powderfreak Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 LOL, lock of the century right there. That was for you after your comments about Mansfield already beating your largest event last year, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Ahh now that is actually cooler haha. Pics of that when it happens! Good luck, should be cold enough. I bet you need at least 25-26F for a homemade system unless you have one heck of a compressor. Wetbulb dependent, not air temp. Depends how low the rh is...but yes wetbulb should be down around 25 or lower I have a bunch of pics right now. I made 2' in one night last year and everyone called me a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Yeah, but check out east of the Antilles. That may be a bigger deal. oh of course - yeah I meant tropics in general. this thing in the Bahamas ain't got a prayer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 What a beauty cutting grass breaking down gardens and now chopping Ash on this amazing property I take care of. Viva rauuuuuuuuuuul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Wetbulb dependent, not air temp. Depends how low the rh is...but yes wetbulb should be down around 25 or lower I have a bunch of pics right now. I made 2' in one night last year and everyone called me a weenie Haha being called a weenie isnt a bad thing. I'm a double bunner when it comes to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 oh of course - yeah I meant tropics in general. this thing in the Bahamas ain't got a prayer Yeah that storm east of the Antilles might have an indirect effect on us next week. I like home brew stuff like the one near the Bahamas. Sometimes it looks like complete crap, but can be fun if incorporated into a mid latitude cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Yeah that storm east of the Antilles might have an indirect effect on us next week. I like home brew stuff like the one near the Bahamas. Sometimes it looks like complete crap, but can be fun if incorporated into a mid latitude cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 of the last 5 cycles of the GFS operational 3 of them have had a giant Baffin Island block - west based NAO ala carte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Aahhh yes, the Perfect Porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 That's a storm that 80-90% of people would be pumped for, but Ray would meh the storm to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Interestingly ... somewhat ... the CMC doesn't really shear 16L apart like TPC suggests should happen. It keeps it shallow and moves the llv cyclone into the NW Caribbean. It also takes 98L and turns it into some kind of a hyper hybrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Can you imagine a freakish scenario where there was teens type cold in western Ontario on the west side of a deep trough that happened to have a TC churning up its eastern flanks? TC slams across SNE knocking out all infrastructure way worse than last year's October snow, then the trough comes through and the cold arrives unabated - man, that would su uh uh-uh UCK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 60, sunny. Nice crisp fall day out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 sweet enjoy your 4-6 upslope windex I'm not sold on anything more than an inch or two...but mid winter yeah it's 3-6" of fluff no problem. . Forget snowmaking...how bout the real stuff! Another 1-3" tonight, maybe more if upslope can crank for a bit following the front. AIT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Yowsa, my p/c from Box has a low of 24F tomorrow night. That will be the end of most flying insects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Don't see why BOX has a freeze watch for BOS. Maybe because some areas could get below 32 without seeing frost? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Definitely an interesting look towards the end of the month with an almost split flow look in AK of all places and a weak -NAO block. The ridging to the north of AK actually tries to poke the PV south into Hudson Bay during this time. There are some signs we may be right on the line here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 If you go back and look (this really doesn't mean anything BTW), it's almost the exact opposite of what we had this time last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 I remember posting at the end of last week that there was at the time a low probability for a pan AFD freeze, but it was centered on Sunday morning. It's interesting that after the last 8 or so days that has moved into Saturday am time slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Sunday could be a day where Dendrite is stuck in the 40s while LL and lots of CT are prancing nude in high 60s to near 70 in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Sunday could be a day where Dendrite is stuck in the 40s while LL and lots of CT are prancing nude in high 60s to near 70 in spots. Ha...was just about to post the same thing. The 18z NAM struggles to get the sfc boundary through here all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Looks like most of us get frost or freezes fri night....enjoy snowman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Ha...was just about to post the same thing. The 18z NAM struggles to get the sfc boundary through here all day. Euro didn't look like it was in a rush to push it through either. I could see you stuck until either very late day or early evening perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Definitely an interesting look towards the end of the month with an almost split flow look in AK of all places and a weak -NAO block. The ridging to the north of AK actually tries to poke the PV south into Hudson Bay during this time. There are some signs we may be right on the line here. eh, it's typical... They'll probably go with a frost advisory for the coastal comms sometime tomorrow, and freeze warn interior SE zones and points NW. Norwood can get pretty darn cold during radiator nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Wow ! The 18z NAM has a 980mb temperature of just +1C over Logan overnight tomorrow night. 12z wasn't much warmer at +2C! Yeah, with the wind going calm, there may be some micro climates that are elevated around downtown urban Cambridge, Chelsea and Boston, but to a very close proximity it would likely be right at 0C and that is probably too discrete a scale to delineate watches. I can see where they are coming from. I gotta think places like rural Barre would be about 23F at 7am, Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 AIT? Yeah I'm thinking 1-3" is possible tonight. NWS just said with it already being 30F on the top of the mountain, with moisture streaming in from the west, there definitely should be some accums up there tonight. I'm a little surprised they are only going with 50% POPs though... its pretty much a lock it'll precipitate on the northern Spine tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER WE CAN EFFECTIVELY COOL OVRNGT TO ALLOW FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO THE APPROACH OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH A MID-UPR LVL TROUGH EJECTING EWD OUT OF THE GRT LKS RGN." I was wondering about this for tonight, too - we have 30-35dps in the area and a brief window of chance to decouple... Might get close - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Freeze watch, sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Yeah, from what I'm looking at synoptically I tend to echo KTAN on this one... THE EXPECTATION IS FOR TEMPS TO FALL AN AVERAGE OF 25 DEGREES FROM DAYTIME HIGHS TO NIGHTTIME LOWS. THEREFORE A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPR 20S...WITH TEMPS AROUND THE LOW 30S FOR SHORELINE LOCALES. HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZE WATCH ACCORDINGLY WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT NEAR-SHORE LOCALES MAY FALL TO 32 DEGREES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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