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Rocktober like the old days. Bridging to winter

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

But it's more to the fact people obsessing about 11-15 day progs.

It doesn't always work either. 2007 and 2010 are great examples of that. As long as we don't begin to see the vortex shape up near AK, I'll role with it.

We've had some good cold, even record breaking, on our side of the globe this month...even if it was mostly in the upper midwest or Canada. Like you said, if we can just keep the AK vortex away and not let all of Canada get flushed with warm air, I'll take my chances too.
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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

You literally could set the snooze button for 2 weeks. Unless you are Steve and hoping for an SOS this weekend.

Yeah, Other then next weekend its a bore, I pretty much don't care about cold or snow for october other then its gives you a sense that we are transitioning into more of a fall season before heading into winter, Been keeping an eye on the models as they are handling the cutoff and front differently late week, Trying to finish things up around the house before the real cold and snow set in so the rain is just a PIA to getting things done

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

If this were Oct 2010, and we had just gone through last winter, the weenies would be jumping from high bridges in droves.

Just gotta see where this all goes. I've complained about last winter enough and I'm gonna be pretty busy soon, so I'll take what I can get. Complaining won't change a thing, just gotta appreciate what comes your way.

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snowman21

snowman21

Posted
Posted

Violently disagree. Cold Oct equate to good winters

I disagree with this as a general rule. Considering October temperature anomalies of 1F and greater, here is some summary data:

# good winters warm/cold October

BDL: 9 / 5

BDR: 5 / 8

BOS: 12 / 9

ORH: 13 / 7

PVD: 8 / 10

I consider good winters ones that represent the top fifth or quarter of snowiest all-time winters which equates to roughly BDL 60+, BDR 36+, BOS 50+, PVD 40+, and ORH 75+ inches.

The usual data caveats notwithstanding, the general rule of cold Octobers and good winters doesn't seem to work.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

The 1960s had several warm Octobers which certainly helps out the stats on warm Octobers a bit.

However, of the top 5 ORH winters, 4 did have cold Octobers...only 1995 did not. Oct 2004, 2000, 1992, and 1960 were all below normal. Though technically 2000 was 0.1F above the shorter term average (long term average is actually slightly warmer in OCtober do to the warm Octobers in the 1945-1970 period). So you could put that one in either category.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Man great day for getting things done outside. The sliding glass doors are open on the decks, airing out the condo and it feels nice to have a warm breeze moving through.

These days will become few and far between... and will lose to winter eventually. No need to stress about it. Just enjoy it.

Time to go for a hike in shorts...good call by Coastal a couple days ago about "enjoy the shorts on Monday." ;)

4,000ft...51F (hard to believe the wind chill was below zero a couple days ago).

2,200ft...59F

1,600ft...58F (base area)

750ft...63F (town; west slope communities are about 5F higher and pushing near 70F now!)

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

The 1960s had several warm Octobers which certainly helps out the stats on warm Octobers a bit.

However, of the top 5 ORH winters, 4 did have cold Octobers...only 1995 did not. Oct 2004, 2000, 1992, and 1960 were all below normal. Though technically 2000 was 0.1F above the shorter term average (long term average is actually slightly warmer in OCtober do to the warm Octobers in the 1945-1970 period). So you could put that one in either category.

AMOUT
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

AMOUT

His stats are still correct...a warm October or cold October doesn't really mean much up here. I think the best combo looking back is a cold October and a +NAO that month...but its not very important overall.

Just like how accumulating snow in October doesn't really matter either.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Not sure how accurate this product is, or if it is normalized after the fact - but on the surface this is an impressive and perhaps explosive on-set MJO:

ensplume_full.gif

More over, there are conflicting signals in the Teleconnectors heading toward the end of the month. The CDC EPO prog wants the EPO to be modestly negative after -1 and change SD downward correction. Balancing this against the operational means of the GFS and ECMWF, they have a disproportionately intense EPO ridge (negative phase) evolving between the 20th and 25th of the month. As usual, the reality will like verify somewhere in between.

Meanwhile, the CPC has a strong negative NAO that moderates to perhaps neutral by mid way through week 2; the CDC keeps the index modestly negative. The West Pac Oscillation is slipping slightly negative.

Two aspects about the Pac that makes me wonder if the AB phase of the North Pacific circulation may evolve with perhaps more panache than current model depictions, is that MJO superimposed by the recurvaturing 22W and it's satellite TCs. It is also possible that the MJO is getting a convective assist, but I don't think so - the reason why is because a lot of the mass of OLR is west of the actual TC entities. It seems plausible to my eyes that the MJO wave (if modeled correctly) may abruptly emerge and propagate 8--> 1, and then you have 2 teleconnectors attempting to enforce the AB Pacific phase. That would certainly all correlated with a -EPO evolving, which perhaps gives a nod to the operational idea of more amplitude with that feature.

In the background, I still see the +PNAP as favored, and that any excuse to raise western heights and drill troughing into S-SE Canada being present - albeit masked by transient beta-synoptic scale events. We call those intermediate to pattern reloads.

The PNA is forecast to conflict with all of this, though. That's headachy. The -PNA of both the CPC and CDC would appear anticorrelated to some degree, but of course less correlated results do some times take place. It may result a split flow for a while. I could almost envision cold pooling in Canada with a warmer than normals from Kansas to the MA - bigger thickness gradient than normal between 45 N and that axis for the last 10 days of the months (~).

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Well the stuff around Hudson Bay is going bye bye I think. However after this coming weekend, we should see a build up occur near the Rockies and spreading east.

Point being Eastern Canada this October is opposite of last October, as you stated having the cold in Canada at this time of year is much better.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Seems like a pretty normal progression is set in stone. NNE gradually starts winter early/Mid Novie it really settles in, CNE, Mid Nov, SNE, Turkey day and on. Hard to see any mechanism right now that would lead to a prolonged way above normal regime, if anything a gradual progression to normal or slightly below as October ends.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Point being Eastern Canada this October is opposite of last October, as you stated having the cold in Canada at this time of year is much better.

Yeah I think it helps having snow there for sure. I just meant that the srn snowpack will disappear in a few days. But further up where volatility is less...it's building. That should move SE after this coming weekend.

What you don't want to see is torch zonal flow moving into Canada.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Not sure how accurate this product is, or if it is normalized after the fact - but on the surface this is an impressive and perhaps explosive on-set MJO:

ensplume_full.gif

More over, there are conflicting signals in the Teleconnectors heading toward the end of the month. The CDC EPO prog wants the EPO to be modestly negative after -1 and change SD downward correction. Balancing this against the operational means of the GFS and ECMWF, they have a disproportionately intense EPO ridge (negative phase) evolving between the 20th and 25th of the month. As usual, the reality will like verify somewhere in between.

Meanwhile, the CPC has a strong negative NAO that moderates to perhaps neutral by mid way through week 2; the CDC keeps the index modestly negative. The West Pac Oscillation is slipping slightly negative.

Two aspects about the Pac that makes me wonder if the AB phase of the North Pacific circulation may evolve with perhaps more panache than current model depictions, is that MJO superimposed by the recurvaturing 22W and it's satellite TCs. It is also possible that the MJO is getting a convective assist, but I don't think so - the reason why is because a lot of the mass of OLR is west of the actual TC entities. It seems plausible to my eyes that the MJO wave (if modeled correctly) may abruptly emerge and propagate 8--> 1, and then you have 2 teleconnectors attempting to enforce the AB Pacific phase. That would certainly all correlated with a -EPO evolving, which perhaps gives a nod to the operational idea of more amplitude with that feature.

In the background, I still see the +PNAP as favored, and that any excuse to raise western heights and drill troughing into S-SE Canada being present - albeit masked by transient beta-synoptic scale events. We call those intermediate to pattern reloads.

The PNA is forecast to conflict with all of this, though. That's headachy. The -PNA of both the CPC and CDC would appear anticorrelated to some degree, but of course less correlated results do some times take place. It may result a split flow for a while. I could almost envision cold pooling in Canada with a warmer than normals from Kansas to the MA - bigger thickness gradient than normal between 45 N and that axis for the last 10 days of the months (~).

John, I'm not sure about those NCEP bias corrected progs. I've noticed even the reliable EC MJO progs show less of an amplitude and move further east into P2 as well. Some of that may be related to the stalled TC out that way. Nothing wrong with the wave trying to move about...I'm fine with that.

Basically noting that the wave may not be all that strong, but I could be wrong. I'm also not big on MJO correlations this time of year, unless the wave is healthy.

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