Steve Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Here we go again...ready for the snow..and please don't say we have a forum already for this..This is like my fifth year of doing this..so let's go..Hey Dilly!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted October 5, 2012 Author Share Posted October 5, 2012 Where have the replies gon?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Where have the replies gon?? Deleted. It was just squabbling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 Ready. Will post my winter forcast next week or so. Hard to believe winter is around the corner. Won't be too hard to beat last winter eh? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Ready. Will post my winter forcast next week or so. Hard to believe winter is around the corner. Won't be too hard to beat last winter eh? Lol LOL, last winter was one of the least interesting I've seen in some time ... rivaling some of the dogs in the 90's. A winter that is better than last year isn't saying much. I look forward to your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted October 9, 2012 Author Share Posted October 9, 2012 I agree 100%..Last year was boring...hopefully we can make up for it this year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 So I was working up some numbers on the correlation between October and November weather and the following winters. I looked at every winter 1878-79 to 2011-12 for Columbus. First, here is the ranking of October/November mean temp and the mean for the following winters. I judged October/November cold if they were at least 2 degrees below average. Normal was +/-2, and warm was at least 2 degrees above normal. Average winter mean is 31.3. 1. Cold October: 30.0 2. Cold November: 30.2 3. Normal October: 30.9 4. Normal November: 31.3 5. Warm October: 31.9 6. Warm November: 32.3 So this would suggest a cold October has a slightly stronger correlation to a cold winter than a cold November does, but a warm November has a slightly stronger correlation to a warm winter than a warm October. Now for the snowfall correlation. I did the same thing as I did for temps, but this time they're ranked by the average snowfall for the following winters. Normal snowfall is about 28". 1. Cold October: 30.2" 2. Cold November: 29.1" 3. Normal October: 26.4" 4. Normal November: 23.8" 5. Warm November: 22.9" 6. Warm October: 22.0" So in regards to snowfall, it's the same ranking as temps except that a warm November becomes slightly better for snowfall than a warm October. In both cases, a cold October has the strongest correlation to a decent winter. I also worked out combinations. For example, a cold October followed by a warm November, etc. Here are the best combinations by rank for coldest winter means and the average mean. 1. Cold October to Cold November: 29.5 2. Warm October to Cold November: 29.8 3. Cold October to Warm November: 30.5 4. Cold October to Normal November: 30.6 5. Normal October to Cold November: 30.6 6. Normal October to Normal November: 30.6 7. Warm October to Normal November: 32.8 8. Normal October to Warm November: 33.1 9. Warm October to Warm November: 33.4 And here are the best for snowfall and the following winter average. 1. Cold October to Warm November: 39.3" 2. Cold October to Cold November: 31.7" 3. Warm October to Cold November: 28.2" 4. Normal October to Cold November: 28.1" 5. Normal October to Normal November: 25.6" 6. Cold October to Normal November: 25.4" 7. Warm October to Normal November: 19.6" 8. Normal October to Warm November: 18.7" 9. Warm October to Warm November: 13.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted October 18, 2012 Author Share Posted October 18, 2012 Nice write up...i think this October will be slightly, cooler...unless we get some realty warmer weather..and I really don't see that type of warmer weather.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Apologize guys. Computer is down and with 3 car payments, extra funds haven't been easy to come by so I am posting from my phone. I'm not going to get too much into specifics until I can get a new computer as it is a pain typing on here from a phone lol Specifically for Ohio. With having a weak El Nino this winter, the conditions SHOULD be ripe for an above average winter in regards to seasonal snowfall for the state. The NAO will also be negative as it has been, and to this point doesn't show signs of going positive. I think temperature wise we will be around average, maybe a bit below, but nothing drastic. First measurable snow, I have coming around the 2nd week of November, 10th - 12th. No I'm not saying a storm, just the first measurable snow.. Some are chiming in that we could see a winter storm around Halloween as the GFS has hinted at this happening. Not buying it. Most likely a rain event around here, not to say a few snowflakes won't mix in at night. The gulf will be open for business so I do think we will have plenty of storms to track this winter, unlike last winter. We will have several storms come out of the gulf and up the Appalacians. A track east or west of the apps will be our main concern. Well and of course temps. WTOD is always present in Ohio. Anyways sorry I can't go more into depth. Like I said posting from this phone is a pain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro is lookin' nice for a few flakes next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 yeah some of the forecast, ... show a few flakes next week ... it's a start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 yeah some of the forecast, ... show a few flakes next week ... it's a start! That's better than last year already! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wow!!! Local forecast are saying that if Sandy comes ashore in Virginia, we could have another Ike on our hands, maybe a touch of snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 They are saying we could see snow out of Sandy..wow!! Measurable snow? I know most would melt..but still pretty cool!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 just for Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 Lol....gotta laugh!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yay! Clown maps are back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Euro and nam coming on board? Only 2 days out... hmm interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Wow can't be sad to see clown maps coming out in October LOL. It is going to be close for snow...Upper temps are warming for borderline sleet. In addition, surface temps will be marginal also. If it happens though, there could be some heavy winter precip for a few hours!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 We have had rain all afternoon and evening..with 15-20 mph winds..i am afraid this rain before the wind will, not be good..ground will be moist and am afraid we will, have many trees down!! Thoughts from anyone on this..cause they are calling for gust over 50mph.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 We have had rain all afternoon and evening..with 15-20 mph winds..i am afraid this rain before the wind will, not be good..ground will be moist and am afraid we will, have many trees down!! Thoughts from anyone on this..cause they are calling for gust over 50mph.. Against my better judgement, I am thinking much of central/southeast ohio will see measurable snow. It's against my call I made a few days ago about when our first snow would be, but this storm is very complicated for our area. Will see what the 0z models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 NAM is looking good for some snow for CMH. SFC Pressure is quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Snow in October, at least in Columbus where I'm most familiar with the records, is not all that rare. However, it usually comes in trace amounts towards the 2nd half of the month. Accumulating snow in Octobers IS rare. Since the winter of 1878-79, there have been only 9 years that saw accumulating snow during the month of October. Here are those months and the monthly totals. 1993: 4.6" The Halloween Storm 1925: 3.0" 1962: 1.3" 1880: 1.0" 1917: 0.6" 1910: 0.5" 1989: 0.4" 1906: 0.2" 1954: 0.2" The good news is that, for the most part, most of these were decent. The warmest winter of the group came in at 31.8 (1910-11) degrees. Normal is 31.3. The coldest was 22.8 (1917-18). The average mean of the group is 28.4. For snowfall, the lowest was 21.1" in 1989-90 with the highest at 62.4" in 1880-81. The average snowfall was 34.8". Normal is about 28" And just for those winters that saw 1" or more of snow in October... the average mean of those following winters was 26.8 and the snowfall average was 40.7". From what I can see, the Columbus area may get an inch or more sometime Monday night into Tuesday, putting it into a very elite group. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Columbus received 0.6" of snow today, officially making October 2012 only the 10th in 134 years to have measurable snowfall. May get a few more tenths over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 So...what is everyones take on this upcoming winter..right now we are like almost 20 degrees below for highs right now..and I only see a few days in the 15 day outlook that look to be normal or average highs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 So...what is everyones take on this upcoming winter..right now we are like almost 20 degrees below for highs right now..and I only see a few days in the 15 day outlook that look to be normal or average highs... I'll offer my general outlook probably Monday. I've had some good success with these over the years, but last year busted badly. There were a lot of signs pointing to a warm winter, but I basically ignored my own formula. This year, I'm going back to basics. First thoughts, though, is that I think most winter lovers will be satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 First thoughts, though, is that I think most winter lovers will be satisfied. I hope so. It won't be too hard to beat last year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 A quick overview of my thoughts for winter 2012-2013. There are some really good signs for this winter. The weak Nino favors a decent winter, as does the record negative AO October. Conditions on the ground temper that somewhat. I use a a few dozen differen parameters coming up with my forecast, heavily weighted towards weather on the ground. Usually this gives a clear direction one way or another as to what the following winter will be like. This year, the analogs I'm coming up with are splitting into two groups. Those that ended up generally warm and snowless and those that were very cold and snowy. A few months ago, I would've said that things were heading towards another warm winter, but now I don't think that. The strongest analogs coming out are 2009-2010, 2002-2003, 1989-1990, 1979-1980, 1976-1977, 1962-1963, 1959-1960, 1913-1914 and 1895-1896. These are heavily in favor of a cold winter. Snow was more mixed, but on average favor snowfall a bit above normal. Here is my monthly breakdown for Columbus (extrapolate for your own Ohio city). December: Likely the warmest of the 3 winter months. Expected Mean: 30.0 to 32.0. Average is 33.7. January: I expect this to be the coldest month. Expected Mean: 24.0 to 26.0 Average is 28.3 February: Remaining cold, not much moderation from January: Expected Mean: 25.0 to 27.0. Average is 32.0. Winter Mean: 26.5 to 28.5 Snowfall: 30"-35". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 A quick overview of my thoughts for winter 2012-2013. There are some really good signs for this winter. The weak Nino favors a decent winter, as does the record negative AO October. Conditions on the ground temper that somewhat. I use a a few dozen differen parameters coming up with my forecast, heavily weighted towards weather on the ground. Usually this gives a clear direction one way or another as to what the following winter will be like. This year, the analogs I'm coming up with are splitting into two groups. Those that ended up generally warm and snowless and those that were very cold and snowy. A few months ago, I would've said that things were heading towards another warm winter, but now I don't think that. The strongest analogs coming out are 2009-2010, 2002-2003, 1989-1990, 1979-1980, 1976-1977, 1962-1963, 1959-1960, 1913-1914 and 1895-1896. These are heavily in favor of a cold winter. Snow was more mixed, but on average favor snowfall a bit above normal. Here is my monthly breakdown for Columbus (extrapolate for your own Ohio city). December: Likely the warmest of the 3 winter months. Expected Mean: 30.0 to 32.0. Average is 33.7. January: I expect this to be the coldest month. Expected Mean: 24.0 to 26.0 Average is 28.3 February: Remaining cold, not much moderation from January: Expected Mean: 25.0 to 27.0. Average is 32.0. Winter Mean: 26.5 to 28.5 Snowfall: 30"-35". Sounds good (Im extrapolating for further north!). The only one of those winters I dont care to see is 1979-80. Being a big weather weenie, Im always asked by everyone "what will winter be like". Forecasting is not my area, however, I have been using the fact that the last two winters were two extremes and giving the cop-out response "much harsher than last winter but not as harsh as 2010-11". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 A quick overview of my thoughts for winter 2012-2013. There are some really good signs for this winter. The weak Nino favors a decent winter, as does the record negative AO October. Conditions on the ground temper that somewhat. I use a a few dozen differen parameters coming up with my forecast, heavily weighted towards weather on the ground. Usually this gives a clear direction one way or another as to what the following winter will be like. This year, the analogs I'm coming up with are splitting into two groups. Those that ended up generally warm and snowless and those that were very cold and snowy. A few months ago, I would've said that things were heading towards another warm winter, but now I don't think that. The strongest analogs coming out are 2009-2010, 2002-2003, 1989-1990, 1979-1980, 1976-1977, 1962-1963, 1959-1960, 1913-1914 and 1895-1896. These are heavily in favor of a cold winter. Snow was more mixed, but on average favor snowfall a bit above normal. Here is my monthly breakdown for Columbus (extrapolate for your own Ohio city). December: Likely the warmest of the 3 winter months. Expected Mean: 30.0 to 32.0. Average is 33.7. January: I expect this to be the coldest month. Expected Mean: 24.0 to 26.0 Average is 28.3 February: Remaining cold, not much moderation from January: Expected Mean: 25.0 to 27.0. Average is 32.0. Winter Mean: 26.5 to 28.5 Snowfall: 30"-35". What the main "ground conditions" you are taking into account, if I may ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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