trapperman Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 The CFS and KFS are run on the same mainframe and has been known to have initialization errors that have made it waffle considerably I don't know why I still look at it every day. It brings out the weenie in me. I'm either ready to jump off a bridge or start partying... depends on the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Yeah nice and chilly here to this am, Showers and 58F.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 I don't know why I still look at it every day. It brings out the weenie in me. I'm either ready to jump off a bridge or start partying... depends on the day. I highly recommend avoiding it for more than one look a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 I don't know why I still look at it every day. It brings out the weenie in me. I'm either ready to jump off a bridge or start partying... depends on the day. lol, It certainly flops around a lot and would be cause for a party or a bridge jump regularly it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Snow showers flying from 1500ft and above this morning. Hard to grasp these quick turns from warm to cold. At 4000ft the rollarcoaster continues...20F a couple days ago, 51F yesterday, now 27F. . Nice, Hi Scooter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 lol, It certainly flops around a lot and would be cause for a party or a bridge jump regularly it seems I try to use it to find trends I guess. It sure seems to want to have a ridge in the southwest in November and December. That has been pretty much a constant. That would be a fine pattern for us out here. Clippers can deliver if you get enough of them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 3 Years ago today we were finishing up our first snow event of the season. Had about 1.3" here. Two days later would be the coastal that gave the parachutes to Foxboro. That first event was a very cold airmass. The high the previous afternoon leading up to it was 38F with overcast skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Now we are back to the GEFS being warmer later in the period. Models are probably struggling to key in on certain features. Mm, NCEP has alluded on a couple of occasions as of late that the model (ensemble clusters combined) may be having trouble ingesting tropical forcing in to the westerlies from the West Pacific. I could see that. There is an in situ -WPO in place, not very anomalously strong though. A stronger one would like nothing better than to scoop up TCs and throw them across the northern Pac. The atmosphere is on the edge - so to speak - trying to play both cards in the models. So what you end up with is this flip flopping on mass field, some rather large at that. I've seen every other GFS operational runs going from early winter to bringing summer back to the east over the last 4 or so days that these TCs have been rattling around S of a narrow ridge the separates the west Pac from the -WPO westerly exit out of Asian. It might be that the narrow ridge erodes in time and that TCs resume the more correlated recurvature - when/if that happens, would tend the N Pac into the AB phase and could see a rather abrupt expression of a +PNA regardless of the current ensmeble(s) spread(s). Indirectly we've touched on this with the MJO discussion, and why/where it's rather abrupt explosion into Phase 8-1 comes from - it may just be a delayed response to tropical forcing ...agonizingly slow to uptake into the westerlies. I tell you what - not connected to that is the AO and NAO. The NAO stays negative in the bulk mean right out through the end of week 2. The EPO falls from about +.75 to -1.25 over the next week, then sticks less than 0.0SD right out to the end, as well... That all tells me that there should be a significant and impressive early season cold loading into the N/A continent above the border latitudes with Canada. Canadian Shield ground locking stuff. If there is any realization on kind of whip-lash sudden +PNA emerging off (at last) finally recurving tropical forcing sending messages down stream then look out. First you load, then you down load Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 3 Years ago today we were finishing up our first snow event of the season. Had about 1.3" here. Two days later would be the coastal that gave the parachutes to Foxboro. That first event was a very cold airmass. The high the previous afternoon leading up to it was 38F with overcast skies. The words "holy sh*t" were never uttered more loudly, when I saw the Patriots game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Went from 58F to 49F in 1 hour, Guess the Cold Front came thru...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 The words "holy sh*t" were never uttered more loudly, when I saw the Patriots game. It was kind of fun to experience at the game. Seeing the cold rain become more slushy with time, all while the rest of the group didn't believe me when I said that they shouldn't be surprised to see it mix with snow. Of course I wasn't really expecting the full on flip to accumulating snow. Life saver really, because the snow at least kept us somewhat drier in the stadium, that cold driving rain would have been miserable to sit through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Mm, NCEP has alluded on a couple of occasions as of late that the model (ensemble clusters combined) may be having trouble ingesting tropical forcing in to the westerlies from the West Pacific. I could see that. There is an in situ -WPO in place, not very anomalously strong though. A stronger one would like nothing better than to scoop up TCs and throw them across the northern Pac. The atmosphere is on the edge - so to speak - trying to play both cards in the models. So what you end up with is this flip flopping on mass field, some rather large at that. I've seen every other GFS operational runs going from early winter to bringing summer back to the east over the last 4 or so days that these TCs have been rattling around S of a narrow ridge the separates the west Pac from the -WPO westerly exit out of Asian. It might be that the narrow ridge erodes in time and that TCs resume the more correlated recurvature - when/if that happens, would tend the N Pac into the AB phase and could see a rather abrupt expression of a +PNA regardless of the current ensmeble(s) spread(s). Indirectly we've touched on this with the MJO discussion, and why/where it's rather abrupt explosion into Phase 8-1 comes from - it may just be a delayed response to tropical forcing ...agonizingly slow to uptake into the westerlies. I tell you what - not connected to that is the AO and NAO. The NAO stays negative in the bulk mean right out through the end of week 2. The EPO falls from about +.75 to -1.25 over the next week, then sticks less than 0.0SD right out to the end, as well... That all tells me that there should be a significant and impressive early season cold loading into the N/A continent above the border latitudes with Canada. Canadian Shield ground locking stuff. If there is any realization on kind of whip-lash sudden +PNA emerging off (at last) finally recurving tropical forcing sending messages down stream then look out. First you load, then you down load Yeah nice -WPO on the euro ensembles. I do think some of the issues may be tied to some of the ongoing in the tropical Pacific, but not all of it. There is also some westery wind anomalies forecasted down the road. Currently one ongoing right now, albeit weak. Currently region 1&2 and 3 are in the negative, but region 3.4 has leveled off and region 4 just ticked back up. Certainly nice to see the western regions trying to hold their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Went from 58F to 49F in 1 hour, Guess the Cold Front came thru...........lol Definitely a non-diurnal type of day on the temp traces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 It was kind of fun to experience at the game. Seeing the cold rain become more slushy with time, all while the rest of the group didn't believe me when I said that they shouldn't be surprised to see it mix with snow. Of course I wasn't really expecting the full on flip to accumulating snow. Life saver really, because the snow at least kept us somewhat drier in the stadium, that cold driving rain would have been miserable to sit through. Wow, what a game to be at. I couldn't believe it. I had a slushy coating here, but I could not believe Foxboro. Just massive silver dollars coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Weathafella is going to be pissed. http://bostonherald.com/news/national/northeast/view.bg?articleid=1061168008&srvc=next_article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 That October event - for me - featured the biggest pancakes I've ever seen up in Ayer, mass - There was a time when the giant aggregate clumps, clumped again to one another; when one of these hit the hood of my car, it piled up to almost an inch of depth! Never had seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Wow, what a game to be at. I couldn't believe it. I had a slushy coating here, but I could not believe Foxboro. Just massive silver dollars coming down. Perfect combo there in Foxboro that day....they were under the most intense banding and also happen to have a few hundred feet of elevation there. I think the stadium is close to 300 feet. Back this way, we got a nice band, but not like the Foxboro one. We had a hard time getting under 3/4 mile all afternoon despite the high returns on radar (like 35dbz) and large flakes. Still picked up 1.5" or so...but I always think about if we had gotten that Foxboro type band if we could have posted a 6" total. At least we got 17" 2 years later, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Weathafella is going to be pissed. http://bostonherald....vc=next_article "...Last year’s mild winter and a bumper crop of nuts..." Big nut production is a wive-tale correlation to big winters, so this is/was an apparent equally enormous breakdown of that myth - ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 It was kind of fun to experience at the game. Seeing the cold rain become more slushy with time, all while the rest of the group didn't believe me when I said that they shouldn't be surprised to see it mix with snow. Of course I wasn't really expecting the full on flip to accumulating snow. Life saver really, because the snow at least kept us somewhat drier in the stadium, that cold driving rain would have been miserable to sit through. I had season tics for a number of years for the Pats and it was always better sitting thru snow then rain just for the reasons you mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 I have tons of black squirrels in my yard this year and last year i only saw two around here Weathafella is going to be pissed. http://bostonherald....vc=next_article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Perfect combo there in Foxboro that day....they were under the most intense banding and also happen to have a few hundred feet of elevation there. I think the stadium is close to 300 feet. Back this way, we got a nice band, but not like the Foxboro one. We had a hard time getting under 3/4 mile all afternoon despite the high returns on radar (like 35dbz) and large flakes. Still picked up 1.5" or so...but I always think about if we had gotten that Foxboro type band if we could have posted a 6" total. At least we got 17" 2 years later, lol. The 1st event almost was more impressive though because it was so cold. I think we even had slow blowing off the cars in Andover because of the temps..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 . Nice, Hi Scooter I don't think I ever ruled out snow showers at 4K. I wasn't sure of the whirlwind of WINDEX that you were going for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 FUK squirrels! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 FUK squirrels! Deep down Jerry you still have a place for them, We all know it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 Deep down Jerry you still have a place for them, We all know it At the end of a machete maybe. Chilly today...feels way better vs yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 change of heart? At the end of a machete maybe. Chilly today...feels way better vs yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 I don't think I ever ruled out snow showers at 4K. I wasn't sure of the whirlwind of WINDEX that you were going for. nope never said that. I said, more snow showers Tuesday you smarkley replied, where Canada? Look for yourself the word Windex was never used, good try. Fyi 1500 ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 nope never said that. I said, more snow showers Tuesday you smarkley replied, where Canada? Look for yourself the word Windex was never used, good try. Fyi 1500 ft We might as well be Canada compared to south of I90 this time of year. But what a change from 70F yesterday afternoon to 40F and falling today in the valley. MPV was 43F at 7am and now 38F at noon. Keeps dropping regardless of time of day. -SN all morning at SLK at 1600ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Started a new thread since 2000 replies may have Eek going batty. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37214-mid-to-late-october-discobanter-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 16, 2012 Author Share Posted October 16, 2012 change of heart? ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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