buckeye Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Interesting that we posted a +5.9 for Dec but over 9 inches above normal on snowfall. Just shows that super cold air isn't always good for snow. true...I have a feeling we're going to find that out to be true again here in a couple of weeks, further evidence showing that brutal cold does not yield snow. I will say it's very unusual for us to have historic cold (like models are showing in the LR) without finding a way to lay down at least a light blanket of snow. Either cold air advection, frontal snow, LES making it this far southeast, or a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 Quite the boring cold and dry pattern coming up!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 Few more days like this I will be ready for spring and storms!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Yeah, this looks to be more of a seasonal return to temps - not the arctic intrusion that was promised. When will the hammer come down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 Yeah, this looks to be more of a seasonal return to temps - not the arctic intrusion that was promised. When will the hammer come down? In the 240 hour fantasy models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The models have brought tomorrow night's wave of low pressure back NW enough to threaten far southeastern OH with a period of mixed precip tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. Other than that, looks relatively dry and seasonably mild until the end of the weekend or early next week when we turn cold. At this point it looks like we will have to hope for a clipper if we want to whiten the ground next week with no significant synoptic snowstorms appearing likely for at least another ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The models have brought tomorrow night's wave of low pressure back NW enough to threaten far southeastern OH with a period of mixed precip tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. Other than that, looks relatively dry and seasonably mild until the end of the weekend or early next week when we turn cold. At this point it looks like we will have to hope for a clipper if we want to whiten the ground next week with no significant synoptic snowstorms appearing likely for at least another ten days. It's pretty rare to go 10 days in winter without precipitation, so I think we'll see an event or two, however small, pop up at some point on the models the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It's pretty rare to go 10 days in winter without precipitation, so I think we'll see an event or two, however small, pop up at some point on the models the next several days. I would normally agree with this statement, but after the drought we went through last year out this way, I'm a little hesitant to make a blanket statement like that. I do realize that it was an anomalous pattern, but the models have continued to show nada and I have a tendency to believe it, at least for the next 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I would normally agree with this statement, but after the drought we went through last year out this way, I'm a little hesitant to make a blanket statement like that. I do realize that it was an anomalous pattern, but the models have continued to show nada and I have a tendency to believe it, at least for the next 7-10 days. Yeah, maybe it's not as sure for you guys out that way, but I don't really feel like most of Ohio's been in a drought for awhile now, and we had a very wet December. And sure enough, it looks like we'll see measurable precipitation tonight, likely in the form of snow. Probably not a lot, but hey, it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It's pretty rare to go 10 days in winter without precipitation, so I think we'll see an event or two, however small, pop up at some point on the models the next several days. I certainly agree we'll see at least a couple shots of light snow over the next week and a half, but nothing huge. Tonight's event looked decent for a time last week before looking dead and buried until yesterday afternoon. But, now the NAM/RAP both suggest measurable precip clipping areas from Cinci to CMH to YNG points south with over half an inch as far northwest as 30 miles into Ohio in the southeastern portion of the state. The GFS is drier and significantly farther south. This should be snow for Cinci and Columbus but there will certainly be a warm layer aloft over a good portion of SE Ohio. This is a really tricky forecast for Athens...most models now support at least a tenth (with the NAM up to .6") of liquid falling tonight with a warm layer aloft, probably big enough even to make it hard for sleet. Surface temps now are at 33 with a dew of 25 with a NE wind and cloudy skies. Could be a situation where it sits at 32 and rains and maybe lightly glazes the trees...a degree or two colder and we could look at up to a quarter inch of zr. We'll see. I expect RLX to issue a winter weather advisory down to the Ohio River adjacent to where PBZ issued there advisory. ILN will probably have to do something as well for their southeastern two rows of counties given the potential for zr to fall in that area tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Hmm the NAM and RAP both seem to be trending farther NW. I'm a little hesitant since the GFS does not play ball even at the late hour of 12z today. The NAM and RAP are higher resolution models though which at this short of a time range could give them an advantage over the GFS. I had flurries for CMH with dusting to 1/2" SE of CMH as of last night. Might be time to re-work that forecast with a shift to the NW. Worth noting, the NAM actually has ZR even in Columbus with between .05 and .01". That isn't huge, but certainly enough to cause major traffic issues with the timing being right before the morning commute. The latest RAP has all snow in CMH with about .17" falling meaning over one inch taking that model verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 the 18z nam actually looks southeast...yet the radar looks crazy nw. I'm assuming a lot of that stuff in IN must be virga?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 the 18z nam actually looks southeast...yet the radar looks crazy nw. I'm assuming a lot of that stuff in IN must be virga?? Yeah, right now it looks like everything in IN is virga. It appears as though precip is reaching the ground however in far southern IL and western KY, with the northern edge of the main batch of precip reaching the ground from where KY/OH/WV meet back southwest towards Nashville. Current trajectories of precip combined with analysis of mid level heights suggests the precip should continue moving NE into OH before turning more ENE due to increased confluence from the eastern lakes through NY into New England. This suggests precip should still graze CVG/ILN/CMH/CAK/YNG with some chances at a couple hundredths of liquid falling a little bit north of that line. An examination of temperature profiles off of the NAM/RAP combined with current mesoanalysis suggests CVG and CMH should remain all snow with perhaps a couple hours of sleet in CVG later this evening before mid level WAA cuts off. This should be like a 1/2"-1" type deal for CVG and CMH with a little more immediately SE of CMH before you start getting into more mixing. Mixing will be very close to CVG so there may not be a max south of there and instead a tapering of snow/sleet amounts. When looking at the expected 700mb and 850mb theta-e's (respectively) later this evening off of the RAP shows a good theta-e graditent across much of southern Ohio which suggests good mid level deformation/frontogenesis will be in place. The models also bring the northeastern portion of a 50-60kt 700mb jet streak over southeastern OH from CVG/CMH/YNG points south which in combination with a the region being in the right-entrance portion of a 200+kt upper level jet streak over the eastern lakes and New England should ensure decent precipitation rates over far southeastern OH. Based on placement of these factors and blending modeled QPF suggests the likelihood of .25-.5" of liquid equivalent falling SE of a Maysville to Chillicothe to the northern WV panhandle line with over half an inch quite possible near the Ohio River in the eastern half of the state. With much of Ohio north of the river sitting below 35 degrees with dews in the lower to middle 20's as night falls with a N-NE flow (more northerly than easterly for sure) will be hard to see temperatures creep up above freezing north/west of the river as the more northerly wind will limit downsloping/warming. Temperature profiles support mainly liquid where the heavier QPF falls after perhaps ip/wet snow to start so this could mean a good area sees .1-.25" of ice accretion tonight in southeastern Ohio. Given the warm temps recently it remains to be seen how much can stick to roads but slick spots appear likely. Near the Ohio river where QPF values are currently near half an inch over .25" of accretion may occur which may result in local tree/power line damage although at this time this doesn't appear to be quite enough zr to create more significant tree/power line issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looking at radar, this looks to completely miss the I-70 corridor and generally stay south and east of 71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looking at radar, this looks to completely miss the I-70 corridor and generally stay south and east of 71. Yeah, killer gradient on the NW side that is not budging. Not missing Cincinnati and Columbus by much, but it looks like all or nothing. Have been seeing zr/ip mixed here since about 7...pavement is still wet but trees and cars are lightly glazed...sitting right at 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Nothing reaching the ground here in SE Indiana....sigh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I've been out running errands all evening and have not seen one flake in Columbus or Newark. And it doesn't look like we will, judging from the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Forecast fail. I did a last minute cave to the NAM and RAP and should have stuck with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah my forecast will bust for Cinci/CMH although thankfully I didn't go more than 1/2-1" of snow.The last push of moisture may clip Columbus and especially Cincinnati although it will be tough to accumulate since it will be quick hitting and fairly light. Moderate precip continues here and it has been all liquid for the past hour or so. Accretion is occurring but thus far hasn't been very efficient with only 0.05-0.09" (estimate) on elevated surfaces. Temp is down to 31 and precip will lighten up in about two hours so accretion may occur thereafter a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm going to the Annual Winter Hike in Hocking county (Old Man's & Ash Caves) on the 19th: http://www.hockinghills.com/winter_hike.html Looks like we're going to loose our entire snow pack (including the piles) and all of the ice formations in the caves by then with the big warm up to near 60 and heavy rain this coming weekend. Cold weather does look like it will reture before the winter hike weekend, but will probably be too little too late by then! Well after the temps hit the mid 60s last weekend with heavy rain, there will be no ice formations again this year (let alone snow) at the annual winter hike! Look how it used to be: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=hocking+hills+annual+winter+hike&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.&bvm=bv.41018144,d.dmQ&biw=1676&bih=832&wrapid=tlif135843203633410&um=1&ie=UTF-8&tbm=isch&source=og&sa=N&tab=wi&ei=Lgf4ULLIB6jh0wGrxYCoAQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Had light snow and snow showers in the 5 day outlook..wake up this morning and its all gone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 Lookout...artic air for three days..lock it in!..! What a boring pattern we have...was suppose to be a lock until Feb..well so much that...cold til Wednesday..then rain Thursday..you got to be kidding!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Well, surprise, surprise! 00z Gfs now hitting OV with major snow on 25th and 26th instead of rain! I know it's a long way off but at least we can enjoy it while it lasts. Buffy has Cincy getting 8" of all snow at 10:1 ratio. This model run is much more aggressive w/ the cold air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Lookout...artic air for three days..lock it in!..! What a boring pattern we have...was suppose to be a lock until Feb..well so much that...cold til Wednesday..then rain Thursday..you got to be kidding!!! Euro has a solid snow storm now for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 Euro has a solid snow storm now for us. It is 6 days out still..if its still there Monday,then my interest will peak a bit!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 Not impressed by this setup at all. Upper level trough is to far west and poor data intake is making current output incorrect imo. WAA warming should be impressive. Suppose to be not above 32 all next week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Well, at least we have something to watch - even if it is suppressed or turns into a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 ILN this afternoon says models might be overdeveloping the low heading towards an arctic air mass. They keep Columbus all snow somehow with a track near I-70... LOU office also thinks it may trend back south a bit but said they did trend the forecast in the direction of today's northern solutions, but not all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Local forecast calling for snow thurs..thurs night and Friday..already 70 percent chance thur night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 another wintry week here in central ohio. Snowshowers this morning.....maybe a dusting to an inch on thurs...and then something more significant, (clipper-esque), on friday? Potential is there for us to hit 20+" for the season so far by this time next week. Even if this storm late week doens't pan out perfectly for us, we've been an island of decent winter wx in the middle of an otherwise craptastic winter for the region as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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