Ohio and surrounding states (Let's talk winter!)

[jbcmh81]

Heavy snow and 1/4 mile visibility at the airport as of 1pm. 0.13" of precip the last hour, all snow, and the temp has fallen to 32.

The radar is looking a lot more scattered right now. Is the transfer occurring quickly?

[extremewx52]

Heavy snow and 1/4 mile visibility at the airport as of 1pm. 0.13" of precip the last hour, all snow, and the temp has fallen to 32.

The radar is looking a lot more scattered right now. Is the transfer occurring quickly?

I noticed the same thing. I imagine that is evidence of the transfer beginning to occur. We still have showers building in from the south which should at least keep snow around. Intensity will need to be monitored closely though. Parameters still favorable for heavy snowfall through at least 5 pm.

[dilly84]

Nothing here. Game over. I hung on for a while, but sometimes models and what's obvious are two different things. It's Ohio. Its typical. On to the next.

[extremewx52]

An additional thought could be since temps are dropping aloft, the snowflakes are becoming more dry in nature. This would reduce reflectivity but not necessarily reduce snowfall rate.

[jbcmh81]

I noticed the same thing. I imagine that is evidence of the transfer beginning to occur. We still have showers building in from the south which should at least keep snow around. Intensity will need to be monitored closely though. Parameters still favorable for heavy snowfall through at least 5 pm.

Yeah, it does appear that the southern returns are filling in a bit. Also, it looks like the northern snow is pinching a bit and may be trying to consolidate a line along and north of 70. I can see the southern returns forming a solid line that swings through this afternoon and may just pivot through the area instead of moving past it.

[extremewx52]

Yeah, it does appear that the southern returns are filling in a bit. Also, it looks like the northern snow is pinching a bit and may be trying to consolidate a line along and north of 70. I can see the southern returns forming a solid line that swings through this afternoon and may just pivot through the area instead of moving past it.

Check out 16Z ncep RAP. Has entire dry slot filling in and moderate snow still at 5 pm.

[dilly84]

Check out 16Z ncep RAP. Has entire dry slot filling in and moderate snow still at 5 pm.

Radar is dead on. That little dryslot over me? Yea I've had zilch in over an hour. Steve? I'm pretty sure at the end of the day it will have well underperformed. Although I haven't checked the low pressure, sure seems like maybe it was just nw of the models.

[buckeye]

Of course I had to run out and do some errands I love driving in this stuff

Still snowing nicely.... I think as the transfer occurs and this starts it's eastward trek, we look more to the west/nw for our snowfall to come in...vs. south. of the advantages to being close to the center of circulation is t

[jbcmh81]

Nothing here. Game over. I hung on for a while, but sometimes models and what's obvious are two different things. It's Ohio. Its typical. On to the next.

I'm confused about your reaction.

On December 18th, you said about this winter:

Calling it. Many will say I am crazy. I'm going to just face defeat, admit my winter forecast a bust and call winter cancel for most of Ohio.. I agree with Buckeye on the pattern setting up which is cold and dry, back to warm and rainy. Etc. Won't matter in 3 days though wall it? Lol.

On December 23rd, you said about this storm:

Towel thrown. Euro comes in warmer for central Ohio. It's officially a nw trend.

So yeah, not sure why you're getting all upset. You cancelled this storm and the entire winter before they both even started. If anything, you should not be disappointed whatsoever. Isn't this what you were expecting?

[dilly84]

I'm confused about your reaction.

On December 18th, you said about this winter:

Calling it. Many will say I am crazy. I'm going to just face defeat, admit my winter forecast a bust and call winter cancel for most of Ohio.. I agree with Buckeye on the pattern setting up which is cold and dry, back to warm and rainy. Etc. Won't matter in 3 days though wall it? Lol.

On December 23rd, you said about this storm:

Towel thrown. Euro comes in warmer for central Ohio. It's officially a nw trend.

So yeah, not sure why you're getting all upset. You cancelled this storm and the entire winter before they both even started. If anything, you should not be disappointed whatsoever. Isn't this what you were expecting?

Yep. Sure was. Sometimes you gotta curse yourself to have a chance. I said "my plan is working brilliantly" just because I made a statement(which is so far correct) doesn't mean I can't be disappointed when models show a historical type storm.. Fact is, I am a lover of only one type of weather. Snow. And when you get a perfect setup. A perfect low location and still fight warm air and dry slotting.. Yes it gets old. So yes, I do expect this winter to be similar to last now. My early call in Oct was a snowier than normal with temps near normal. But things change. This proves Central Ohio sucks in the way of storms. Even with a perfect storm track, we still get shafted.

With that being said. Regardless of predictions etc, I'm still a snow weenie at heart and when the prospects of a big winter storm comes along I get excited. Is that okay sir? It's not my fault that the one time I want white stuff blowing all over my face it never happens lol.

[extremewx52]

Looks like a lull for a little while but precip shield really expanding along the Ohio river. Would be nice if this can lift and set up a nice secondary deformation band along the I70 corridor.

[ArmyGreens]

I was in W Michigan for Christmas and growing up there you always had snow on the ground either from storms or lake effect. Right now there is nothing but bare ground all up and down the lake shore. So for me to come back home and see 4-6 the next day makes me extremely happy considering how the past winter finished. And like Buckeye I "had" to make a run to the store in order to brush up on my drifting skills on the roads.

[buckeye]

Looks like a lull for a little while but precip shield really expanding along the Ohio river. Would be nice if this can lift and set up a nice secondary deformation band along the I70 corridor.

a lot of the short range models are very generous for additional snowfall through the evening. Definitely looks like we'll get into a band after the lull ,actually coming in from the west.

[dilly84]

a lot of the short range models are very generous for additional snowfall through the evening. Definitely looks like we'll get into a band after the lull ,actually coming in from the west.

I'm mobile. Post pics please. Would like to see what the hrrr shows for here. Also sorry for using a perverted one-liner. I know that's your thing haha.

[dilly84]

Looks like a lull for a little while but precip shield really expanding along the Ohio river. Would be nice if this can lift and set up a nice secondary deformation band along the I70 corridor.

Any chance this thing stalls for a period during its transfer east? Seems to happen sometimes.

[jbcmh81]

Yep. Sure was. Sometimes you gotta curse yourself to have a chance. I said "my plan is working brilliantly" just because I made a statement(which is so far correct) doesn't mean I can't be disappointed when models show a historical type storm.. Fact is, I am a lover of only one type of weather. Snow. And when you get a perfect setup. A perfect low location and still fight warm air and dry slotting.. Yes it gets old. So yes, I do expect this winter to be similar to last now. My early call in Oct was a snowier than normal with temps near normal. But things change. This proves Central Ohio sucks in the way of storms. Even with a perfect storm track, we still get shafted.

With that being said. Regardless of predictions etc, I'm still a snow weenie at heart and when the prospects of a big winter storm comes along I get excited. Is that okay sir? It's not my fault that the one time I want white stuff blowing all over my face it never happens lol.

I guess I just don't think Ohio has had it that bad recently. Last winter sucked, but it sucked everywhere. Here are all the snowfalls over 3" the last 10 years.

1. March 7-8, 2008: 20.5"

2. February 14-17, 2003: 15.5"

3. February 15-16, 2010: 10.4"

4. February 5-6, 2010: 9.9"

5. January 27-28, 2009: 7.4"

6. December 22-23, 2004: 6.6"

7. January 13-14, 2009: 6.3"

8. February 13-14, 2007: 6.2"

9. January 20, 2011: 5.7"

10. February 9-10, 2010: 5.2"

11. January 5-6, 2003: 5.0"

12. February 20-21, 2008: 4.6"

13. January 7-8, 2010: 4.5"

14. January 25-26, 2004: 4.4"

15. January 6-7, 2002: 4.2"

16. December 12-13, 2010: 4.1"

17. December 5, 2007: 4.0"

18. January 26, 2003: 3.7"

19. March 16-17, 2004: 3.7"

20. January 19-20, 2005: 3.7"

21. December 27-28, 2009: 3.6"

22. February 23-24, 2003: 3.5"

23. February 6, 2007: 3.5"

24. February 25-26, 2010: 3.4"

25. January 12-13, 2012: 3.4"

26. March 1-2, 2005: 3.2"

27. April 23-24, 2005: 3.2"

28. January 21, 2007: 3.2"

29. January 11-12, 2011: 3.2"

30. February 11-12, 2008: 3.1"

31. February 10-11, 2003: 3.0"

32. January 23, 2004: 3.0"

Average winter snowfall 2002-2012: 29.6" Which is above average. We've been doing fine.

[dilly84]

I guess I just don't think Ohio has had it that bad recently. Last winter sucked, but it sucked everywhere. Here are all the snowfalls over 3" the last 10 years.

1. March 7-8, 2008: 20.5"

2. February 14-17, 2003: 15.5"

3. February 15-16, 2010: 10.4"

4. February 5-6, 2010: 9.9"

5. January 27-28, 2009: 7.4"

6. December 22-23, 2004: 6.6"

7. January 13-14, 2009: 6.3"

8. February 13-14, 2007: 6.2"

9. January 20, 2011: 5.7"

10. February 9-10, 2010: 5.2"

11. January 5-6, 2003: 5.0"

12. February 20-21, 2008: 4.6"

13. January 7-8, 2010: 4.5"

14. January 25-26, 2004: 4.4"

15. January 6-7, 2002: 4.2"

16. December 12-13, 2010: 4.1"

17. December 5, 2007: 4.0"

18. January 26, 2003: 3.7"

19. March 16-17, 2004: 3.7"

20. January 19-20, 2005: 3.7"

21. December 27-28, 2009: 3.6"

22. February 23-24, 2003: 3.5"

23. February 6, 2007: 3.5"

24. February 25-26, 2010: 3.4"

25. January 12-13, 2012: 3.4"

26. March 1-2, 2005: 3.2"

27. April 23-24, 2005: 3.2"

28. January 21, 2007: 3.2"

29. January 11-12, 2011: 3.2"

30. February 11-12, 2008: 3.1"

31. February 10-11, 2003: 3.0"

32. January 23, 2004: 3.0"

Average winter snowfall 2002-2012: 29.6" Which is above average. We've been doing fine.

Well that's all fine but the majority of our average comes from 1/2 here. Inch there. These setups are rare. And somehow it finds a way to screw up. But don't criticize me for loving snow. I'm like a kid when it comes to it, regardless of the predictions I've made. I seen a storm and got excited. So when you get waa and dryslot of course I'll be disappointed.

[Steve]

actually a Nice start to winter....maybe 4 our 5 with this storm...4.5 last Friday..so almost 10 inches in five days...Nice start!!

[dilly84]

I'm between 4-6" right now so I'll say 5. Need 4" more to hit low end for here

[Steve]

Snowing pretty hard right now..

[ArmyGreens]

Been in a lull the past 45 min but looks like it will pick up from the west here soon.

[WestMichigan]

This storm makes me wish I was still in Hilliard. At least for a few days. We are 2 feet under normal with 0 snow on the ground in West Michigan. Enjoy your snow.

[Floydbuster]

Chatting with locals on Cleveland news website...people are pissed off. Everyone is rushing home early and my eye doctor appointment was even cancelled and yet we haven't seen the "blizzard" yet. They kept saying late afternoon...

[Jonger]

Chatting with locals on Cleveland news website...people are pissed off. Everyone is rushing home early and my eye doctor appointment was even cancelled and yet we haven't seen the "blizzard" yet. They kept saying late afternoon...

Looks like a bust in progress.... I might actually do better here in Michigan with the placement of the trowel pivoting over me.

[jbcmh81]

It'll likely be a bust for some areas, not for others. Certainly the Columbus area looks like a bust *at this point*. The precip to the south is now moving east and returns to the west don't seem to be in any hurry to move or consolidate. Indiana has dried up considerably as well. Unless the backside can really get its act together, I'd say another inch or two at most outside of where the slow moving returns set up.

[Floydbuster]

It's not so much the lack of snow but the lack of wind. The Blizzard Warnings stunned everyone here in the Cleveland/Akron area. 40 mph+. The latest winds are about 5-10 mph in GUSTS. Any reason for that? (I am only somewhat knowledgeable with tropical weather)

[dta1984]

Looks like a bust in progress.... I might actually do better here in Michigan with the placement of the trowel pivoting over me.

Not sure if it's met blizzard criteria here east of cleve, but we will definitely meet the snowfall projections. So not a bust here. Easily 6" so far and still dumping. Northern ohio is on the pivot point according to the nws, so we should do well.

[Floydbuster]

Not sure if it's met blizzard criteria here east of cleve, but we will definitely meet the snowfall projections. So not a bust here. Easily 6" so far and still dumping. Northern ohio is on the pivot point according to the nws, so we should do well.

The NWS forecasts I'm seeing still show 6-12 inches before tomorrow morning for the Northfield/Macedonia area. 3-7

"this afternoon" and then 3-5 "tonight". That's 6-12 inches by tomorrow morning. Is that an overestimate?

[dta1984]

The NWS forecasts I'm seeing still show 6-12 inches before tomorrow morning for the Northfield/Macedonia area. 3-7

"this afternoon" and then 3-5 "tonight". That's 6-12 inches by tomorrow morning. Is that an overestimate?

Remember, that does not get updated until 3:30 or 4. I would say the 6-12 total by morning will be met. That's a wide range.

[Trent]

It's not so much the lack of snow but the lack of wind. The Blizzard Warnings stunned everyone here in the Cleveland/Akron area. 40 mph+. The latest winds are about 5-10 mph in GUSTS. Any reason for that? (I am only somewhat knowledgeable with tropical weather)

I know what a joke! I wonder if on Christmas day they had a bunch of newbie mets working while the established senior crew took the holiday off? Might explain why the blizzard warning was jumped.

There's no wind. I just left downtown and was thinking about how rare this snowstorm is ... because it's the first time in a long while that I've seen this much snow without any wind. The storm last Friday had 12 hours of 40mph+ winds. I think people were expecting it to be insanely worse than that! After all if you have 40 mph winds and moderate snows and that's not a blizzard, well then, what is to the general public?