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Rocktober like the old days. Bridging to winter


weathafella

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it was partly sunny here until noon or so. Still pretty funny-we get a minus 11 and then a blowtorch for 2 days to wipe it right off the map....

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Allsnow in 3....2....1...

I was in Greenwich this morning, glad you guys got some sun up here. Yes Alltroll well what can you say, the numbers certainly do not lie.

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It seems as if all of the operational models except the EURO have trended towards the more progressive GFS wrt to cutoff low later this week and also how the pattern evolves next week.

Scott do you think the recurving typhoons (or stalled) are having an effect on the models and why they are behaving erraticly?

Yuppers

Seems as if lately the euro ensembles have been outdone by the GEFS

Do you think as the wavelengths lengthen it will help our cause as far as being close enough to the cold air source, provided we can keep the -EPO?

Well the period in question was the 25-31. Models always cooler towards halloweenie as we discussed, the question is how quick and how much. Models definitely came in cooler today, but there is always a wax and wane with 00z and 12z, so we'll see if it's a trend or not. Those blocks sometimes when they get within hr 240...can finally respond with model solutions coming in warmer or colder. I've noticed that before. It may be just that.

The EC ensembles have beat the GEFS too..I would not say totally outdone. However, they are sometimes -PNA happy so have to take that into account. I think yesterday and the day before the GEFS were warmer than the EC ensembles at the ends of the run. It's still gradient looking, so that's not to say we don't have a low move through SYR and torch us for a day or two, but who cares in October.

Bottom line is that we'll cool towards the end of the final week...even the weeklies had that. Just up in the air as to how much.

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just had a 5 minute downpour with more to come perfect night to kick back and relax

It's been off and on sheet drizzle and showers here for hours. Currently ra/ra-.

At this point I would be doing naked cartwheels if we could get high pressure in control with a week of sunny and dry. It has been a dreary October but looking back last year wasn't that much better in terms of sun here.

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