Damage In Tolland Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Euro looks dead nuts on..Snow and cold upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Sunday looks awful Going to the Whale pregame season at Trinity Sunday...was hoping the weather would be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 0z gfs is cold but theres almost no precip Euro op looks too amped up. Yeah we have some great model consensus right there............... H85 temps on the Euro are 0c over the mtns, Marginal at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Yeah we have some great model consensus right there............... H85 temps on the Euro are 0c over the mtns, Marginal at best The 06z came in a little better. I could see something in between the GFS and Euro..but I can't rule the euro out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 The 06z came in a little better. I could see something in between the GFS and Euro..but I can't rule the euro out. I just looked at the 0z GFS, Not much precip at all and the Euro is juiced, 06z is still weak and east, About a 12mb difference then the Euro, But not as bad as 0z, A track somewhere between the Euro and GFS would be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 12z gfs has snow almost to the coast again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 12z gfs has snow almost to the coast again Its a furnace at 900mb and below. Nobody would see snow from that except maybe on top of Mt. Monadnock at 3100 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 The one thing to take away from it, is that it will be awfully chilly in areas that start to rain early in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Its a furnace at 900mb and below. Nobody would see snow from that except maybe on top of Mt. Monadnock at 3100 feet. Yes, Even H85@ 0c won't cut it this time of year especially lower elevations, 2M temps are 40's as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Yeah I love that road...there's no road in VT like that, all we have is a few mountain passes briefly that crest at 2000-2500ft, but doesn't the Kang highway spend a good deal of distance above 2000ft? Kanga is all fixed up, bright and airy compared to my memory of Smuggs - once, on our honeymoon in 1971. Overhanging trees, huge boulders, almost spooky. The only notch I've been thru that's even close is Kinsman, in NH, and it's a distant 2nd. I hope the Smugglers Notch Road hasn't been all modernized (he said, who doesn't have to drive it.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Kanga is all fixed up, bright and airy compared to my memory of Smuggs - once, on our honeymoon in 1971. Overhanging trees, huge boulders, almost spooky. The only notch I've been thru that's even close is Kinsman, in NH, and it's a distant 2nd. I hope the Smugglers Notch Road hasn't been all modernized (he said, who doesn't have to drive it.) No it's still a pretty sketchy road for the amount of traffic it sees...but that's why they can't open it in the winter, minus the fact they'd have to plow 24/7 in one of the snowiest roads in the state. But yeah there are huge boulders next to the road, steep cliffs on both sides that threaten landslides and rock slides, and it gets down to one lane around a couple blind corners as it squeezes between the rocks. Last summer we had a fresh landslide that closed the road briefly, uprooting trees with car sized boulders rolling through the forest onto the road. Tractor trailers are out of luck and I know of two times so far this warm season where Stowe PD and State Police had to close the road to excavate large trucks from the Notch that must not have believed the signs that say impassable for trailers and large trucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Better chance at some widespread frozen precip still looks around the 11th-13th range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Better chance at some widespread frozen precip still looks around the 11th-13th range. Yea I would be pretty excited if I was PF, looks like an upslope special too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Better chance at some widespread frozen precip still looks around the 11th-13th range. Just glanced at the GFS for the 11th, and it still looks really warm. If if we can get that vortmx to stay consolidated and somewhat stronger, we can then get the trough to amplify a little bit. It's too flat for anything snow-wise in the 12z run. Meanwhile, the 0z EURO is COLD for northern VT for Sunday night. Probably 34-35 and heavy rain Sunday night in the valleys. Above 3k actually looks pretty interesting Sunday night with no insolation and heavy precip...can't see 925mb temps, but with 850's near -3C, I'd assume a pretty shallow MALR, so maybe -1C? Also, with heavy precip we may get help to dynamically cool the column in higher elevations, too. Too bad my Fall break is tomorrow through October 14, so I'll be in CT... Also, LOL at the highs for Saturday 10/13 on the EURO...33F in N VT and near 40F in SNE! UCONN game will be interesting when I go if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 It looks to me like the 12Z NAM came around more toward the 0Z Euro. When that happens the GFS usually bows down to it eventually. The one thing to take away from it, is that it will be awfully chilly in areas that start to rain early in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Just glanced at the GFS for the 11th, and it still looks really warm. If if we can get that vortmx to stay consolidated and somewhat stronger, we can then get the trough to amplify a little bit. It's too flat for anything snow-wise in the 12z run. Meanwhile, the 0z EURO is COLD for northern VT for Sunday night. Probably 34-35 and heavy rain Sunday night in the valleys. Above 3k actually looks pretty interesting Sunday night with no insolation and heavy precip...can't see 925mb temps, but with 850's near -3C, I'd assume a pretty shallow MALR, so maybe -1C? Also, with heavy precip we may get help to dynamically cool the column in higher elevations, too. Too bad my Fall break is tomorrow through October 14, so I'll be in CT... Also, LOL at the highs for Saturday 10/13 on the EURO...33F in N VT and near 40F in SNE! UCONN game will be interesting when I go if that verifies. I was lookiing more at the Euro in that time period, Its a meat locker here in that time frame up here, If we can get that vortmax under SNE........hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Yea I would be pretty excited if I was PF, looks like an upslope special too. He would be making naked snow angels up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Hvy Hvy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 I was lookiing more at the Euro in that time period, Its a meat locker here in that time frame up here, If we can get that vortmax under SNE........hmmmm This pattern would be nice in mid/late November. Dip the PJ climo a bit more south and we'd be talking multiple snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 This pattern would be nice in mid/late November. Dip the PJ climo a bit more south and we'd be talking multiple snow chances. It seems we've been lacking this type of a pattern in November since really about 2005. I guess 2008 had some moments, but it was pretty dry when we got cold that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 ECM weenie snow maps bring white to the Berkshires at hour 90...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 If that H5 vortmax can tighten a bit more, it may end as weenie flakes even at 2K or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 If that H5 vortmax can tighten a bit more, it may end as weenie flakes even at 2K or higher. You mean 1K in north central CT? ...The heavens just opened up and it's pouring rain here like I haven't seen in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 You mean 1K in north central CT? ...The heavens just opened up and it's pouring rain here like I haven't seen in a while. More like catpaws at 2k if it wraps up more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 More like catpaws at 2k if it wraps up more. pics to prove it happened, when it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 18z NAM at hour 84 is interesting for the summits up here. Of course, its only entertainment at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Lets get the cold over to the other side of the pole for later Nov. into Dec. I'm gonna be in Germany and Poland for three weeks. I'd love nothing more than to have a Siberian air mass back down into Eastern Europe. Though a good Neg NAO could work for here and over there. I'm actually going to a place called Zakopane in the Tatra (Tatry) range of the Carpathians for a few days. It's a big ski resort town at almost 3k feet. It seems we've been lacking this type of a pattern in November since really about 2005. I guess 2008 had some moments, but it was pretty dry when we got cold that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Nobody thought it was possible on 10/4/87 and it snowed down to sea level around here. More like catpaws at 2k if it wraps up more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 the GFS is still pretty flat and the 12z euro did come SE with the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Highs in the 40's for interior in Sunday FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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