Ohio and surrounding states (Let's talk winter!)

[jbcmh81]

What the main "ground conditions" you are taking into account, if I may ask?

I take quite a few actually, from summer mean to October precip to freezing dates and early snowfall. I use global indices as well, such as NAO, AO, PDO and ENSO.

[jbcmh81]

So this thread seems pretty quiet, so I'm just going to throw out some monthly data for November in Columbus.

Cold

Top 10 Coldest Novembers

1. 1880: 32.8

2. 1976: 33.9

3. 1967: 36.6

4. 1951: 36.7

5. 1910: 37.0

6. 1950: 37.1

7. 1996: 37.4

8. 1995: 37.7

9. 1892, 1903, 1911, 1936: 38.3

10. 1901: 38.6

Top 10 Coldest November Highs

1. 1930: 12

2. 1880: 15

3. 1929: 16

4. 1958: 19

5. 1950, 1976: 20

6. 1887, 1937: 22

7. 1893, 1933, 1938, 1964: 24

8. 1889, 1891, 1896, 1900, 1911, 1955, 1970, 1977: 25

9. 1892, 1916, 1936: 26

10. 1879, 1905, 1913, 1914, 1924, 1925, 1956, 1991: 27

Top 10 Coldest November Lows

1. 1880: -5

2. 1958: -4

3. 1929: 1

4. 1887, 1930: 3

5. 1950, 1976: 5

6. 1955, 1956: 9

7. 1914, 1952, 1964: 11

8. 1883, 1903, 1938, 1959, 1970, 1986: 12

9. 1891, 1933, 1951, 1970: 13

10. 1893, 1898, 1911, 1947, 1981, 1991, 2005: 14

Top 5 Novembers with Most Highs 32 or Below

1. 1880, 1903: 11

2. 1898, 1950, 1976: 6

3. 1887, 1891, 1951: 5

4. 1893, 1926, 1929, 1930, 1938, 1971: 4

5. 1892, 1917, 1924, 1937, 1955, 1958, 1964, 1969, 1970, 2008: 3

Top 5 Novembers with Most Lows 32 or Below

1. 1976: 26

2. 1951, 1995: 21

3. 1910, 1936, 1955, 1959, 1981: 20

4. 1950, 1961, 1971, 1996: 19

5. 1880, 1886, 1901, 1911, 1943, 1969, 1984: 18

[jbcmh81]

November Heat

Top 10 Warmest Novembers

1. 1931: 51.4

2. 1902: 49.8

3. 1909, 2001: 49.6

4. 2011: 48.7

5. 1985, 1994: 48.2

6. 1946: 48.1

7. 2009: 47.8

8. 1987: 47.6

9. 1975, 1999: 47.5

10. 2003: 47.2

Top 5 Warmest November Highs

1. 1950, 1987: 80

2. 1961: 79

3. 1933, 1938: 78

4. 1895, 1956, 1968, 1975, 1982, 2003: 77

5. 1946, 1958, 1977, 1999: 76

Top 5 Warmest November Lows

1. 1946: 63

2. 1958, 1977, 1985: 61

3. 1879, 1929, 1931, 1942, 1974, 1982, 1990: 60

4. 1900, 1950, 1955, 1975, 1993, 2005: 59

5. 1896, 1924, 1927, 1936, 1938, 1945, 1948, 1994, 2007: 58

Top 5 Novembers with Most Highs 70 and Above

1. 1931, 1938, 1964: 8

2. 1975: 7

3. 2008: 6

4. 1879, 1927, 1953, 1956, 1977, 1987, 1990: 5

5. 1893, 1896, 1902, 1934, 1945, 1978, 1994, 2003, 2005: 4

[Steve]

We need some weather to follow..looks like there may be chances in a week or so!!

[jbcmh81]

And November Precipitation for Columbus...

Top 10 Wettest Novembers

1. 1985: 10.67"

2. 1897: 8.54"

3. 1927: 6.19"

4. 1881: 6.10"

5. 1921: 5.50"

6. 1891: 5.44"

7. 1950: 5.40"

8. 1973: 5.37"

9. 1982: 5.19"

10. 1948: 5.07"

Top 10 Driest Novembers

1. 1904, 1917: 0.18"

2. 2009: 0.42"

3. 1901: 0.59"

4. 1976: 0.60"

5. 1910: 0.79"

6. 1963: 0.80"

7. 1908: 0.84"

8. 1941: 0.86"

9. 1934: 0.92"

10. 1956: 0.97"

Top 10 Greatest Daily Precipitation Totals for November

1. 1881: 2.81"

2. 1985: 2.38"

3. 1880, 1895: 1.91"

4. 1936: 1.86"

5. 1955: 1.82"

6. 1891: 1.79"

7. 1927: 1.77"

8. 2010: 1.76"

9. 1993: 1.61"

10. 1961, 2001: 1.58"

Top 10 Snowiest Novembers

1. 1950: 15.2"

2. 1880: 12.7"

3. 1966: 10.4"

4. 1920: 8.2"

5. 1913: 7.5"

6. 1891: 7.1"

7. 1886: 6.9"

8. 1967: 6.5"

9. 1892, 1972: 6.3"

10. 1958: 6.2"

Top 10 Daily November Snowfalls

1. 1950: 7.5"

2. 1958: 6.2"

3. 1891: 5.5"

4. 1900: 5.0"

5. 1880: 4.8"

6. 1966: 4.7"

7. 1920: 4.5"

8. 1955: 4.1"

9. 1967, 1972: 4.0"

10. 1936: 3.5"

[jbcmh81]

And now decadal averages for Columbus.

1870s only include 1878 and 1879, and the 2010s, of course, only run through 2011.

November Mean

2010s: 46.2

2000s: 45.1

1990s: 43.2

1980s: 43.5

1970s: 42.7

1960s: 42.2

1950s: 41.3

1940s: 43.9

1930s: 42.4

1920s: 42.4

1910s: 41.8

1900s: 42.7

1890s: 41.7

1880s: 41.2

1870s: 43.5

Avg Coldest November Daily High

2010s: 39

2000s: 35.6

1990s: 35.7

1980s: 32.8

1970s: 31.0

1960s: 31.4

1950s: 28.2

1940s: 34.2

1930s: 28.3

1920s: 29.5

1910s: 29.1

1900s: 32.8

1890s: 29.3

1880s: 28.8

1870s: 35.0

Avg Coldest Daily November Low

2010s: 22.5

2000s: 21.2

1990s: 21.3

1980s: 18.3

1970s: 17.5

1960s: 18.7

1950s: 11.7

1940s: 20.6

1930s: 17.5

1920s: 19.7

1910s: 18.5

1900s: 20.9

1890s: 17.6

1880s: 14.9

1870s: 21.5

Avg # of 32 or Below November Highs

2010s: 0

2000s: 0.8

1990s: 0.3

1980s: 0.8

1970s: 1.6

1960s: 1.3

1950s: 2.4

1940s: 0.6

1930s: 1.8

1920s: 1.8

1910s: 1.2

1900s: 1.2

1890s: 2.4

1880s: 2.3

1870s: 0.5

Avg # of 32 or Below November Lows

2010s: 8.5

2000s: 9.9

1990s: 13.0

1980s: 12.6

1970s: 13.7

1960s: 14.8

1950s: 16.2

1940s: 10.8

1930s: 12.3

1920s: 11.2

1910s: 13.0

1900s: 13.5

1890s: 13.3

1880s: 13.1

1870s: 11.5

Avg Warmest November High

2010s: 71.0

2000s: 70.9

1990s: 70.3

1980s: 73.0

1970s: 69.8

1960s: 69.9

1950s: 73.9

1940s: 72.2

1930s: 71.9

1920s: 68.0

1910s: 69.5

1900s: 68.5

1890s: 68.9

1880s: 69.5

1870s: 68.5

Avg Warmest Daily November Low

2010s: 57.0

2000s: 54.3

1990s: 54.7

1980s: 53.4

1970s: 54.1

1960s: 51.9

1950s: 53.9

1940s: 56.0

1930s: 54.7

1920s: 53.2

1910s: 50.7

1900s: 49.7

1890s: 50.8

1880s: 52.2

1870s: 55.0

Avg November Precipitation

2010s: 4.56"

2000s: 2.64"

1990s: 2.73"

1980s: 3.99"

1970s: 2.92"

1960s: 2.72"

1950s: 2.63"

1940s: 2.44"

1930s: 1.88"

1920s: 3.25"

1910s: 2.03"

1900s: 1.76"

1890s: 3.51"

1880s: 3.44"

1870s: 3.29"

Avg November Snowfall

2010s: 0

2000s: 1.0"

1990s: 1.2"

1980s: 0.7"

1970s: 2.0"

1960s: 2.6"

1950s: 4.2"

1940s: 0.5"

1930s: 2.3"

1920s: 2.7"

1910s: 2.1"

1900s: 1.8"

1890s: 2.5"

1880s: 3.2"

1870s: 0.3"

[Steve]

Do we actually have something to track..just watched TWC.taking the Low tuesday-Wed through Tennesse..from Texas,Ark area...

[Steve]

Flurries flying this morning!!

[buckeye]

Definitely looks Christmassy out this morning...upper 20's and snow showers.

Not sure if you guys follow Ganahl, but about a week ago he made a FB post and said the jet stream would be dipping south of us through the beginning of Dec with 3 opportunities for accumulating snow. He also is a big believer that the beginning of December foretells the upcoming winter....and therefore proclaimed a harsh winter ahead.

ummm, oops?

[Steve]

Hey why the oops...are we not suppose to Stay below normal?

[buckeye]

Hey why the oops...are we not suppose to Stay below normal?

60 degrees coming up Monday....

[Steve]

Yeah..very boring pattern we are In..no snow or cold for the foreseeable future..

[jbcmh81]

Luckily there is pretty much zero correlation between early December and winter.

[Steve]

Hopefully we can get a white Christmas!!

[Steve]

Hopefully we can get a white Christmas!!

[Steve]

Is to much to ask for a little snow so we can take a wagon ride through the snow to cut down a Christmas tree?

[wxdudemike]

Finally posted my full winter forecast a few days ago. Been busy with the end of the semester, but gotta get it out! I'm banking on a -AO, but I think quite a few factors are looking good for it.

http://www.examiner.com/article/columbus-winter-forecast-2012-2013

[buckeye]

Definitely looks Christmassy out this morning...upper 20's and snow showers.

Not sure if you guys follow Ganahl, but about a week ago he made a FB post and said the jet stream would be dipping south of us through the beginning of Dec with 3 opportunities for accumulating snow. He also is a big believer that the beginning of December foretells the upcoming winter....and therefore proclaimed a harsh winter ahead.

ummm, oops?

Ganahl FB update

Jym Ganahl

Ugly weather pattern unfolding and I hope this is not the pattern for winter, although jet stream usually sets up for the season for the first week in December...and this one would mean a wet and rainy winter pattern with brief cold snaps behind systems...for now rain and rain into next week with 1-3 inches of rain and highs in the 50s for 4 days.

[jbcmh81]

Ganahl FB update

Jym Ganahl

Ugly weather pattern unfolding and I hope this is not the pattern for winter, although jet stream usually sets up for the season for the first week in December...and this one would mean a wet and rainy winter pattern with brief cold snaps behind systems...for now rain and rain into next week with 1-3 inches of rain and highs in the 50s for 4 days.

I actually went through the first week of December and tried to find some correlation to winter. There really isn't much of one at all. You had some very warm weeks that preceeded cold winters and vice versa. It has more correlation for December than winter.

[buckeye]

I actually went through the first week of December and tried to find some correlation to winter. There really isn't much of one at all. You had some very warm weeks that preceeded cold winters and vice versa. It has more correlation for December than winter.

Yea I agree, Ganahl says this every year too. I don't know where he comes up with it. Biggest knock down of that theory has to be Dec'89. Brutal cold followed by an epic turnaround to mild in Jan and Feb.

[buckeye]

Since real weather will not save this thread from dropping into oblivion....I thought why not throw in the fantasy stuff like a 240hr euro solution showing a 987 low over Pittsburgh.

***NOTE: Fantasy expires 1:45am 12/10/12***

until then, enjoy it, my fellow Ohioans.

[dilly84]

Well at least snow is still in the long range for Christmas Eve and Christmas.

[Steve]

I really don't put much stock in our local forecaster Jym Ganal anymore,but he mentioned a pattern change the week of Christmas,with a couple chances for snow before Christmas...we shall see!!

[vespasian70]

I really don't put much stock in our local forecaster Jym Ganal anymore,but he mentioned a pattern change the week of Christmas,with a couple chances for snow before Christmas...we shall see!!

Are you for team Nunnally? LOL

I hope Jym is right...after last winter's disaster and the slow start so far this year, I'm about to plan a Christmas Eve backyard BBQ.

[buckeye]

Ganahl bounces around worse than I do....but unlike me, it IS his day job. Before Thanksgiving he was howling about the three accumulating snow chances in the beginning of Dec., When it became evident that idea was going to crash and burn, he complained that the mild start to December could foretell the coming winter.

So now he's bullish again from here thru xmas. Fantastic!

[buckeye]

Are you for team Nunnally? LOL

I hope Jym is right...after last winter's disaster and the slow start so far this year, I'm about to plan a Christmas Eve backyard BBQ.

Nunnally is a script reader and Roker wannabe. He knows as much about weather as a 7th grade life science teacher.

[vespasian70]

Nunnally is a script reader and Roker wannabe.

I wonder if that was the context of the slanderous libel Ganahl was accused of spreading about Bob "mixed bag" Nunnally?

A true thought which ruffled his feathers. lol

[buckeye]

I wonder if that was the context of the slanderous libel Ganahl was accused of spreading about Bob "mixed bag" Nunnally?

A true thought which ruffled his feathers. lol

Hadn't heard this so I looked it up. Wow, wonder what Ganahl said. Does Nunnally still work channel4, that would be awkward.

http://www.mediabistro.com/tvspy/wcmhs-bob-nunnally-files-libel-lawsuit-against-fellow-meteorologist-jym-ganahl_b69409

Columbus, Lawsuits, Weather

WCMH’s Bob Nunnally Files Libel Lawsuit Against Fellow Meteorologist Jym Ganahl

By Merrill Knox on November 14, 2012 10:35 AM

WCMH meteorologist Bob Nunnally (left) has filed a libel lawsuit against Jym Ganahl (right), the station’s chief meteorologist, in Franklin County Common Pleas Court.

The Columbus Dispatch reports the complaint was filed on November 5 and alleges that Ganahl and “an unknown individual or individuals” made false statements that hurt Nunnally professionally and caused him to be exposed to “ridicule, hatred or contempt.”

Attorneys for both parties would not detail what was allegedly said. The suit seeks damages of more than $25,000.

Ganahl has worked at the Columbus NBC affiliate since 1979, appearing on the 5, 6 and 11 p.m. newscasts. Nunnally is the station’s morning meteorologist.

The case was randomly assigned to Judge Daniel Hogan, who subsequently recused himself because he is married to Gail Hogan, an anchor at WCMH.

[Steve]

I know its 8 days out..but its not 10 or 15...some forecast are saying snow for our neck,of tbe woods for next Thursday!

[Nic]

Hadn't heard this so I looked it up. Wow, wonder what Ganahl said. Does Nunnally still work channel4, that would be awkward.

http://www.mediabist...m-ganahl_b69409

Columbus, Lawsuits, Weather

WCMH’s Bob Nunnally Files Libel Lawsuit Against Fellow Meteorologist Jym Ganahl

By Merrill Knox on November 14, 2012 10:35 AM

WCMH meteorologist Bob Nunnally (left) has filed a libel lawsuit against Jym Ganahl (right), the station’s chief meteorologist, in Franklin County Common Pleas Court.

The Columbus Dispatch reports the complaint was filed on November 5 and alleges that Ganahl and “an unknown individual or individuals” made false statements that hurt Nunnally professionally and caused him to be exposed to “ridicule, hatred or contempt.”

Attorneys for both parties would not detail what was allegedly said. The suit seeks damages of more than $25,000.

Ganahl has worked at the Columbus NBC affiliate since 1979, appearing on the 5, 6 and 11 p.m. newscasts. Nunnally is the station’s morning meteorologist.

The case was randomly assigned to Judge Daniel Hogan, who subsequently recused himself because he is married to Gail Hogan, an anchor at WCMH.

What the heck did he say that cost Bob Nunnally 25,000 dollars? lol