HoarfrostHubb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 How long below 32 for a hard freeze? 2 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Yeah John, it will be close. I'm sticking with 34 for my hood. Maybe 36 for Logan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Love this torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 18z GFS 180hrs is almost a redox of the October 1996 noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 18z GFS 180hrs is almost a redox of the October 1996 noreaster. Noreaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 18z GFS 180hrs is almost a redox of the October 1996 noreaster. Good thing it's 180 hrs. out. Gives me plenty time to pick up milk and bread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Noreaster? Call it what you want. It was a lot of wind and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Already 41F here ORH at +1.8F for Oct before today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I'm terrible at forecasting outside of New England. Doing horrible with Portland, OR and that's only with high/low temp. On day 1 I was 4 off of the high and 2 off on the low...on day 2 I was 5 off of the high and 5 off of the low...today so far as of 20z 6 off of the high and I was 2 off of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 How do you interpret the mixing ratio and mean mixing ratio on bufkit? What's the importance of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I'm terrible at forecasting outside of New England. Doing horrible with Portland, OR and that's only with high/low temp. On day 1 I was 4 off of the high and 2 off on the low...on day 2 I was 5 off of the high and 5 off of the low...today so far as of 20z 6 off of the high and I was 2 off of the low. You think that's bad..I missed the high by 8 and low by 7 in Billings, MT today LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Paul, don't worry about that. Mixing ratios...etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 You think that's bad..I missed the high by 8 and low by 7 in Billings, MT today LOL I think I just realized why I have done so bad... The contest goes from 0z to 0z...so virtually the high temperature could occur early on in the period. Portland, OR being 3-HR back 0z there is only 5 PM ST...so if the temperature there with the 4:53 ST obs is like 71 but the next afternoon the temp only gets to like 69 it's the 71F that verifies I believe. Anyways though it's quite challenging forecasting outside of New England for us we're so used to our climo and out influences but going to other places we just don't fully understand their local factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Paul, don't worry about that. Mixing ratios...etc. Alright...I've been looking at that the past few days and getting quite confused by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I think I just realized why I have done so bad... The contest goes from 0z to 0z...so virtually the high temperature could occur early on in the period. Portland, OR being 3-HR back 0z there is only 5 PM ST...so if the temperature there with the 4:53 ST obs is like 71 but the next afternoon the temp only gets to like 69 it's the 71F that verifies I believe. Anyways though it's quite challenging forecasting outside of New England for us we're so used to our climo and out influences but going to other places we just don't fully understand their local factors. Where is the contest based out of? Ours goes from 06z to 06z which is better I guess. Yeah, the West is a challenge. Although last year I did pretty well in Riverton, WY. PVD gave plenty of issues..especially with the low temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Where is the contest based out of? Ours goes from 06z to 06z which is better I guess. Yeah, the West is a challenge. Although last year I did pretty well in Riverton, WY. PVD gave plenty of issues..especially with the low temp. It's on NationalForecaster.com. I finished tied for first with BGM which was the first city of the fall schedule. 6z to 6z is so much better. I think I should do better tomorrow...as of the 23z update PDX was at 66F...so by 0z they should be right around there so I'll go with something around 66F for my high for the forecast which is due by 0z...even though during the day tomorrow there they may not get out of the 50's thanks to clouds and precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 8pm obs not even up yet and i am at 43f. 2f below forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 8pm obs not even up yet and i am at 43f. 2f below forecast 41 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Just wondering what the latest update of the euro weeklies show. Do they show cold hitting the east at the end of october into November? Also what did you mean when you said earlier about the pattern could get interesting later in the month meaning october? I know I'm a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Just wondering what the latest update of the euro weeklies show. Do they show cold hitting the east at the end of october into November? Also what did you mean when you said earlier about the pattern could get interesting later in the month meaning october? I know I'm a They were slightly below normal week 3 and 4. I meant that it was different. Kind of a weird pattern in AK with almost split flow type regime there. It doesn't necessarily mean much more than that as far as our weather is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 since this covers general wx related banter, i was out in extreme NW mass on tuesday and i have to say it is breathtakingly beautiful. Just like the rest of elevated N and W new england (ESP,IMO) i was traveling down route 8 (i think) from s. vt toward N adams, took the summit drive up to Mt. greylock (if you haven't been there , please do yourself a favor and go) if i had half a brain i could upload a bunch of pics off my blackberry that i took and it was breathtaking IMO , looking over the warming hut on the appilachian trail at about 3450' in NW mass, being that high and still being in massachusetts, seems very strange to me, the weather was definitely that of a land far from boston, as it was 41f at 4pm (high i think was 42) on monday there, they have a resteraunt at the summit and even an inn for a stay over. the next day (after staying in lenox/pittsfield line) at yankee inn , me and the gf travel'd to savoy state park, i was at north pond and did the north pond loop trail which i jogg'd in about 40 minutes , i believe the pond was at 1940' or so and the jog took me up as high as 2200' or so, it look'd like it wanted to snow there, there were a few places along route 2 in extreme NW mass, that were around 2200' and had views that i could have look'd at for an hour. those places at 2k + around savoy and in favorable areas must get 100+ inches annually, another world for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 They were slightly below normal week 3 and 4. I meant that it was different. Kind of a weird pattern in AK with almost split flow type regime there. It doesn't necessarily mean much more than that as far as our weather is concerned. The split flow will almost hurt as more than it will help us if we want sustained below-average temps here or for those interested...snow threats. At least it could mean periodic severe threats across the southern Plains and such Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Where is the contest based out of? Ours goes from 06z to 06z which is better I guess. Yeah, the West is a challenge. Although last year I did pretty well in Riverton, WY. PVD gave plenty of issues..especially with the low temp. I loved forecasting out west in the challenge. Most of the forecasters like to hug MOS, but you can really take advantage of them in some of those cities. I think I finished 4th at UIL back in 08-09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 58 at bdr 47.4 .25 miles away at southport harbor lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 The split flow will almost hurt as more than it will help us if we want sustained below-average temps here or for those interested...snow threats. At least it could mean periodic severe threats across the southern Plains and such No, split flow near AK, not the western US. The ridge that resulted in AK helps shove the colder air south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 I loved forecasting out west in the challenge. Most of the forecasters like to hug MOS, but you can really take advantage of them in some of those cities. I think I finished 4th at UIL back in 08-09. This is what I've used I haven't completely hugged MOS...like I don't choose what the NAM or GFS is showing...what I've tried to do is see which one has done better the previous day. For the first day of PDX the NAM MOS had a high/low of 67/44 while GFS had 68/43 and GFSx 68/42...I went with 68/44 and the actual was 72/46... On day 2 the NAM had 67/47, the GFS had 68/43 and the GFSx had 68/44...I went 74/50...only b/c the day before MOS was too cold on both but the actual was 69/45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 No, split flow near AK, not the western US. The ridge that resulted in AK helps shove the colder air south. Ohhh...I thought you meant western US...oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 I loved forecasting out west in the challenge. Most of the forecasters like to hug MOS, but you can really take advantage of them in some of those cities. I think I finished 4th at UIL back in 08-09. Some of the diurnals out west are insane. Stanley Idaho has some of the craziest range from min to max. They went from 20F to 69F today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 37F Chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 since this covers general wx related banter, i was out in extreme NW mass on tuesday and i have to say it is breathtakingly beautiful. Just like the rest of elevated N and W new england (ESP,IMO) i was traveling down route 8 (i think) from s. vt toward N adams, took the summit drive up to Mt. greylock (if you haven't been there , please do yourself a favor and go) if i had half a brain i could upload a bunch of pics off my blackberry that i took and it was breathtaking IMO , looking over the warming hut on the appilachian trail at about 3450' in NW mass, being that high and still being in massachusetts, seems very strange to me, the weather was definitely that of a land far from boston, as it was 41f at 4pm (high i think was 42) on monday there, they have a resteraunt at the summit and even an inn for a stay over. the next day (after staying in lenox/pittsfield line) at yankee inn , me and the gf travel'd to savoy state park, i was at north pond and did the north pond loop trail which i jogg'd in about 40 minutes , i believe the pond was at 1940' or so and the jog took me up as high as 2200' or so, it look'd like it wanted to snow there, there were a few places along route 2 in extreme NW mass, that were around 2200' and had views that i could have look'd at for an hour. those places at 2k + around savoy and in favorable areas must get 100+ inches annually, another world for sure Saw your pics on FB, looked like a nice way to spend quality downtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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