dryslot Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 My biz partner and i were just having a conversation as i have noticed a lot of canadien geese migrating south over the last week or so, More so then i typically see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 wow the 12z gfs is cold around day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Ahhh yes....the annual tropical cyclone merge with a mega trough on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 someday it will happen Ahhh yes....the annual tropical cyclone merge with a mega trough on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 One helluva EPO download going on with this 12z GFS run - wow. Scott - yeah, agreed. that product seems a bit amped, so why I added that I wasn't sure if were normalized somehow. We'll see, but the operational means for D8-10 off both primaries has a pretty potent looking -EPO ridge, and that does actually relate well with AB Pac/-WPO/ at least some present of MJO. I also agree that the the MJO is [probably] less correlative at this time of year due to all kind of noise damping things, but when superimposed over recurvature might just give it a kick, being the thinking there - and subsequently registered down stream effect. Time will tell.. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 That is some cold air building in North Central Canada and sliding into the Great lakes out in la la land on the GFS 498 dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 One helluva EPO download going on with this 12z GFS run - wow. Scott - yeah, agreed. that product seems a bit amped, so why I added that I wasn't sure if were normalized somehow. We'll see, but the operational means for D8-10 off both primaries has a pretty potent looking -EPO ridge, and that does actually relate well with AB Pac/-WPO/ at least some present of MJO. I also agree that the the MJO is [probably] less correlative at this time of year due to all kind of noise damping things, but when superimposed over recurvature might just give it a kick, being the thinking there - and subsequently registered down stream effect. Time will tell.. . I agree with that EPO ridge. I guess the question is how strong will it get, and how will the -PNA try to fight it off. That's the gradient pattern look we've been describing. The GFS obviously is quick to bring cooler air our way, but the EC and even Canadian are saying not so fast. But, the GEFS have won a few battle so maybe we'll see a couple of shots? And to be clear, this is after early next week when we mentioned we will probably cool down later in the week. The question is just how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Ah hahahaha ... the perfunctory autumn "snowicane" finally showing up on the GFS ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 I agree with that EPO ridge. I guess the question is how strong will it get, and how will the -PNA try to fight it off. That's the gradient pattern look we've been describing. The GFS obviously is quick to bring cooler air our way, but the EC and even Canadian are saying not so fast. But, the GEFS have won a few battle so maybe we'll see a couple of shots? And to be clear, this is after early next week when we mentioned we will probably cool down later in the week. The question is just how much. Oh yeah...we're talking late middle range onward at the earliest. My deal is the attempt to assess the last 10 days of the month ...if not to prevent a bad-karma snow in that time frame with all my might ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 BINOVC allowing temps to torch today in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 didnt northern maine get a snowicane before? lol Ah hahahaha ... the perfunctory autumn "snowicane" finally showing up on the GFS ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_Hurricane_of_1804 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 You gotta wonder ... if at some point in the last 2 million years of eastern North American history, just once did a full bird hurricane get sucked up into a bitter cold core full latitude hammer - just once. It's hinted at every year it seems. The big nor'easter of Dec' 2003, the CMC model sniffed that out at D9 as a just such a fusion of insane polarity. I think it stem-wound the bomb on down some 950mb and change, with snow on the western semi-circle. Push came to shove and while there was a TC, it stayed in the Caribbean then moved NE and out without getting involved with the westerlies like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 I read some old articles on the 1804 storm in the stacks at Cornell back years ago. They had newspapers from Boston back to like 1790, lol. I don't know where they got them from. At any rate, there was 1-2 feet of snow out this way from it and even more up into NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 So tomorrow will be the first GFS runs into Novie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 69.2F at home There goes the below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 I read some old articles on the 1804 storm in the stacks at Cornell back years ago. They had newspapers from Boston back to like 1790, lol. I don't know where they got them from. At any rate, there was 1-2 feet of snow out this way from it and even more up into NH. Let us guess ... no other snow fell through the rest of that year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 GEFS pretty chilly towards late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 GEFS pretty chilly towards late next week. It seems as if all of the operational models except the EURO have trended towards the more progressive GFS wrt to cutoff low later this week and also how the pattern evolves next week. Scott do you think the recurving typhoons (or stalled) are having an effect on the models and why they are behaving erraticly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 GEFS pretty chilly towards late next week. Yuppers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 GEFS pretty chilly towards late next week. Yuppers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Euro ensembles of a couple days ago seemed too aggressive in breaking down the huge Aleutian -EPO ridge...GEFS definitely keeping it around which would transition us to a shot of colder weather down the road once the -PNA relaxes a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Euro ensembles of a couple days ago seemed too aggressive in breaking down the huge Aleutian -EPO ridge...GEFS definitely keeping it around which would transition us to a shot of colder weather down the road once the -PNA relaxes a tad. Seems as if lately the euro ensembles have been outdone by the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Wow... simply sunsational weather on the op Euro for next week!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Yuppers AYT? (as you thought) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Perhaps the most extraordinary early-season snowstorm in New England history occurred on Oct. 9, 1804 when a hurricane roared ashore on Long Island, New York and then encountered an arctic air mass over southeastern Canada. The winds of the hurricane caused extensive structural damage from New York to Massachusetts (where the steeple of North Church in Boston was blown down). The rain turned to snow as far south as the Connecticut River Valley in Connecticut, where low elevation towns from here to the Canadian border received 4-6" of snow, and the higher terrain of Vermont up to three feet of accumulation. In Vermont, drifts buried fences and blocked roads. The Catskills of New York reported 12-18"; the Berkshires of Massachusetts received 24-30". Even coastal New Haven reported some snow (and 3.66" of rain). Reference: "Early American Winters: 1604-1820", by David M. Ludlum, American Meteorological Society, 1966, and "Early American Hurricanes, 1492-1870", by the same author Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Was hoping for some convection today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Wow... simply sunsational weather on the op Euro for next week!!!! How's this weekend looking? I see "showers" in forecast. light rain? Washout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 How's this weekend looking? I see "showers" in forecast. light rain? Washout? New Euro looks wet, see what transpires the next few days. Hope all is well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Massive massive flooding this weekend on Euro. Entire weekend is washout. Dendrites pumpkin prancing festival is ruined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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