mid-level WAA is being shown with this clipper (or clippers) Monday-Tuesday along with some nice divergence thanks to a nice upper level jet streak exiting to the east and another diving in from the northwest. Given this clipper may be a little more intense it may track a little farther than Saturday-Saturday night's clippers...however, decent confluence aloft is still being shown just to our northeast so it shouldn't track so far north that it misses central/southern Ohio completely. The potential is there for several inches again Monday-Tuesday if things come together as currently suggested...the highest risk for bust is far southern and southwestern Ohio right now it appears. Ratios again look like they should be above 10:1...likely closer to 15:1 with the Monday-Tuesday system (or systems if the GFS verifies) assuming it doesn't track too far north...which will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 gotta love these kind of days.... one minute bright sunshine, the next it's a whiteout. I know, I wish these happened more often! About one inch now on campus. Winter weather advisory extended for all ILN counties. Through 4 am LOL better late than never? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Ganahl's forecast for the clippers: 1-2", 1-2", 1-3". Seems a bit conservative but then again he's probably still licking his wounds from that 9" call a few days before last Fridays dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Wow that was a nice squall that just pushed through here...about an inch in 20 minutes. Looks good for light to occasionally moderate snow for a few more hours...may end up with 1.5-2" total by sunrise before the clipper parade begins. Maybe a little more...that 0.9" (just measured quickly) was on top of the 0.2" already down from the light snow ongoing earlier this evening...so already 1.1" on the ground...and saw 0.3" this morning that melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 It looks like we picked @ 2" overnight. Not bad for an event a few days ago looked like a non starter. Hopefully this bodes well for the weekend and early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Ganahl's forecast for the clippers: 1-2", 1-2", 1-3". Seems a bit conservative but then again he's probably still licking his wounds from that 9" call a few days before last Fridays dud. Is that weekend, Mon, Tues? I would lean more towards 2-4 over the weekend, 1-2 Monday (models trending a bit south), and then maybe 1-2 Tuesday. Although if the south trend happens for Tuesday, we could see the higher end of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 GFS is suddenly much less impressive here after this weekend. Hopefully it's an anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 GFS is suddenly much less impressive here after this weekend. Hopefully it's an anomaly. Yep, if I had to 'ala carte' the models, I'd go with the gfs for the weekend and the ggem for mon/tues. I'd pass on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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