Columbus Day Weekend Storm

[Baroclinic Zone]

Discuss

Nice system to track coming up for the weekend.

Trough over the Midwest with a potent piece of vorticity. Looks like a quick hitter. Higher elevations may see some flakes looking quickly at the data.

[dryslot]

0z Euro is much slower with the system as the bulk of the precip falls sunday night into monday

[CoastalWx]

My guess is this is a more Sunday aftn /Sunday Night deal. Cold rain for most, maybe a little nude prancing at 4k for PF at the end.

[weathafella]

Let this be part of a parade of coastals setting winters table.

[dryslot]

I am more intrigued with the system around the 13th, I think that one may have a better chance at more frozen precip

[Sugarloaf1989]

It sucks that this bad weather comes at the time of peak fall foliage color in Northern New England.

[ctsnowstorm628]

My guess is this is a more Sunday aftn /Sunday Night deal. Cold rain for most, maybe a little nude prancing at 4k for PF at the end.

Agree. Surface will be an issue, especially below like 2,500ft at night and everywhere during the day. Insolation is still appreciable this time of year.

Vortmax is pretty sheared out on the GFS...probably limited dynamics with this, at least this far out.

[ctsnowstorm628]

It sucks that this bad weather comes at the time of peak fall foliage color in Northern New England.

Passing peak up here

[wxmanmitch]

I posted this on the other New England weather forum last night, but will post it here as well.

While this Sunday-Monday trough setup looks a bit intriguing, I just want to remind people how difficult it is climatologically to get snow in early October. Late October is not the same as early October. This isn't to say that it can't happen though since it has occurred before. If it were to occur as modeled on the GFS, the most likely suspects for some angel dandruff would be 2K+ in the northern Berks, S VT, and SW NH.

The way to achieve a sudden early to mid-October snow is to have a rapidly deepening low that dynamically cools the column to the point where frozen precipitation can fall. The 10/18/09 Patriots game snow is an example of this, as is the 10/4/87 storm. In the case of the former, it was actually raining in areas outside of the meso band where precipitation was lighter. The precip type had more to do with intensity than anything else. 10/29/11 had much more in common with a mid-winter snowstorm than a fall or spring snowstorm.

The current GFS model depiction mostly portrays this as an overrunning event with mostly light to moderate precip. With warm low-level temperatures, it will be very difficult to get any snow save for maybe above 2K. What we really need is a rapidly deepening trough and a bombing low pressure that will lead to dramatic height falls and heavy banded precip where you can go from +RA to +SN where you have parachutes ripping from the clouds. If the models continue to deepen the trough, then maybe we'll see something, but as of now, I don't think too many people outside of the elevated areas will see anything, provided anybody sees anything at all.

It seems that the Euro and GFS are converging on a solution of this being more of an open trough and overrunning event as opposed to a rapidly deepening low that begins to cutoff from the jet stream flow. As such, I really don't foresee this being anything more than a cold, miserable rain for most. Any flakeage will probably be confined to 2K+ in the Greens and maybe northern Berks as well.

The pattern looks cold overall in the long range, so maybe elevated SNE will see some more chances.

[Cold Miser]

My guess is this is a more Sunday aftn /Sunday Night deal. Cold rain for most, maybe a little nude prancing at 4k for PF at the end.

Pics afterward, or it didn't happen.

[wxjim207]

It would be interesting if the storm can get off shore and intensify well... It doesn't look like it will right now but its possible. Not ready yet to pull the snow card but if you get the right track and intensification you might see Snow in Upstate NY and Mountains of Northern New England.

[OKpowdah]

classic overrunning event. Something the likes of December 2007

[CoastalWx]

classic overrunning event. Something the likes of December 2007

19F and sleet in Tolland?

[adk]

I think it bears close consideration. I believe the set up works in favor of snow in so. VT and NH above 2500 feet. really reminds me of the storm last October 27 that put 10 or so down at Killington:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/trick-or-treat/

[ORH_wxman]

The trough axis is too far west for any real shot at winter precip. The extreme highest elevations of N VT/ N NH and N NY might get something at the end, but I'd be surprised if it was significant even there.

With a trough axis like progged at the moment...you end up having to hope its actually sheared out to the east to keep colder air in place and this time of year, a weakly sheared event with light precip will not get it done. A more significant system would track too far west with that longwave trough axis.

Maybe it can change as we get closer, but meh overall.

[Typhoon Tip]

The trough axis is too far west for any real shot at winter precip. The extreme highest elevations of N VT/ N NH and N NY might get something at the end, but I'd be surprised if it was significant even there.

With a trough axis like progged at the moment...you end up having to hope its actually sheared out to the east to keep colder air in place and this time of year, a weakly sheared event with light precip will not get it done. A more significant system would track too far west with that longwave trough axis.

Maybe it can change as we get closer, but meh overall.

Agreed - perhaps 2 months from now that longitude is doable. Typically there'd be some leading roll-out s/w ridging that is confluent up N and would help induce some +PP N of ME and setting up some sort of damming scenario, etc... But we have the deep trough anomaly only come so far south (seasonally restricted), and there isn't really a bona fide N stream enough to offer that confluence - so the wave really should slice up W along path of least resistance so to speak. In fact, it wouldn't shock me if eastern sections got a couple few hours of warmth out of that passage.

That's 'as is'

[CoastalWx]

PF should be able to lay down on the 4k picnic table and catch some flakes.

[ORH_wxman]

Agreed - perhaps 2 months from now that longitude is doable. Typically there'd be some leading roll-out s/w ridging that is confluent up N and would help induce some +PP N of ME and setting up some sort of damming scenario, etc... But we have the deep trough anomaly only come so far south (seasonally restricted), and there isn't really a bona fide N stream enough to offer that confluence - so the wave really should slice up W along path of least resistance so to speak. In fact, it wouldn't shock me if eastern sections got a couple few hours of warmth out of that passage.

That's 'as is'

Yeah I think this part is key. Even if we did have this...which perhaps could manifest itself in future runs...we are still at a distinct disadvantage given the time of year. We had an anafrontal type leading snow event 2 days before the bomb last year...cold front seeped south, and rain changes to steady 33F snow for a few hours that afternoon on Oct 27 of last fall. But that is also 3 weeks later in the season than even this current setup, and it doesn't have the stronger northern stream appeal of driving that front south and being able to sustain a wave along it in that manner.

So even if it did start to look more like 10/27 last year, 3 weeks of climo is no small obstacle this early in the season.

But we'll see, perhaps it will look just enough better in future runs to dust the peaks above 2,000 feet up north. It just has that look though that makes it difficult to expect anything more than that.

[CoastalWx]

If the GFS is right, they'll be snow in the higher peaks of VT, but the GFS seems most bullish with this feature and the euro is more strung out. There should be a decent ribbon of QPF, but it may very well be closer to the better frontogenesis near SNE. I actually like some of the dynamics here, but they may end up further south towards the "warmer" air.

[ORH_wxman]

If the GFS is right, they'll be snow in the higher peaks of VT, but the GFS seems most bullish with this feature and the euro is more strung out. There should be a decent ribbon of QPF, but it may very well be closer to the better frontogenesis near SNE. I actually like some of the dynamics here, but they may end up further south towards the "warmer" air.

If that leading s/w north of Maine around 90-96h was deeper/stronger, then it would probably be a little more interesting. Would give a nicer push of better arctic air into the region ahead of the main s/w.

But this whole gradient just is a little far north/weak right now which isn't surprising given the time of year. We don't get many snow events on 10/7 and a lot of the time the reason is "if this was only a bit stronger and further south"...which is the whole climo of the PJ to begin with. Weaker and further north the earlier in the season.

The post 10/15 events are rare enough as it is. At any rate, even some mangled flakes dusting the picnic tables at 4k will at least remind us that we are getting closer.

[CoastalWx]

If that leading s/w north of Maine around 90-96h was deeper/stronger, then it would probably be a little more interesting. Would give a nicer push of better arctic air into the region ahead of the main s/w.

But this whole gradient just is a little far north/weak right now which isn't surprising given the time of year. We don't get many snow events on 10/7 and a lot of the time the reason is "if this was only a bit stronger and further south"...which is the whole climo of the PJ to begin with. Weaker and further north the earlier in the season.

The post 10/15 events are rare enough as it is. At any rate, even some mangled flakes dusting the picnic tables at 4k will at least remind us that we are getting closer.

Lots of long haired Stowe employees laying on the table catching flakes.

[CoastalWx]

That euro s/w on the 00z run, at hr 126 would probably due to the trick if it were more compact. Alas, it's more strung out and we can't get the good dynamics to help out.

If you want to see a test book early season snow, look at NW MN tonight and how powerful that vortmax is.

[dryslot]

The trough axis is too far west for any real shot at winter precip. The extreme highest elevations of N VT/ N NH and N NY might get something at the end, but I'd be surprised if it was significant even there.

With a trough axis like progged at the moment...you end up having to hope its actually sheared out to the east to keep colder air in place and this time of year, a weakly sheared event with light precip will not get it done. A more significant system would track too far west with that longwave trough axis.

Maybe it can change as we get closer, but meh overall.

Its a catch 22, I had mentioned somewhere yesterday about the possibility of a stronger system being further west which just complicates matters with a marginal airmass

[ineedsnow]

so close yet so far for sunday night

A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[Alpha5]

In central NY at 1200', NOAA has me in the mid to upper 30's with rain.

Models have the 850 0c line pretty far to the SE, but surface temps are way too warm as is thickness indicating that we may be warm in more places than originally thought.

Probably have to go to the 'dacks and elevated parts of NNE for snow

[Logan11]

As you said, in 10/4/87 it was a core area where the best dynamic cooling took place that got the crushing heavy wet snow. Places outside this core had very little. I don't think GFL got much of anything while we had 7 inches on the SUNYA campus. Out here where I live now they saw up to 18 inches...I took a ride out here to see it.

Nobody was really forecasting any accumulation that I recall....at least not on the HV floor.

I posted this on the other New England weather forum last night, but will post it here as well.

While this Sunday-Monday trough setup looks a bit intriguing, I just want to remind people how difficult it is climatologically to get snow in early October. Late October is not the same as early October. This isn't to say that it can't happen though since it has occurred before. If it were to occur as modeled on the GFS, the most likely suspects for some angel dandruff would be 2K+ in the northern Berks, S VT, and SW NH.

The way to achieve a sudden early to mid-October snow is to have a rapidly deepening low that dynamically cools the column to the point where frozen precipitation can fall. The 10/18/09 Patriots game snow is an example of this, as is the 10/4/87 storm. In the case of the former, it was actually raining in areas outside of the meso band where precipitation was lighter. The precip type had more to do with intensity than anything else. 10/29/11 had much more in common with a mid-winter snowstorm than a fall or spring snowstorm.

The current GFS model depiction mostly portrays this as an overrunning event with mostly light to moderate precip. With warm low-level temperatures, it will be very difficult to get any snow save for maybe above 2K. What we really need is a rapidly deepening trough and a bombing low pressure that will lead to dramatic height falls and heavy banded precip where you can go from +RA to +SN where you have parachutes ripping from the clouds. If the models continue to deepen the trough, then maybe we'll see something, but as of now, I don't think too many people outside of the elevated areas will see anything, provided anybody sees anything at all.

It seems that the Euro and GFS are converging on a solution of this being more of an open trough and overrunning event as opposed to a rapidly deepening low that begins to cutoff from the jet stream flow. As such, I really don't foresee this being anything more than a cold, miserable rain for most. Any flakeage will probably be confined to 2K+ in the Greens and maybe northern Berks as well.

The pattern looks cold overall in the long range, so maybe elevated SNE will see some more chances.

[Damage In Tolland]

Upper 30's and rain Sunday nite. Crank up the heat for the first time?

[powderfreak]

Pics afterward, or it didn't happen.

LOL no one wants to see that.

But I am a little excited... I'll be working at 3,700ft at 8am on Monday morning... the timing looks great so if we can get an inch or something on Sunday night, I'll be up there before it melts on Monday. Models print out just enough QPF that 3,000+ feet could see a solid coating.

And you can bet there'll be pictures of it if it happens

[CoastalWx]

Beautiful storm going to occur across MN. TSSN?

[powderfreak]

Beautiful storm going to occur across MN. TSSN?

It would be awesome to witness one of those autumn bombs they get in the upper midwest this time of year. I'd rather chase one of those than their tornadoes, lol.