Ohio and surrounding states (Let's talk winter!)

[JayPSU]

thanks OL

Gotta wonder if gfs comes in colder whether ILN will throw up some blizz warnings further east

Yeah, I was wondering why they didn't have bliz warnings for all areas that will have mostly snow.

[oldlogin]

thanks OL

Gotta wonder if gfs comes in colder whether ILN will throw up some blizz warnings further east

Good question ...And I am also wondering , looking at the SPC Meso critical thickness page , if the warnings won't be extended to Cincy.. The 540 line seems to be shifting South on the SPC RAP Meso page

[vespasian70]

ILN's updated AFD hints at only "cosmetic" changes to the forecast.

[Trent]

So how over-inflated do we think the NAM is with qpf for us?

I like to deduct 40% and assume a flat 10:1 ratio for the NAM.

I'm finding it hard to believe that a huge swath of Ohio will see 10"+ of snow fall in 6 hours. Perhaps some lollipops of 7" in 6 hours, but what it showed at 00z seemed unreal.

[dilly84]

I like to deduct 40% and assume a flat 10:1 ratio for the NAM.

I'm finding it hard to believe that a huge swath of Ohio will see 10"+ of snow fall in 6 hours. Perhaps some lollipops of 7" in 6 hours, but what it showed at 00z seemed unreal.

it's in the deform band. 2" per hour with thundersnow. Look at the damage this storm is doing in the south. I expect the storm to start around 5 and last til 4-6pm. Where that deform band sets up will easily see 10"

[iluvsnow]

Seldom post other than obs...sweating the mixed bag. Live in Bellbrook in Greene County just across the Montgomery County line and Dayton. The NWS point and click for Montgomery county has all snow....and blizzard warning....but Greene is not. My experience has always shown that by hook or crook the WTOD from Cincinnati gets into our area more often than not. Encouraged by your excitement over the 00Z NAM being colder for CMH. Is that true for Dayton too?

Saw on the main thread that NWS Indy says the heaviest snow in their zones now will be the extreme southeast zones....and now feel there will be NO mixing anywhere, even in far southern zones....almost to Louisville. Good signs for us in the Miami Valley southeast areas?

[dilly84]

Seldom post other than obs...sweating the mixed bag. Live in Bellbrook in Greene County just across the Montgomery County line and Dayton. The NWS point and click for Montgomery county has all snow....and blizzard warning....but Greene is not. My experience has always shown that by hook or crook the WTOD from Cincinnati gets into our area more often than not. Encouraged by your excitement over the 00Z NAM being colder for CMH. Is that true for Dayton too?

Saw on the main thread that NWS Indy says the heaviest snow in their zones now will be the extreme southeast zones....and now feel there will be NO mixing anywhere, even in far southern zones....almost to Louisville. Good signs for us in the Miami Valley southeast areas?

Looks good for you. Very good.

DAY

WED 7A 26-DEC -1.1 -0.7 1010 96 98 0.22 549 541

WED 1P 26-DEC -1.9 -1.7 1004 95 96 0.96 542 539

WED 7P 26-DEC -2.3 -6.3 1005 95 88 0.14 540 535

THU 1A 27-DEC -3.2 -8.5 1010 94 77 0.03 542 534

THU 7A 27-DEC -3.1 -7.6 1015 94 59 0.01 546 535

[iluvsnow]

Thanks Dilly....I was in Terre Haute, Indiana during the '78 blizzard working in TV as a sportscaster. Never forget the alarm bells on the AP teletype when the statewide blizzard warnings went up. Just awe inspiring. Sadly...Terre Haute was so far West...we only got a very dry 8-to 10 inches of snow...but unreal winds. The ground was shockingly mostly bare....with big drifts in many places...but actually more bare ground than snow. Always wished I had gotten in my car and driven to Eastern Indiana or Western Ohio to witness what has been the landmark winter storm of my life....with a caveat. Hope to be able to witness some excitement in the next 18 hours!

[WestMichigan]

Dayton's blizzard warning text - "* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH." Does this really meet blizzard criteria? Seems like people are getting a little jumpy over some wind driven snow. Maybe they are expecting frequent enough gusts to meet the criteria, but this sure seems like a stretch.

[Paweatherguy1]

Wow OH guys....the GFS is an absolute monster for you guys!

[JayPSU]

Wow OH guys....the GFS is an absolute monster for you guys!

Puts the bullseye right over us here in Columbus! Looks a big time thumping coming for us, buckeye!

[dilly84]

Dayton's blizzard warning text - "* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH." Does this really meet blizzard criteria? Seems like people are getting a little jumpy over some wind driven snow. Maybe they are expecting frequent enough gusts to meet the criteria, but this sure seems like a stretch.

I think a lot has to do with the amount of snow that is going to fall as well.

[dilly84]

uh oh.. 0z GFS text data

CMH

WED 06Z 26-DEC -1.8 -2.0 1019 93 45 0.00 554 539

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.3 0.5 1011 95 99 0.19 551 543

WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.0 -0.8 1002 95 100 1.19 542 540

ZZV

WED 06Z 26-DEC -0.8 -1.3 1019 90 39 0.00 555 539

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.2 1.5 1011 92 99 0.09 553 544

WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.2 -0.8 1003 95 100 1.01 544 542

DAY

WED 06Z 26-DEC -1.8 -2.5 1018 89 69 0.00 553 539

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.7 0.1 1008 97 99 0.28 549 543

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.4 -0.8 1001 96 99 0.74 540 539

[buckeye]

uh oh.. 0z GFS text data

CMH

WED 06Z 26-DEC -1.8 -2.0 1019 93 45 0.00 554 539

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.3 0.5 1011 95 99 0.19 551 543

WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.0 -0.8 1002 95 100 1.19 542 540

ZZV

WED 06Z 26-DEC -0.8 -1.3 1019 90 39 0.00 555 539

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.2 1.5 1011 92 99 0.09 553 544

WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.2 -0.8 1003 95 100 1.01 544 542

DAY

WED 06Z 26-DEC -1.8 -2.5 1018 89 69 0.00 553 539

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.7 0.1 1008 97 99 0.28 549 543

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.4 -0.8 1001 96 99 0.74 540 539

gfs is the warmest model right now. nam is colder and the latest globals, ukie and rgem are much colder implying all snow to the river. GFS is the outlier now on this.

nowcast time anyways

[dayton1996]

Dilly,

There are weenies (like me) that are members of this site.

Not all of us are Mets. Please interpret this data sir. I've been following this storm for a few days. Almost time for lift off....

[dilly84]

gfs is the warmest model right now. nam is colder and the latest globals, ukie and rgem are much colder implying all snow to the river. GFS is the outlier now on this.

nowcast time anyways

yea I know. hey my plan worked. I figured if I called winter cancel something big would happen. And boom!

[dilly84]

Dilly,

There are weenies (like me) that are members of this site.

Not all of us are Mets. Please interpret this data sir. I've been following this storm for a few days. Almost time for lift off....

Wish i was a MET. I just have an understanding.

So the GFS is coming in warmer. showing zr all the way to CMH. But I wouldnt worry. I think most stay all snow.

[dayton1996]

Thanks man. Not bad for a civilian :-)

[Paweatherguy1]

yea I know. hey my plan worked. I figured if I called winter cancel something big would happen. And boom!

Dilly, you have GFS PIT text data?

[buckeye]

Thanks man. Not bad for a civilian :-)

CMH

WED 06Z 26-DEC -1.8 -2.0 1019 93 45 0.00 554 539

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.3 0.5 1011 95 99 0.19 551 543

WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.0 -0.8 1002 95 100 1.19 542 540

ok here goes....and I will have this wrong but this is the jist on reading these.

the first column is date and time. second column is temp (surface?) in celcius (0 is therefore freezing) Third column is temps at 850(?) (or temps at 5000') important for precip type again in celcius Next two columns are pressure readings.

Underlined numbers are precipitation amounts during those time frames (in this case cmh gets 1.38" of precip...holy cow). Last numbers are thicknesses.

I'm pretty sure i have the temp columns mixed up 850 or surface. But you get the jist. You don't want to see numbers above 0 or the precip during that timeframe may not be snow or frozen.

[dayton1996]

Got it. Thanks Buckeye, and good luck to you and our fellow Ohio snow lovers!

[dilly84]

Dilly, you have GFS PIT text data?

here. with the meanings included.(You were correct Buckeye)

[Paweatherguy1]

here. with the meanings included.(You were correct Buckeye)

Ugh...that shows a whole lot of freezing rain. I hope that does not verify that way.

[michsnowfreak]

I think a lot has to do with the amount of snow that is going to fall as well.

This is probably one of the biggest winter-weather misconceptions out there. And the general public will NEVER understand it anyway....but a blizzard warning is about wind and visibility moreso than total snowfall amount. You can be forecast to only see 1-3" of snow but have a blizzard warning (see parts of KS last week) if winds of 35+ mph are expected to reduce visibility to a quarter mile or less for 3+ consecutive hours. On the flip side, you can see a historic snowstorm forecast to drop, say, 14-18" but with a breeze at or below 25 mph expected, and they will just issue a winter storm warning.

[snowlover2]

Dayton's blizzard warning text - "* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH." Does this really meet blizzard criteria? Seems like people are getting a little jumpy over some wind driven snow. Maybe they are expecting frequent enough gusts to meet the criteria, but this sure seems like a stretch.

It does meet criteria.

Sustained winds or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater

...and...

falling and/or blowing snow

...and...

visibility reduced to 1/4 mile or less for at least 3 hours

[Steve]

Tell me why in the other thread they will post everyones possible total snowfall except for Ohio...especially cmh? Are we disliked that much?

[dilly84]

This is probably one of the biggest winter-weather misconceptions out there. And the general public will NEVER understand it anyway....but a blizzard warning is about wind and visibility moreso than total snowfall amount. You can be forecast to only see 1-3" of snow but have a blizzard warning (see parts of KS last week) if winds of 35+ mph are expected to reduce visibility to a quarter mile or less for 3+ consecutive hours. On the flip side, you can see a historic snowstorm forecast to drop, say, 14-18" but with a breeze at or below 25 mph expected, and they will just issue a winter storm warning.

I know what a blizzard is, but because of the rarity of these storms across Ohio, Im sure they are taking a foot with 35-40mph GUSTS, in consideration. typically it has to be a sustained wind. So I am assuming they are taking into account the amount, with the gusts. Also typically, blizzard usually requires 6" of snow I thought.

[dilly84]

Final Call. Hope it verifies. Not much of a change, but felt the need to do an update.

[Chicago WX]

I know what a blizzard is, but because of the rarity of these storms across Ohio, Im sure they are taking a foot with 35-40mph GUSTS, in consideration. typically it has to be a sustained wind. So I am assuming they are taking into account the amount, with the gusts. Also typically, blizzard usually requires 6" of snow I thought.

Snowfall amount is not part of the criteria.

From the NWS:

Blizzard Warning: Issued for sustained or gusty winds of 35 mph or more, and falling or blowing snow creating visibilities at or below ¼ mile; these conditions should persist for at least three hours.

[dilly84]

Snowfall amount is not part of the criteria.

From the NWS:

Blizzard Warning: Issued for sustained or gusty winds of 35 mph or more, and falling or blowing snow creating visibilities at or below ¼ mile; these conditions should persist for at least three hours.

Well they updated the criteria too. im pretty sure there used to be an amount on the ground to meet the criteria. I could be wrong. I am 100% sure temperature used to be in the criteria, but that was years ago.