Damage In Tolland Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Beautiful storm going to occur across MN. TSSN? Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 It would be awesome to witness one of those autumn bombs they get in the upper midwest this time of year. I'd rather chase one of those than their tornadoes, lol. That's what you need for snow. The GFS is chilly, but the main s/w can't really amplify enough, nor is the cold pushed far enough south from the previous s/w as Will alluded to. Still could end as snow up in the high spots there. If you notice though, in true anafrontal fashion...the best moisture is closer to the actual front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 That's what you need for snow. The GFS is chilly, but the main s/w can't really amplify enough, nor is the cold pushed far enough south from the previous s/w as Will alluded to. Still could end as snow up in the high spots there. If you notice though, in true anafrontal fashion...the best moisture is closer to the actual front. Yeah I have no hopes for anything other than a coating at like 3,000ft and higher... but looking at the RH plots, there's some residual moisture in the low levels and H85, diminishing a bit from H7 and above. Still with a push of CAA as the wave passes, a slight up tick in NW flow may be a bit to squeeze out some rimed flakes or graupel pellets at the tail end on the higher elevations of the mountain. Typically in this situation there might be some light rain or drizzle changing to flurries at the summit, but usually there's a burst of CAA right behind the wave that's enough for a 1-3 hour period of enhanced upslope shower activity before the dry air moves in and cuts it off. If that can materialize enough, I may be able to find the ground whitened at 3,700ft first thing Monday morning. At the very least, this screams riming for the summits with moisture at H85 and temps in the upper 20s and lower 30s...so that's a possibility for getting a view of white, too. Not as exciting as snow, but at this time of year, anything white on the ridgeline with the foliage below would be epic for photos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Yeah I have no hopes for anything other than a coating at like 3,000ft and higher... but looking at the RH plots, there's some residual moisture in the low levels and H85, diminishing a bit from H7 and above. Still with a push of CAA as the wave passes, a slight up tick in NW flow may be a bit to squeeze out some rimed flakes or graupel pellets at the tail end on the higher elevations of the mountain. Typically in this situation there might be some light rain or drizzle changing to flurries at the summit, but usually there's a burst of CAA right behind the wave that's enough for a 1-3 hour period of enhanced upslope shower activity before the dry air moves in and cuts it off. If that can materialize enough, I may be able to find the ground whitened at 3,700ft first thing Monday morning. At the very least, this screams riming for the summits with moisture at H85 and temps in the upper 20s and lower 30s...so that's a possibility for getting a view of white, too. Not as exciting as snow, but at this time of year, anything white on the ridgeline with the foliage below would be epic for photos. Unless this got shunted far SE, I think they'll be some snow showers at the end for you. Depends on how much leftover moisture is there. But, Sunday may be that classic Fall feel. Cold rain with the fiery colors in the background and the smell of wood stoves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 In past winters when the GFS came out real flat like this at around this time range, the Euro would follow suit and be more amplified. Then the gfs would follow eventually. So today's Euro might be interesting. That's what you need for snow. The GFS is chilly, but the main s/w can't really amplify enough, nor is the cold pushed far enough south from the previous s/w as Will alluded to. Still could end as snow up in the high spots there. If you notice though, in true anafrontal fashion...the best moisture is closer to the actual front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 In past winters when the GFS came out real flat like this at around this time range, the Euro would follow suit and be more amplified. Then the gfs would follow eventually. So today's Euro might be interesting. Warm and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 I really think with it not rapping up to an intense storm that it will be a coastal rain maker.... light to moderate rain. These storms during the transition phase are tricky ones always but this guy is lacking some needed components. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 I really think with it not rapping up to an intense storm that it will be a coastal rain maker.... light to moderate rain. These storms during the transition phase are tricky ones always but this guy is lacking some needed components. Yeah, I would tend to agree, especially with regard to lack of bombogenesis and dynamical cooling. If this event were occurring about a month later, it would probably be a snow or mix deal in interior SNE, especially west of the CT River and north of the Pike as the trough axis is pretty far to the west. The best shot for some mountaintop snow from this event is probably in N VT IMO. There may be something else to keep an eye on out around 10/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Surface temps Sunday in the Catskills and perhaps the Berks and into NNE may be in the 40s Sunday if the rain begins early enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Surface temps Sunday in the Catskills and perhaps the Berks and into NNE may be in the 40s Sunday if the rain begins early enough. Yeah I posted earlier in the NNE thread that even the valleys may end up in the mid-upper 40s Sunday, with upper 30s in civilized higher elevations (2,000-2,500ft), with 850s (-2C) - (-4C). Last Friday we only got to 47F with rain, so I would be surprised to see even low-mid 40s Sunday with temps sliding into the upper 30's at night....maybe ending as snow above 3k in VT/NH/ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Yeah I posted earlier in the NNE thread that even the valleys may end up in the mid-upper 40s Sunday, with upper 30s in civilized higher elevations (2,000-2,500ft), with 850s (-2C) - (-4C). Last Friday we only got to 47F with rain, so I would be surprised to see even low-mid 40s Sunday with temps sliding into the upper 30's at night....maybe ending as snow above 3k in VT/NH/ME. It's too bad the storm couldn't be earlier. I'm going to be up that way this weekend and was hoping to see MWN a little white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 I'm gonna be staying in Lincoln, NH...west end of the Kancamagus Hwy on Oct 26-28...hike club weekend I have never been to the White Mountains, other than Mount Moosilauke which I climbed from the CT valley side once. So that whole area will be new to me. I'll drive over to near MWN, but dunno if it will be possible to drive up or take the railway that late in October. It's too bad the storm couldn't be earlier. I'm going to be up that way this weekend and was hoping to see MWN a little white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 I'm gonna be staying in Lincoln, NH...west end of the Kancamagus Hwy on Oct 26-28...hike club weekend I have never been to the White Mountains, other than Mount Moosilauke which I climbed from the CT valley side once. So that whole area will be new to me. I'll drive over to near MWN, but dunno if it will be possible to drive up or take the railway that late in October. The Auto Road will be closed, but the cog will be open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 It's too bad the storm couldn't be earlier. I'm going to be up that way this weekend and was hoping to see MWN a little white. I will be up there all weekend too. Looking forward to seeing the foliage and the waterfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 I'm gonna be staying in Lincoln, NH...west end of the Kancamagus Hwy on Oct 26-28...hike club weekend I have never been to the White Mountains, other than Mount Moosilauke which I climbed from the CT valley side once. So that whole area will be new to me. I'll drive over to near MWN, but dunno if it will be possible to drive up or take the railway that late in October. Take the cog and visit the weather station, a weenies dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 In all likelihood I will. Could be pretty cold up there by Oct. 28th. Take the cog and visit the weather station, a weenies dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 I will be up there all weekend too. Looking forward to seeing the foliage and the waterfalls. You're gonna have a great color show if you're in the White Mountains. Last weekend into this weekend has been amazing for foliage up this way, even without seeing an ounce of sun since Thursday 9/27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 I will be up there all weekend too. Looking forward to seeing the foliage and the waterfalls. You going to be there Monday morning? I bet the high peaks are white from either a coating of snow or rime...October can be thick rime season with cloudy weather and once the temp goes below freezing, the fog/ceiling will turn those summits white. I'm really hoping for a good rime because that stands out from a distance better than a coating of snow...stark white ridgelines with vibrant foliage below is one of my favorite views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 You're gonna have a great color show if you're in the White Mountains. Last weekend into this weekend has been amazing for foliage up this way, even without seeing an ounce of sun since Thursday 9/27. You going to be there Monday morning? I bet the high peaks are white from either a coating of snow or rime...October can be thick rime season with cloudy weather and once the temp goes below freezing, the fog/ceiling will turn those summits white. I'm really hoping for a good rime because that stands out from a distance better than a coating of snow...stark white ridgelines with vibrant foliage below is one of my favorite views. Leaving Sunday night. Really excited, if it comes in Early enough might get flakes above 2 K in the Kang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 ha, there is snow mentioned in my forecast at home...rock on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Leaving Sunday night. Really excited, if it comes in Early enough might get flakes above 2 K in the Kang. Yeah I love that road...there's no road in VT like that, all we have is a few mountain passes briefly that crest at 2000-2500ft, but doesn't the Kang highway spend a good deal of distance above 2000ft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 ha, there is snow mentioned in my forecast at home...rock on Nice! ALY is going for it. I had some yesterday but BTV removed the mention of it (outside of the summits) today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 lol at the 18zgfs snow map!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 yepYeah I love that road...there's no road in VT like that, all we have is a few mountain passes briefly that crest at 2000-2500ft, but doesn't the Kang highway spend a good deal of distance above 2000ft? yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Hairpin turn ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 I'm gonna be staying in Lincoln, NH...west end of the Kancamagus Hwy on Oct 26-28...hike club weekend I have never been to the White Mountains, other than Mount Moosilauke which I climbed from the CT valley side once. So that whole area will be new to me. I'll drive over to near MWN, but dunno if it will be possible to drive up or take the railway that late in October. Awesome. When I did my 5-day outdoor backpacking orientation for Plymouth at the end of August, we left on a trail right out of Lincoln. Small little town, but nice, town's centered around outdoor recreation business. We hiked about 25 miles in 5 days and did 2 4000's during the trip (w/o packs), but I would like to go back and do more at some point. Loved the area. If you hike about 3 miles in off one of the trails (forget which one-I could look), there's the coolest natural water slide that we went on. It was awesome. Anyway, that's a great area, should be a good hike(s). Take the cog and visit the weather station, a weenies dream. Our Mt Washington hike was cancelled twice for the met club here, still haven't been up to the peak of MWN. Can't wait to go up there! First time it was cancelled on 9/15 for a coating of snow, then 9/29 for 40F +rain and winds. Both times a day or two later it was in the 50s/60s. Just bad timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 0z gfs is cold but theres almost no precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Sounds great. I'll be bringing the snow shoes also in case there is much snow and ice on the peaks by then. Awesome. When I did my 5-day outdoor backpacking orientation for Plymouth at the end of August, we left on a trail right out of Lincoln. Small little town, but nice, town's centered around outdoor recreation business. We hiked about 25 miles in 5 days and did 2 4000's during the trip (w/o packs), but I would like to go back and do more at some point. Loved the area. If you hike about 3 miles in off one of the trails (forget which one-I could look), there's the coolest natural water slide that we went on. It was awesome. Anyway, that's a great area, should be a good hike(s). Our Mt Washington hike was cancelled twice for the met club here, still haven't been up to the peak of MWN. Can't wait to go up there! First time it was cancelled on 9/15 for a coating of snow, then 9/29 for 40F +rain and winds. Both times a day or two later it was in the 50s/60s. Just bad timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Sounds great. I'll be bringing the snow shoes also in case there is much snow and ice on the peaks by then. Any idea what peaks/trails you're doing? If you don't know now definitely let me know after and how it was, I'd definitely be interested! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Euro op looks too amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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