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Rocktober like the old days. Bridging to winter


weathafella

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I like the way models are trying to strengthen the MJO wave and move it to P8,1. The standard "Models can be flaky with MJO convection..." applies obviously, but it's not just the GEFS doing it.

right... --> colder than normal Octobr and a warmer than normal November in other words :axe:

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right... --> colder than normal Octobr and a warmer than normal November in other words :axe:

LOL, well I suppose it could go back to more hostile phases...but getting subsidence in the IO, tropical convection establishing even just west of the dateline can at least try and help build a more Nino like system I think. Certainly not a given.

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By the looks of it, it seems like the GEFS and GGEM ensembles want to build a -NAO by the end of period. Do the euro ensembles show this?

I didn't think the GEFS had much of a -NAO when looking at H5. EC don't really have this feature either, although heights do try to rise there, but it's a +NAO look. The EC ensembles were a little above normal by the end of the period.

FWIW the weeklies had some blocking from the Davis Straits into AK into week 4 so that's good. Not a very cold signal verbatim, but I'd take it.

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Greetings from the Mile High City. Got 3/4 of an inch of snow last night--whoo hoo. My trip out here was worth it. :)

Looks like snow/rain today and tonight are the forecast. Too bad I have to run a race in association with my conference at 6:30 tonight. It'll be dark and rainy/snowy.

I'll be on the 6:00a.m. flight out tomorrow morning. I'll see what I can do about bringing the snows back east with me. Eager to get back to GC

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