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Ohio and surrounding states (Let's talk winter!)

Steve

By Steve,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted
  On 12/20/2012 at 5:07 PM, wxdudemike said:

The 0z Euro track looked great, but had very low QPF for some reason.

Wondering if we could squeeze out a last minute to change to light snow Monday night for a light dusting Christmas morning? Probably just wishful thinking :santa:

12zggem is on board for a primary to KY and transfer as well.

These setups where a primary tracks into the lower eastern OV and then transfers are tenuous at best. More often than not the primary becomes stronger than modeled. You end up with the dreaded WTOD situation....snow to the west, north, and east (cad),.... we get slop.

I'd rather see this morph into a good ole fashioned app runner....which I think is just as possible of a scenario as any.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted
  On 12/20/2012 at 5:07 PM, wxdudemike said:

....

Wondering if we could squeeze out a last minute to change to light snow Monday night for a light dusting Christmas morning? Probably just wishful thinking :santa:

both the ggem and the ukmet have a decent low pessure riding right up the Ohio river hr 108. Temps probably an issue though.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
  On 12/20/2012 at 5:35 PM, buckeye said:

12zggem is on board for a primary to KY and transfer as well.

These setups where a primary tracks into the lower eastern OV and then transfers are tenuous at best. More often than not the primary becomes stronger than modeled. You end up with the dreaded WTOD situation....snow to the west, north, and east (cad),.... we get slop.

I'd rather see this morph into a good ole fashioned app runner....which I think is just as possible of a scenario as any.

lol, was just checking the 12z runs and thought to myself 'I bet I'm gonna see buckeye post about the WTOD'

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
Posted
  On 12/20/2012 at 5:50 PM, buckeye said:

...been licked by her many times.

I'd rather see this come up further east. Worst case is a track from say W.TN ....need it to come up from E. TN

The WTOD has not seemed to have made an appearance the last several winters. The last time I can think of it really hurting one of our events was during the Valentine's storm of 2007. It hasn't really shown up since. I suppose it's only a matter of time, though.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted
  On 12/20/2012 at 6:39 PM, jbcmh81 said:

The WTOD has not seemed to have made an appearance the last several winters. The last time I can think of it really hurting one of our events was during the Valentine's storm of 2007. It hasn't really shown up since. I suppose it's only a matter of time, though.

I swear I had nothing to do with the 12z euro run...

WOW....

if only

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pondo1000

pondo1000

Posted
Posted
  On 12/20/2012 at 6:46 PM, buckeye said:

powerhouse app runner....Alabama to Buffalo deepens to 981 I would imagine Pittsburgh to Columbus gets crushed

now we just have to hold serve for 5 or 6 days :axe:

You thinking it winds up as a coastal like DT has been saying? I wonder if he thinks that an app runner is possible with the set up?

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted
  On 12/20/2012 at 6:51 PM, pondo1000 said:

Why oh why couldn't this be 5 days out? I mean, just one time!!!!!!!

well the signal for a storm in that general area has been there now for several days. i figured at some point the euro would show this solution, not that it would verify, just that it would show it.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted
  On 12/20/2012 at 6:57 PM, wxdudemike said:

12z Euro for CMH :o

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.8 -4.0 1018 76 45 0.00 550 536

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.4 -3.5 1008 78 100 0.11 545 538

THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.9 -8.6 1000 88 100 0.54 535 535

THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.1 -11.3 1001 86 99 0.44 525 524

THU 12Z 27-DEC -7.9 -12.6 1008 79 99 0.19 525 519

12-18" windblown snow.... lock it up. Afterall nothing unusual about that here.

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted
  On 12/20/2012 at 7:08 PM, pondo1000 said:

Well we had a big one on March '08 so it is almost 5 years since that so why not?

No reason it can't happen. Then again, I can't remember one time that I've seen a model hold serve for 5/6 days in a row. There is model agreement which isn't a bad thing at all. Aren't all the big ones modeled well in advance? I'll give it a possible, but not probable at this point.

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
Posted

NWS ILN forecast for Columbus next week:

Monday: Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 50%.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of rain. Lows in the upper 20s.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Highs around 40.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with lows in the upper 20s.

Wednesday: Rain and snow likely. Blustery with highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 70%

Wednesday Night: Snow likely. Brisk with lows in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 70%

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of snow. Brisk with highs in the lower 30s.

These are very high chances for a 5-7 days out. The AFD isn't out, but they must really like our chances for a good storm.

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
Posted
  On 12/20/2012 at 7:00 PM, buckeye said:

12-18" windblown snow.... lock it up. Afterall nothing unusual about that here.

Top 20 Columbus Snowfalls

1. March 7-8, 2008: 20.5"

2. February 14-17, 2003: 15.5"

3. November 23-29, 1950: 15.2"

4. February 16-17, 1910: 15.0"

5. January 6-7, 1910: 12.7"

6. April 3-5, 1987: 12.6"

7. February 11-12, 1910: 10.6"

8.. February 15-16, 2010: 10.4"

9. January 8-9, 1884: 10.2"

10. January 13-14, 1917: 10.1"

11. March 19-20, 1906: 10.0"

12.February 7-8, 1971: 9.9"

January 16-17, 1978: 9.9"

February 5-6, 2010: 9.9"

13. February 13-14, 1914: 9.6"

14. January 13-15, 1968: 9.5"

February 27-28, 1984: 9.5"

15. January 1-2, 1904: 9.3"

16. March 5-6, 1962: 9.2"

17. December 25-26, 1890: 9.1"

18. January 6-7, 1996: 9.0"

19. December 19-21, 1960: 8.8"

20. February 15-16, 1903: 8.7"

I don't know, having 4 years in the top 20 for the past decade, including 3 in the top 10, maybe it means we're just in a more big-snow era, similar to the late 19th-early 20th century. Anything's possible, but I wouldn't exactly be counting on that.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted
  On 12/20/2012 at 10:16 PM, jbcmh81 said:

Top 20 Columbus Snowfalls

1. March 7-8, 2008: 20.5"

2. February 14-17, 2003: 15.5"

3. November 23-29, 1950: 15.2"

4. February 16-17, 1910: 15.0"

5. January 6-7, 1910: 12.7"

6. April 3-5, 1987: 12.6"

7. February 11-12, 1910: 10.6"

8.. February 15-16, 2010: 10.4"

9. January 8-9, 1884: 10.2"

10. January 13-14, 1917: 10.1"

11. March 19-20, 1906: 10.0"

12.February 7-8, 1971: 9.9"

January 16-17, 1978: 9.9"

February 5-6, 2010: 9.9"

13. February 13-14, 1914: 9.6"

14. January 13-15, 1968: 9.5"

February 27-28, 1984: 9.5"

15. January 1-2, 1904: 9.3"

16. March 5-6, 1962: 9.2"

17. December 25-26, 1890: 9.1"

18. January 6-7, 1996: 9.0"

19. December 19-21, 1960: 8.8"

20. February 15-16, 1903: 8.7"

I don't know, having 4 years in the top 20 for the past decade, including 3 in the top 10, maybe it means we're just in a more big-snow era, similar to the late 19th-early 20th century. Anything's possible, but I wouldn't exactly be counting on that.

What happened Dec 22-23, 2004?

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted
  On 12/21/2012 at 2:37 AM, snowstormcanuck said:

What happened Dec 22-23, 2004?

that gradient was so incredibly tight that you had something like 10" on the far west side of franklin county (Columbus) and an icestorm/slop on the east side. Columbus airport is on the east side so I bet the 'official' snowfall for that is less than 5" (guessing)

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