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Ohio and surrounding states (Let's talk winter!)


Steve

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Logged 1.3" here last night...widespread 1-2" for everyone tomorrow in the state with locally more northern Ohio with better dynamics from the clipper and locally more near the Ohio River especially eastern portion of the state where some better moisture/WAA may occur as the southern stream system rides by.

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Well we've finally arrived to the day before "the storm around the 25/26th" and it surely is not looking as good as once promised. However, it won't be a non-event.

KCMH reported 0.4" of snow yesterday with a liquid equivalent of 0.02". That is a fairly impressive snow ratio of 20:1. Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be a tad warmer, although not a lot. Max temp in profile method for ratios tmrw (which worked best yesterday) on the GFS actually suggest an avg of 20:1 starting out closer to 23:1 in the late morning. The NAM is lower with an average 17:1 ratio. I feel it might be best to assume a slightly lower ratio tmrw, and thus will go with 18:1 in Columbus.

The GFS and NAM both agree on 15:1 ratio for CVG tomorrow.

For Columbus, Euro/GFS are at 0.15" and NAM is at 0.10". Models were a smidgen too high yesterday (0.02 happened instead of the advertised 0.04 or 0.05") but this is within reasonable random variation over the area. I'll be assuming 0.12-0.14" for CMH.

The NAM and GFS both agree on 0.10 to 0.12" for CVG although the Euro is drier at 0.07".

I will probably also go 1-2 inches therefore for CVG and 2-3 inches for Columbus. I'll have a map out soon...

 

 

And looks like ILN has gone WWA for Columbus.  They are saying 2-3 isolated higher...Kinda stretching criteria but I guess there will be travel impacts.

 

EDIT:  Actually not stretching it, I forgot it got lowered to 3 inches.

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Still trying to figure out why we have a frz. rain advisory..partly sunny here with some blue sky and a temp of 33..my guess is we get zero frozen precip!!!!

Dew points are low and temps are not far from freezing...I'd imagine you'll wet bulb to like 30-31 as the rain moves in this evening and squeak out like 2 hours of freezing rain before warm air overwhelms things.

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Not sure if my weatherbug is working...says temp here in Newark went from 34 to 29 the past hour our so..hmmm

Well we got a decent amount of evap. cooling. Pretty bad freezing rain here on campus....Sidewalks are solid ice, side roads are ice, and trees all have a solid glaze of ice on them. I'd say we have enough to warrant the freezing rain advisory including Franklin county. I suppose it's too late for that now.

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hmmm, rain then cold, then what?

 

maybe a clipper on tap for Saturday?   GFS hinting at an i-70 special, modest clipper.   

 

Yeah not bad.  Looks like a similar amount to Friday with just a touch lower ratios meaning maybe 2-2.5" instead of 3-3.5".

 

This run shows 0.17" total QPF and we actually ended up with 0.19" this past Friday.  Models (except GFS) were too low on precip...

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Yeah not bad.  Looks like a similar amount to Friday with just a touch lower ratios meaning maybe 2-2.5" instead of 3-3.5".

 

This run shows 0.17" total QPF and we actually ended up with 0.19" this past Friday.  Models (except GFS) were too low on precip...

euro says....

 

what clipper? Like dilly said above....pretty boring stretch ahead. At this point I'd rather it be boring with a torch than boring with cold.

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