NorEaster27 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 I like the forecast for town on Monday...mostly sunny with a chance of snow showers and a high near 50F. Somehow the snow showers don't seem to fit with the sky cover and temps, lol..not even rain or snow, just snow. Ahh gotta love the P/C forecasts. Columbus Day: A chance of snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 30%. this is lol, forecast for lake george at 400 feet...think its an error with the grids Sunday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Columbus Day A chance of snow. Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 I don't know if I can handle following JB on Twitter any longer. I can't believe that you still do!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 this is lol, forecast for lake george at 400 feet...think its an error with the grids Sunday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Columbus Day A chance of snow. Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Which part is the error? Seems like a reasonable forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Which part is the error? Seems like a reasonable forecast. Yeah I know what it means and it's not an error because they are thinking a chance of wet snow showers early, then sunny skies by afternoon, but the wording is off. And the p/c forecasts always specify times so I'm surprised it's not like "Chance of snow showers before 8am, otherwise mostly sunny skies..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Yeah I know what it means and it's not an error because they are thinking a chance of wet snow showers early, then sunny skies by afternoon, but the wording is off. And the p/c forecasts always specify times so I'm surprised it's not like "Chance of snow showers before 8am, otherwise mostly sunny skies..." I don't know if the software that generates those forecasts will specify times on a forecast that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Which part is the error? Seems like a reasonable forecast. Yeah, ours is similar – whenever I see a forecast like that, I assume that the high temperature and the precipitation don’t have to be coincident (e.g. could be a chance of snow showers in the early morning and a high of 52 F later in the day). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Saturday too. Just saw okx bumped temps into the mid 70s for Saturday.....I wonder if in spots these huge positive departures will be to much to overcome in the coming weeks. Ens did a fantastic job, always had the brunt of the cold to the west and as you alluded to a week or so ago it could be a quick hitting 2-3 days cool down and that looks to be exactly what it is. Just like last fall I am starting to see some azaleas and rhodies having a second bloom, of course I will take pics for Kevin, I wonder what November brings.....climo argues for warmth nov-dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 68/67 fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Sunday looks to stay in the 40's...but midnight high....might keep departures lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Just saw okx bumped temps into the mid 70s for Saturday.....I wonder if in spots these huge positive departures will be to much to overcome in the coming weeks. Ens did a fantastic job, always had the brunt of the cold to the west and as you alluded to a week or so ago it could be a quick hitting 2-3 days cool down and that looks to be exactly what it is. Just like last fall I am starting to see some azaleas and rhodies having a second bloom, of course I will take pics for Kevin, I wonder what November brings.....climo argues for warmth nov-dec Last year was leaps and bounds warmer..at least up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Last year was leaps and bounds warmer..at least up here. What does last year have to do with anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Last year was leaps and bounds warmer..at least up here. Its one week....most finish last month normal or slightly below...ac on now.....heat by Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 I don't think next week is very warm at all. Sure it will warm up ahead of the front, but SW winds and 558 thicknesses aren't a torch this time of year. It's one of those "cool" warm airmasses where the return flow source region is not very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 What does last year have to do with anything? Exactly. You said just like last year, insinuating it was similar. It simply is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Exactly. You said just like last year, insinuating it was similar. It simply is not. ? You are putting words in my mouth, as usual, I said I am seeing some Azaleas and Rhodies bloom, never once mentioned temps regarding last year, but they are happening, just ask the folks in Vt and western Maine. It will be fun adding up the numbers and facts on Sunday to see how this first week of Rocktober went..........I suspect BOS will be very cool compared to everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 BTV has the most variable temperatures of any of the New England sites if you look at standard deviations of monthly departures. It's not quite like a Midwestern site, but it is different than a place near the water like BDR, BOS, PVD, or PWM. You can start off the month +10, but you also have a shot at some big negative departures to balance it out. Maybe CAR would challenge (assuming we're limiting sites to WSO offices, and I haven't done the stats analysis.) It doesn't get BTV's quasi-Chinooks, but the extreme continental character plus the occasional coastal that runs to its west can make for interesting temp swings, such as 2/2/76 when their high (in +RA, winds, and 957 mb) was 49 and the low a few hr later was -7. (About 7 weeks later, I measured a low of -25 on 3/19 at my place in Ft. Kent, then a high of 50 on 3/20, a temp swing of 75F in less than 36 hr. In May 1977 I had a day of 86/30 with no frontal passage, at least none that caused even a cloud.) CAR's avg Feb is 3F less cold than their Jan; in 1981 it was 22F less cold. All 3 met winter months have spans of 22-23F between their coldest and mildest months, and their coldest year, 1972, is a bit over 8F below their mildest, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 ? You are putting words in my mouth, as usual, I said I am seeing some Azaleas and Rhodies bloom, never once mentioned temps regarding last year, but they are happening, just ask the folks in Vt and western Maine. It will be fun adding up the numbers and facts on Sunday to see how this first week of Rocktober went..........I suspect BOS will be very cool compared to everyone else. Well what else are you trying to insinuate by saying that? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 ? You are putting words in my mouth, as usual, I said I am seeing some Azaleas and Rhodies bloom, never once mentioned temps regarding last year, but they are happening, just ask the folks in Vt and western Maine. It will be fun adding up the numbers and facts on Sunday to see how this first week of Rocktober went..........I suspect BOS will be very cool compared to everyone else. 21 months of fire coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Well what else are you trying to insinuate by saying that? LOL. That azaleas and Rhodies are blooming???? Outside BOS it has been warm Scott lol and these absurd overnight departures do confuse the plants......it happens often, its really nothing special. I think a probable +8-10 after week one is pretty stout. Who cares though, its October........it least it will finally feel like Autumn for a couple days next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 21 months of fire coming? thats a given, and listening to some, and following climo it looks like we run the table through December, I have been reading Will say he would not be surprised at all to see a very mild December, after that all bets are off. Sure would like some holiday snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Maybe CAR would challenge (assuming we're limiting sites to WSO offices, and I haven't done the stats analysis.) It doesn't get BTV's quasi-Chinooks, but the extreme continental character plus the occasional coastal that runs to its west can make for interesting temp swings, such as 2/2/76 when their high (in +RA, winds, and 957 mb) was 49 and the low a few hr later was -7. (About 7 weeks later, I measured a low of -25 on 3/19 at my place in Ft. Kent, then a high of 50 on 3/20, a temp swing of 75F in less than 36 hr. In May 1977 I had a day of 86/30 with no frontal passage, at least none that caused even a cloud.) CAR's avg Feb is 3F less cold than their Jan; in 1981 it was 22F less cold. All 3 met winter months have spans of 22-23F between their coldest and mildest months, and their coldest year, 1972, is a bit over 8F below their mildest, 2010. You are correct about CAR. Depends on how you compute "temperature variance," but the same first-order sites are always at the top: BTV, CAR, and ALB (though technically not in New England). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 That azaleas and Rhodies are blooming???? Outside BOS it has been warm Scott lol and these absurd overnight departures do confuse the plants......it happens often, its really nothing special. I think a probable +8-10 after week one is pretty stout. Who cares though, its October........it least it will finally feel like Autumn for a couple days next week 0.6 in BDL -0.6 at PVD and 0.5 at ORH for September. Not exactly warm. Even 1.2 down in Havana..I mean BDR in September isn't exactly a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Its one week....most finish last month normal or slightly below...ac on now.....heat by Sunday? Most sites last month finished above normal, at least in the New England and NYC metro area. There are 16 first-order sites, and all but five finished above normal (generally between zero and one degree above normal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 0.6 in BDL -0.6 at PVD and 0.5 at ORH for September. Not exactly warm. Even 1.2 down in Havana..I mean BDR in September isn't exactly a torch. LOL September?? This is October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Most sites last month finished above normal, at least in the New England and NYC metro area. There are 16 first-order sites, and all but five finished above normal (generally between zero and one degree above normal) Please...........no FACTS allowed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 LOL September?? This is October. So all of the sudden 4 days of warmer weather caused all the plants to open up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Please...........no FACTS allowed So what was that I put forth earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 So all of the sudden 4 days of warmer weather caused all the plants to open up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Most sites last month finished above normal, at least in the New England and NYC metro area. There are 16 first-order sites, and all but five finished above normal (generally between zero and one degree above normal) But it was not a torch month? LL will say -0.5 is normal....to me being between 0-andu +1 for the month is pretty much normal...are you going to feel that difference either way? Yes i know ur ac is cranking and the colors are muted in central park...but honestly man 1.2 at bdr, is not exactly breaking torch records...for the whole area it was on par...we have had one torch week so far this fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 So all of the sudden 4 days of warmer weather caused all the plants to open up? Especially with almost no sun in the past several days, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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