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Rocktober like the old days. Bridging to winter


weathafella

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That was awesome. What did they say about why the stratosphere warms? I wasn't watching until about 1:30, I'm curious as to how they attempted to explain that to the public.

Honestly I couldn't even make out much of anything he was trying to say at all. It was more like a confusion of words. I do know he never once mentioned ozone and I think he said something about being closer to the sun.
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Honestly I couldn't even make out much of anything he was trying to say at all. It was more like a confusion of words. I do know he never once mentioned ozone and I think he said something about being closer to the sun.

LOL...no way. when I said that I was joking...he really might have said that?

Someone needs to tell that dude that 28 miles out of 93 or whatever million miles isn't that much.

3 X 10 ^ -7 of the way there!

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LOL...no way. when I said that I was joking...he really might have said that?

Someone needs to tell that dude that 28 miles out of 93 or whatever million miles isn't that much.

He didn't really dwell on it. He was mentioning how the temps had started warming as Baumgartner entered the stratosphere and he briefly got caught up in trying to explain it and he stuttered on his words. Maybe he actually does know and slipped into a derp moment. It wasn't really a big deal. I was just listening to the play by play and it caught my attention.

So I assume the capsule descends back down relatively slowly with a release of He?

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Honestly I couldn't even make out much of anything he was trying to say at all. It was more like a confusion of words. I do know he never once mentioned ozone and I think he said something about being closer to the sun.

LOL nice...I mean just saying its because of Ozone shouldn't be too hard to mention to the public...don't need to go into detail but the fact that he mentioned being closer to the sun as a factor is just...sad.

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Euro really puts a crimp into the positive departures with the the long duration cutoff. By the time it lifts out the next strong cf will be on the way within a day. I think the cutoff idea has legs given its stability on successive Euro runs.

As modeled there the Keene pumpkin festival Sat night is a complete washout. Hopefully the timing changes.
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Euro really puts a crimp into the positive departures with the the long duration cutoff. By the time it lifts out the next strong cf will be on the way within a day. I think the cutoff idea has legs given its stability on successive Euro runs.

That could really dump on the northeast.Details TBD, but next weekend has the potential to be really wet.

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Euro really wants to develop a nice EPO it seems in the long range. OP model so we'll see what the ensembles say. I think we're going to have a winter this year and I grow more optimistic by the day. Once I have a few hours to document the reasearch I'll throw out a forecast but as of today I'm thiking 150% of climo snow for most vs 20% last year.

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Euro really wants to develop a nice EPO it seems in the long range. OP model so we'll see what the ensembles say. I think we're going to have a winter this year and I grow more optimistic by the day. Once I have a few hours to document the reasearch I'll throw out a forecast but as of today I'm thiking 150% of climo snow for most vs 20% last year.

.

Nice got to like the AO NAO tendency

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Euro really wants to develop a nice EPO it seems in the long range. OP model so we'll see what the ensembles say. I think we're going to have a winter this year and I grow more optimistic by the day. Once I have a few hours to document the reasearch I'll throw out a forecast but as of today I'm thiking 150% of climo snow for most vs 20% last year.

The reappearance of the EPO block is a great harbinger for winter but I'm not sure it teleconnects to cold weather now in October with the shorter wavelengths. The pronounced EPO block on the 12z ECM leads to a strong -PNA that keeps any cold Canadian air out of the East Coast. We get a cooler airmass associated with the ULL, but in this case the -EPO is too far west, and too early, to give us a major cold outbreak. Could be a different story in 1-2 months, however, as that block has 93-94 written all over it.

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Posted this in the tri-state weather thread but thought I'd repost here....

Great day in DXR.

Bob Hart's presentation on 1938 was pretty terrifying from an emergency management/operational forecasting perspective. The obvious issues with intensity forecasts for a ET that goes to warm seclusion as we've talked about before and the likely earlier arrival of the storm than forecast.

The new part of his talk was what is the worst case scenario? The 1893 storm was apparently undergoing fujiwhara interaction with a strong hurricane on its heels in the Atlantic. That helped steer the storm a bit closer to the coast but the interesting thing was just how horrible models handled the track given the re-analyzed initial conditions. 72 hours out the ensemble spread was basically Savannah to east of ACK.

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